Pakistan stayed in the tournament after beating Canada, but they will be eliminated if the Ireland match is cancelled or if the US manages to get just one point from their remaining games.
S. Rajesh
With rain causing upsets and points splitting in the first round of league matches in the T20 World Cup 2024, there is a lot of work to be done for one of the favourites from each group to qualify for the Super Eight. Here is a look at the chances for each group.
What margin of results does Pakistan need to qualify?
Pakistan’s impressive win over Canada with 15 balls to spare has certainly increased their chances of qualification, but it remains dependent on the results of their other matches. Pakistan’s net run rate has now improved to 0.191, and a win against Ireland and USA losses in their two remaining matches will almost guarantee qualification. This is because the margin of victory required is small; even if USA loses their two remaining matches by a combined 10 runs (140 for the team batting first), Pakistan’s ability to score at least 112 runs batting first will be enough to win by any margin.
But Pakistan’s bigger worry is the weather. Rain is forecast for the whole week at Lauderhill, where they will face Ireland. If the US wins a point, or Pakistan loses a point because of rain, they will be out of the World Cup.
What does England need to do to qualify?
Like Group A, Group B has one team comfortably placed – Australia – but England are in a similar situation to Pakistan. England need to win their remaining two matches and hope Scotland loses their final game against Australia on June 15. However, the task is a little tougher for England as they have much more to catch up on in NRR. Scotland are at 2.164 for their win over Oman with 41 balls to spare, while England are at -1.8.
If Scotland lose to Australia by 20 runs (chasing 161), England will need to win their remaining two matches against Oman and Namibia by a combined total of 94 runs or more to surpass Scotland on run rate. Equally important, England will need to pray for sunny skies, which will give them a chance to build up points and victory margins; another rain spells defeat for England.
How unlikely is Sri Lanka?
A rainout at Lauderhill has left Sri Lanka with little chance of qualifying and they will need the weather to help them. A win against the Netherlands on Sunday would give them a maximum of three points, while Bangladesh and the Netherlands both have two points each from their two remaining matches. To stay in the running, Sri Lanka need a series of the following results:
- Thursday’s match between Bangladesh and the Netherlands in Kingstown has been called off and each team will be awarded one point. If either team gets two points, Sri Lanka will be eliminated.
- South Africa beat Nepal on Friday, and Nepal beat Bangladesh in Sunday’s match.
- Sri Lanka defeated the Netherlands at Gros Islet on Sunday.
Sri Lanka will finish the season with three points alongside Bangladesh, Netherlands and Nepal, as net run rate will come into play and they will need to outperform all three teams.
How much did the loss to Afghanistan hurt New Zealand’s chances?
Not only did New Zealand lose, but they did so by a crushing margin of 84 runs, resulting in a dismal NRR of -4.2. Meanwhile, Afghanistan won their two matches by a combined margin of 209 runs, improving their run rate to 5.225. Both West Indies and Afghanistan beat Uganda by margins of over 120 runs.
New Zealand must do the same, but first they must beat the West Indies on Wednesday in what is effectively a knockout match for New Zealand. A loss would see the West Indies qualify with six points, while a win against Papua New Guinea the following day would make Afghanistan a strong contender to join the West Indies. That would also render New Zealand’s final two matches, against Uganda and Papua New Guinea on Saturday and Monday, meaningless.
*This article was updated at 3am on June 12th following the completion of the matches between Sri Lanka and Nepal and Australia and Namibia.
S Rajesh is the Statistics Editor at ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats
