If some of the more aggressive model predictions turn out to be accurate, this could be the hottest week in at least the last eight years.
The heat signals the official arrival of summer in the region, a departure from the pleasant warmth of spring. Despite a rainy weekend, the scenery remained vibrant and the weather was frequently perfect for outdoor fun.
Thursday and Friday Hot Appetizer Rounds
High temperatures on Thursday could reach above 90 degrees in the region, but may only stay in the upper 80s in some places. Still, they’ll be above the average of 85 degrees.
Temperatures are sure to reach at least 90 degrees on Friday, with some locations potentially reaching 95 degrees, the hottest so far this year.
A cold front will arrive late Friday, bringing some relief for the weekend. Humidity will decrease, and highs both days will likely be in the mid to upper 80s F. Sunshine will continue instead of the rain we’ve seen in recent weekends.
Next week’s heatwave
By Monday, afternoon highs will bounce back into the low to mid 90s with the possibility of some record high temperatures.
Temperatures will head into the mid-90s Tuesday and Wednesday, with further record breaking possible.
The hottest part of the day will likely be next week into the weekend and beyond, when temperatures could reach at least the mid- to upper-90s Fahrenheit.
Humidity may be modest at first but will increase as next week progresses. Late next week, the heat index, a measure of perceived temperature that takes humidity into account, could reach at least 105 degrees Fahrenheit over large swaths of the region. Heat watches and even extreme heat warnings will likely be issued if the heat index approaches 110 degrees Fahrenheit.
Future heat from a historical perspective
We’ve had fewer hot days than normal so far this year, with only one day where temperatures have risen above 90 degrees and three days below average, and there hasn’t been a single day at this point since 2005.
But we expect to make up for lost time, and we can easily hit 10+ orders later this month, which would put us in the top five.
We’ll also start to see more days with temperatures over 95 degrees. On average, we won’t have a 95 degree day for the first time until June 19th, but if not this Friday, it will likely happen sometime next week. A European modeling system is predicting at least 95 degrees every day from June 20-27. If such a long streak continues, it would be a significant historical record and would rank in the top 10.
The only other times on record that there were seven days in a June month with temperatures above 95 degrees, even if they were not consecutive, were in 2010 and 1991.
It’s not out of the question that the high could reach 100 degrees sometime late next week, which would be the first time since 2016 and the first time in a June month since 2012. There were at least one 100 degree high in June in 2010, 2011 and 2012.
With temperatures forecast to reach at least the 80s on most days, it’s considered the start of summer in Washington.
Just as we’ve declared the end of winter this year, we may also be a little late in announcing the end of spring. It’s good to see that temperatures haven’t gotten into the 90s since the record high temperatures in early May, with Tuesday’s high just 76 degrees.
This year’s late spring declaration is on par with the latest we’ve made this declaration in the past decade, which on average has been around late May.
By this time next week it should be increasingly clear that a long spring does not necessarily portend a mild summer.
