It seems more likely than ever that Xi Jinping will follow in the footsteps of Russian President Putin and plot territorial gains across the strait, and Taiwan, with a new infusion of U.S. military aid, is gearing up more vigorously to thwart that threat. For Taiwanese people, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine “brought perspective and a sense of reality to the danger on our doorstep,” Alexander Turley Yu, Taiwan’s de facto ambassador in Washington, told me.
Taiwan increased its defense budget by about 14 percent last year compared to the previous year. It extended mandatory military training from four months to one year. Like Ukraine, Taiwan is working to develop asymmetric warfare capabilities in the face of a much larger and more powerful aggressor. Taiwanese officials also note the broader society-wide involvement in Ukraine’s defense, or what Yui called “national resilience.” It was this “national resilience” that helped Ukrainian forces overcome obstacles and stave off Russian aggression in the early days of the war.
“If you don’t help yourself, people won’t help you,” Yui told me in an interview in Twin Oaks at his historic mansion, once the residence of the Republic of China’s ambassador to Washington but closed when the United States formally recognized Beijing’s Communist government in 1979. “This is one of the biggest lessons we learned from Ukraine.”
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The situation in the Taiwan Strait has always been tense, but tensions have risen in recent weeks.China launched aggressive military drills to coincide with the inauguration in May of Taiwan’s recently elected president, a politician denounced as a “separatist” in Beijing, where Taiwan remains considered a renegade province. In a flurry of hostile rhetoric toward Taiwan, China’s Defense Minister Tung Jun accused Lai and his allies in the ruling Democratic Progressive Party of being traitors to the Chinese people at a security forum in Singapore last month.
At the summit, Tung reiterated China’s new assertion about Taiwan, that Chinese leaders and their U.S. backers are pushing for its “gradual” “separation” from China. Taiwan has called itself the Republic of China since Nationalist forces fled the Communist victory in 1949, and has never formally declared independence from China, and most residents want to maintain the stable, if uneasy, status quo.
Taiwan is not recognized by most UN member states and is in diplomatic limbo. It has been denied membership in major international organizations, but it has been a source of great affection and concern among U.S. lawmakers and successive administrations. President Biden has approved some 14 arms sales to Taiwan since taking office in 2021.
Over the past three decades, Taiwan has transformed itself into a thriving, vibrant multiparty democracy that is completely at odds with Beijing’s political system. Recent polls have found that roughly two-thirds of Taiwan’s population identifies as primarily Taiwanese, rather than Chinese, a reality that runs counter to Chinese propaganda that Taiwan and its people are simply an extension of the Greater China Nation.
“more [the People’s Republic of China] They are trying to suppress Taiwan’s internal freedoms and our own sovereignty, and claim that we are their “rebel province.”in fact they are pushing us away,” Yui told me.
Taiwan’s ambassador to Washington noted that Taiwanese investment in China has been declining and cross-strait economic ties have cooled over the past decade. Yui said it would be better for the two countries to “prosper together,” but that China “must acknowledge our existence and treat us accordingly.”
Every rhetoric coming from President Xi Jinping and the Communist elites surrounding him suggests that Beijing has no intention of reconciling with the Democratic Progressive Party that holds power in Taipei, and that it sees increased American investment in Taiwan’s security as a provocative threat. Unlike the divisive debate over financial aid to Ukraine, there has yet to be any partisan disagreement in Congress over supporting Taiwan, and Yui expressed gratitude for the continued support of both Democrats and Republicans for Taiwan’s cause.
Some experts in Washington worry that U.S. full support for the Ukrainian war effort is undermining Taiwan’s ability to bolster its defenses, and some lawmakers say the U.S. should focus primarily on preventing Chinese expansionism, even if it means allowing Russia to consolidate its ill-gotten gains in Ukraine.
Yui denied the need for such trade-offs. “The United States is the leading world power,” he said, adding that it “still has the capabilities to deal with different scenarios, different battlefields and different challenges.”
Taiwan’s survival, and its ability to thwart, or more accurately, deter, Chinese aggression, has huge international implications. Yui stressed the importance of the principles of a rules-based order, and that force should not be used to create justice. He also acknowledged the enormous economic stakes. As one of the world’s leading producers of ultra-advanced semiconductors, Taiwan is a vital cog in the global economy and at the center of countless supply chains that stretch across the globe.
The Ukraine war has disrupted food and energy prices in countries far from Eastern Europe, but that disruption may pale in comparison to the disruption caused by Chinese aggression. “A conflict in the Indo-Pacific would be a much uglier scenario,” Yui said.
To do that, Taiwan and its allies acknowledged, they would need to build a set of fortresses, defense capabilities and diplomatic understandings elsewhere to prevent Beijing from acting as the Kremlin did in 2022.
“Every day Xi Jinping wakes up, he needs to look in the mirror and say, ‘I don’t think today is the time,'” Yui concluded.
