Tesla is set to report earnings after the bell on Wednesday.
Here’s what analysts are expecting, according to an average of estimates compiled by LSEG:
Earnings per share: 54 cents expectedRevenue: $26.37 billion expected
Following two straight year-over-year revenue declines, Tesla is expected to return to growth, for one quarter at least, with analysts expecting an increase of 4.7% from $25.18 billion a year earlier. However, early projections for the fourth quarter show revenue dropping 1.2%, according to LSEG.
On Tesla’s last earnings call in July, CEO Elon Musk and finance chief Vaibhav Taneja warned shareholders about the impact of higher tariff costs and the expiration of federal electric vehicle tax credits.
The end of the tax credits, tied to President Donald Trump’s spending bill, pulled sales forward for Tesla and other electric vehicle makers as consumers rushed to take advantage of the incentive before it went away.
Earlier this month, Tesla reported deliveries of 497,099 vehicles for the third quarter, a record, on total production of 447,450 vehicles. However, through the first three quarters, deliveries stood at around 1.2 million, down about 6% compared to the same period of 2024.
Deliveries are the closest approximation of vehicle sales reported by Tesla but are not precisely defined in the company’s shareholder communications.
In the second quarter, Tesla reported automotive revenue of $16.7 billion, including sales of auto regulatory credits that amounted to $439 million.
Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald wrote in a note on Tuesday that they will be focusing on Musk’s commentary and updates from Tesla on “several upcoming key material potential near-term catalysts.” They include progress with Tesla’s Robotaxi-branded service in Texas and California, production and sales of the company’s new lower-cost Model 3 and Y vehicles and the adoption of its premium driver assistance systems in China and Europe.
The analysts, who have the equivalent of a buy rating on the stock, said they’re also watching for the launch next year of the company’s Cybercab, a two-seater robotaxi with no steering wheel or pedals, along with updates on Tesla’s humanoid Optimus robots, which are not yet commercially deployed.
Tesla’s third quarter was marked by a continuing sales slump in Europe, driven partly by consumer backlash against Musk, his incendiary political rhetoric and activism, as well by competition from EV makers like Volkswagen and BYD.
The stock, which plummeted to start the year, has rallied back and is now up almost 7% in 2025. That still trails major indexes and most of its megacap peers.
S&P Global last week released a report explaining that even with the easing of tariff burdens, demand headwinds in the auto industry persist in the face of slowing disposable income growth, consumer pessimism and fluid trade policies.
Still, the researchers revised their U.S. light vehicle sales estimates upward by about 2% to 16.1 million for 2025, and 1.3% to 15.3 million in 2026.
Tesla’s brand ranking declined to the 25th spot on the Interbrand 2025 Best Global Brands list out earlier this month, from 12th in 2024. Automotive competitors including Toyota, Mercedes and BMW all bested Tesla, with Toyota the highest at No. 6.
“Tesla was once the main disruptive force in the automotive industry,” the report said. “However a combination of rising competition in the EV market and Elon Musk’s attention being diverted to political activities has led to a decline in profits in 2024 and financial forecasts for 2025.”
The report added that, “A lack of innovation in products and low-cost competitors has led to concerns about Tesla’s ability to sustain high margins.”
Tesla executives will host a call with analysts at 5:30 p.m. ET.
On an online forum Tesla uses to let investors submit questions ahead of earnings calls, shareholders mostly wanted to know about the company’s robotaxi pilots and plans. They also asked about how AI is driving demand for Tesla’s energy products, which include big, backup batteries and solar photovoltaics that can power datacenters and other facilities.
WATCH: Why Morningstar’s Seth Goldstein has a sell rating on Tesla
