Tuesday has been described by Thai media as “judgment day” or “day of catastrophe” as a court will hear evidence against Prime Minister Surendra Thavisin, which could lead to his suspension and the collapse of the government; billionaire former party leader Thakin Shinawatra will be formally charged with defaming the monarchy; the opposition Forward Party may find out whether to disband; and judges will decide whether to suspend the election of new senators.
Some of these may happen, none of them may happen, or none of them may happen at all, but the vortex of uncertainty is spooking the stock market and making the public wary of behind-the-scenes manipulation to change the political landscape.
This week in Asia we unpack another tumultuous week in Thai politics.
Prime minister
Property tycoon and political newcomer Suretta Thavisin, 62, became prime minister despite losing elections last August. Instead, his Progress Party won the most seats and votes but was blocked from forming a government by appointed senators. Suretta’s Pheu Thai party then swept aside the Progress Party and took power in an uneasy coalition with his former conservative foes.
Prime Minister Suretta has been busy traveling the globe to try to attract inward investment to Thailand after nearly a decade of economic decline under the rule of former General Prayuth Chan-o-cha, but he has struggled to win public support. Policies have struggled to emerge from within a reluctant coalition government, whose key pledges include a higher minimum wage and a generous cash transfer program.
The Constitutional Court will hear further evidence into allegations that Suretta knowingly violated the law by appointing a pro-Thaksin lawyer to the cabinet while in prison. Suretta could be suspended by the court, setting off a collapse of his government and fresh maneuvering over who would lead the new coalition government.
He has vowed not to resign or dissolve parliament, and has signalled he is confident of being cleared of the charges. He said in a social media post on Monday that he had COVID-19, raising the possibility that he might not be able to appear in court the next day, potentially delaying the trial.
Whatever the outcome, analysts say the move against him has destabilized his government and may be difficult to stabilize.
Opponents
Young, reform-minded and unafraid to stand up to symbols of power, the Forward Movement Party emerged as Thailand’s largest political force in last year’s elections.
But radical reforms to business, politics and criminal law, designed to shield the powerful monarchy from criticism, proved too harsh for the regime.
The party fought back forcefully, first using the Senate to block senior party official Pita Limyaroenrat from winning the votes to become prime minister, and then launching legal action targeting the party itself.
The most serious case is being heard by the Constitutional Court, which will decide (probably on Tuesday) whether the movement calling for the amendment of the Royal Defamation Law “112” deserves to be dissolved as an attempt to overthrow the monarchy.
Move Forward has denied the allegations, describing them as a blatant political attempt to slow the party. Pita said that even if the party is banned, even if he and other key leaders are banned from politics, the party will come back in a different guise with the same ideas.
Move Forward’s predecessor, Future Forward, was dissolved by the same court in 2020, sparking mass protests. The party won more than six million votes in the 2019 election. Four years later, Move Forward won 14 million votes and is the largest single party in parliament. Dissolving the party risks sparking new protests.
The man in the middle
Thaksin Shinawatra, the former owner of Manchester City Football Club and billionaire telecoms tycoon, remains at the heart of the rift between Thailand’s establishment and elected politicians.
Thaksin, who won landslide elections in 2001 and 2005, was ousted from power in a coup in 2006 and forced into exile in 2008 amid corruption charges.
But until last year, his party continued to win the popular vote whenever the generals allowed elections to be held. A 2014 coup toppled the government of his sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, underscored the deep-rooted animosity between Thailand’s conservative establishment and the Shinawatra brand of politics. Nevertheless, Thaksin made a spectacular return to Thailand last year, just in time for the Pheu Thai Party, which he founded, to break away from the Progress Party and take power.
Thaksin’s rehabilitation is widely seen as part of a deal with his former enemies who ousted him, and to neutralize the more immediate threat of advance. Now back in Thailand, Thaksin has become a regular presence at meetings with politicians and the public. He will be formally charged on Tuesday over an interview he gave to South Korean media in 2015. But the charge of violating Article 112 is serious and cannot be taken lightly, even if he is ultimately found not guilty.
Experts say the charges have added new turmoil to Thailand’s already turbulent political landscape.
“One of the most difficult aspects of assessing Thai politics right now is that we actually have no real information about what was involved in the grand compromise between the Pheu Thai Party and the conservative parties that formed the Surettha coalition government last year,” said Ken Rohatthepanont, a doctoral student in political science at the University of Michigan. “One can speculate that one of the reasons for the increased tensions is that the institutional privileges of the conservatives are disappearing.”
Senator
Thailand’s 250 senators were appointed by the government of former Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha, who seized power in a coup and remained in power for nine years.
But their term has ended.
On Tuesday, the Constitutional Court is due to rule on whether the complex rules for electing new senators are unconstitutional, which could mean the old guard stays in office for the time being.
The old Senate has de facto power to veto major bills and reject candidates for prime minister who are seen as unfavorable to the establishment, thanks in large part to Prawit Wongsuwon, a 78-year-old former general who was in the ruling coalition and an expert at tilting the battlefield in favor of the elite. Any dilution of the Senate’s power could affect Wongsuwon’s own influence.
Last week, Thaksin suggested Prawit was behind the latest racket, making him one of the few candidates eligible to become prime minister if Suretta is ultimately ousted.
