TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) – A campaign ad for Taiwan’s next president, Lai Ching-de, shows incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen driving with Lai in the passenger seat as they reflect on their years of governing together. was. Tsai then handed over the driving duties to Lai, who was joined by running mate Bikim Hsiao.
The message was clear. The idea was that Mr. Lai would lead the island in the direction set by Mr. Tsai, who was barred from running for office again after eight years in power.
Lai, 64, will take office on Monday. Continuing Tsai’s legacy will require a balance between fostering Taiwan’s informal alliance with the United States and maintaining peace with China, which claims Taiwan as its own territory and takes it back by force if necessary. It means aiming to get.
Ms. Lai is also expected to further develop some of Ms. Tsai’s domestic reforms despite the political impasse. Mr. Lai and Ms. Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party have lost their parliamentary majority, making it difficult for Mr. Lai to pass legislation, including approval of key defense budgets.
Tsai, 67, is Taiwan’s first female president and one of the few female leaders in Asia not from a political dynasty. Her legacy will be tied to defending the island’s sovereignty from China while rebuilding it as a reliable partner to the United States and other democracies. She will also be remembered for overseeing the legalization of same-sex marriage, steering Taiwan through the coronavirus pandemic, and pushing for the island’s military modernization.
She left office with high approval ratings. A recent poll by broadcaster TVBS showed that 42% of respondents were satisfied with her performance over the past eight years. His predecessor, Ma Ying-jeou, resigned with an approval rating of around 23%.
Tsai’s popularity partly reflects a shift in Taiwan’s identity. The majority of residents now identify as Taiwanese rather than Chinese and want to be ruled separately from Beijing. Taiwan and China have had different governments since the 1949 civil war, when the Kuomintang fled to Taiwan and the Chinese Communist Party took control of the mainland.
Tsai has pivoted from the more pro-China policies of her former ruling party, the Kuomintang. By the end of Ma’s term, many Taiwanese were becoming anxious about Ma’s frequent interactions with the Chinese government, said Sherry Riger, a Taiwan expert at Davidson University.
Beijing has called Tsai a separatist after refusing to recognize the 1992 Consensus, an agreement that says Taiwan is part of “one China.” But while Mr. Tsai distanced himself from Beijing, he kept the door of communication open.
“President Tsai has always said that Taiwan is happy, willing and committed to dialogue with China under her leadership,” said Wen-ti Song, a fellow at the Washington-based think tank The Atlantic. “However, these are not conditions that were simply imposed unilaterally by China.” Council.
Not only has China refused to talk to Ms. Tsai, but it has also increased its military and economic pressure on the island, sending warships and military aircraft near the island every day.
The Chinese government prevents countries with whom it has diplomatic relations from having formal relations with Taipei. During Tsai’s tenure, he stepped up a campaign to lure the island’s few diplomatic partners. During Tsai’s tenure, China withdrew almost half of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies, leaving only 12 countries.
Tsai countered by diversifying trade ties and increasing military spending, including submarine development. Her outgoing Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said she had also elevated Taiwan’s standing on the international stage.
“Her leadership style is very moderate, but at the same time she deals with any kind of international pressure very firmly,” he said.
“She strengthened awareness around the world of Taiwan’s connections to the international community,” said Bonnie Glaser, director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program in the United States.
“TSAI2.0”
Mr. Lai, who served as vice president during Tsai’s second term, had a strong impression early in his career that he was more of a hotshot businessman. In 2017, he called himself a “pragmatic activist for Taiwan’s independence,” drawing a rebuke from the Chinese government. He has since softened his stance and now supports maintaining the status quo across the Taiwan Strait and possible talks with Beijing.
“Mr. Lai has spent the past two years convincing the world that he is Tsai Ing-wen 2.0,” said Lev Nachman, an assistant professor at National Chengchi University.
Lai would further strengthen Tsai’s efforts to strengthen ties with the United States, which does not formally recognize Taiwan as a country but is bound by its own laws to provide the island with means of self-defense. .
Depending on how you look at it, Lai’s biggest foreign policy uncertainty may come from Washington. Nachman said the new administration of Donald Trump could upset the balance that Tsai has achieved in Taipei’s relations with Washington and China.
What’s next at home?
During Ms. Tsai’s tenure, Taiwan became the first society in Asia to legalize same-sex marriage, but critics argue that Ms. Tsai avoided political responsibility by leaving decisions to the Supreme Court and a series of referendums. ing.
She oversaw controversial pension and labor reforms and extended the conscription period to one year. She also launched a military modernization drive, including a program to build indigenous submarines at a cost of more than $16 billion each.
Tsai’s leadership during the coronavirus pandemic has divided public opinion, with most praising Taiwan’s initial ability to contain the virus largely outside its borders, while others have criticized Taiwan’s push for rapid testing as the pandemic progresses. He criticized the lack of investment.
The Atlantic Council’s Song said Tsai’s mixed successes on the domestic policy front contributed to the Democratic Progressive Party’s historically weak showings in local elections. Tsai resigned as party chairman due to the party’s poor performance in the 2022 elections. Although Mr. Yori won the presidential election, the Democratic Party lost its majority in parliament.
“Many of the successes of President Tsai’s government have come in terms of foreign policy and related international activities, and there is still room for improvement, for example, in terms of reaching a more grassroots party level.” Mr. Song said.
