AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — The 2024 primary election season is nearly halfway through with few major shakeups so far, with only one U.S. House member defeated and incumbents holding overwhelming advantages in state legislatures.
But Tuesday’s runoff elections in Texas will be a test for two powerful Republicans: Rep. Tony Gonzalez, who has divided the party over guns and the border, and Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan, whose push to impeach Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has infuriated the party’s far right.
The fight to save jobs has exposed the risks of dissent within the Republican Party, and both candidates have suffered setbacks in what has become a bitter and costly race. Gonzales’ supporters warn that a loss could open up an opportunity for Democrats to flip a traditionally moderate district in November, while a change in leadership in the Texas House could shift policymaking in the state further to the right.
“You have to be a brawler,” said Bill Miller, a longtime Republican strategist in Texas. “And that’s the way it goes. If you’re not willing to do that, you’re an outcast.”
Other runoff elections in Texas are also attracting attention.
Katrina Pierson, a former spokeswoman for Donald Trump, is running for state representative in a Dallas suburb. Republican voters are also choosing her to challenge Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar, who was indicted this month on conspiracy and bribery charges and has maintained his innocence.
Only one member of Congress has dropped out of a primary this year: Republican Rep. Jerry Carl of Alabama, who lost to incumbent Rep. Barry Moore in an unusual primary after his state was forced to redistrict.
Unlike other Republicans, Gonzalez, who drew five challengers and won 45% of the vote in March, faces a test in the primary: He will face Brandon Herrera, a gun-rights YouTube creator who calls himself “AK Guy,” in the district where the 2022 Uvalde school shooting occurred.
“The party in Texas has moved even further to the right than where the Republican Party is right now in Washington,” said Brian Smith, a political science professor at St. Edward’s University in Austin, Texas, who called the fight within the Texas GOP “a battle for the soul of the party.”
Gonzalez, who has the backing of party heavyweights including Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson, ignored a rare reprimand from his state party last year after he voted for federal same-sex marriage protections and bipartisan gun control legislation after the Uvalde school shooting.
“My voting record when it comes to the Constitution is very strong,” the 20-year Navy veteran said in April. “I took an oath when I was 18 to defend the Constitution, and I’ve never stopped doing that. … We can defend the Constitution and we can protect our children. It doesn’t have to be one or the other.”
Herrera blasted Gonzalez on social media, calling his campaign “desperate.”
“Funny that 3 months ago I was ‘just a YouTuber’ and ‘not a serious candidate,'” Herrera wrote on X, noting that Johnson attended a fundraiser for Gonzalez. “When your opponent is on the defensive, it’s usually not a sign they’re going to win.”
At the state level, Phelan’s two sessions leading the Legislature would normally be considered a bonanza for conservatives.
Since 2021, Texas has passed some of the strictest abortion laws in the country, upheld Governor Abbott’s high-profile anti-immigrant measures, banned gender-affirming medical care for minors, and eliminated diversity, equity, and inclusion programs in higher education.
But like Gonzalez, Phelan has been criticized by the state party for “lacking fidelity to Republican principles and priorities.” Republican hardliners have targeted Phelan since the House voted to impeach Paxton last year and he was acquitted in his Senate trial.
Paxton led the primary campaign to oust Phelan, who came in a close runner-up to oil and gas consultant David Covey, giving Phelan an uphill battle to win the nomination and upending the party’s leadership in the state Legislature if he loses.
