Former Congress leader and party spokesperson Sanjay Jha on Saturday, April 27, posted “11 Reasons Why” Opposition India Bloc could win the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
He said this election was a repeat of the general election held in 2004, when the Congress party ousted the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) after eight years of rule and returned to power at the Center. insisted.
according to mintSanjay Jha also predicted that the Bharatiya Janata Party could win 210 to 215 Lok Sabha seats out of a total of 543 seats, adding that the Bharatiya Janata Party “may fall below 200 seats.” Even,” he added.
“Uttar Pradesh could score the deciding blow. Change seems to be the key word across India. Barring an unexpected black swan moment, this shift in momentum could be a sign of support for the Indo-bloc. We are witnessing a repeat of 2004.” mint He quoted Jah’s words.
On the contrary, Prime Minister Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party exuded confidence that it would achieve a “historic” victory in the 2024 Sabah state election, securing more than the “400 seats” of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The party even coined the word “.Abuki Baal 400 Par
(Over 400 people this time),” he said, expressing his confidence in victory.
Why will the Indian bloc win?
The Congress leader shared some key points to ascertain why he believes the Indian bloc has a chance of coming to power this time after the second phase of India’s parliamentary elections in 2024.
He began by explaining how voters were “tired of lies, fabrications and subpar propaganda” and how they “don’t trust anyone.” But in the more than 10 years he has ruled, “the trust deficit in the Bharatiya Janata Party is the biggest,” Jha said.
“There is a huge fatigue factor with Prime Minister Narendra Modi,” he said.
“The standard accusations of dynasties, appeasement and corruption just don’t work and people see the same, or perhaps even worse, in the Bharatiya Janata Party. Strange as it may sound, he is an asset to the BJP. “It’s a liability at the same time,” he said.
Jha said that the “anti-Muslim/minority” rhetoric, the “arrogance of power led to Modi” and the “strategic move to restrict Congress’ bank accounts and arrest (current Delhi Chief Minister) Arvind Kejriwal” He emphasized how Modi’s credibility has been damaged by his failures. The Bharatiya Janata Party is “not talking about voters for the first time” and is not taking Gen Z voters seriously.
“The Bharatiya Janata Party’s vote share will decline.”
He further said that the “floating voters” who decide elections in every region had expected “governance, development, employment and a democratic mixed society”, but now “feel betrayed and have left the Bharatiya Janata Party”. ”, he emphasized.
“Floating voters decide elections everywhere, but unlike the US or UK, where voting patterns are more predictable, floating voters make up the largest proportion in India, at about 50-60%. People of India “Both the party and the Congress have stable core voter turnout at around 20% each,” Jha said in the post.
The defection of floating voters “explains the large drop in votes in the BJP seats in the first two phases. The BJP’s vote share should drop significantly, but it may be compensated for by gains in other regions. “They may focus on safe seats that will ensure their victory,” he said.
“Momentum factor”
Comparing politics and sports, Jha said both are influenced by momentum. “You win. You keep winning. But once you reverse, you go in the opposite direction, so this spell doesn’t last forever,” he explained.
“The duration of this spell will depend on resilience, quality of competition and, in many cases, luck,” he said, adding, “There are tangible tailwinds, visible momentum for the Congress and the Indian bloc.” he claimed.
He further added, “The Bharatiya Janata Party may have to adopt a stop-loss strategy soon. Usually, the situation worsens gradually, so further stages could bring more bad news.” But Mr. Modi may have already played the final card in polarization.
This post was last updated on April 28, 2024 at 7:31 p.m.
