The term “political nihilism” may sound completely foreign to Thais, but its essence perfectly captures what is happening within Thai politics.
I keep coming across this phrase as I read about American politics ahead of the 2024 presidential election. Despite the lack of a concrete definition, political nihilism is inherently negative. This can represent a situation where politicians will do anything to further their policies, even if it is harmful to the country. Harsh political and socio-economic realities fuel public disillusionment, apathy, radical skepticism, and even a turn toward anarchism.
The nihilistic acceptance of chaos that seems to be prevalent in the United States has not yet caught on in Thailand. Nevertheless, for Thais accustomed to the vicious cycle of political instability and coups, feelings of hopelessness and resignation are not uncommon. I would further argue that the overwhelming presence of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the unofficial leader of the ruling coalition’s largest party, Thaksin Shinawatra, is sending the country into a downward spiral. Here’s why:
First, Thaksin became the embodiment of institutional injustice and double standards. There is little need to dwell on his smooth return from self-imposed exile and release from detention as a clear manifestation of the politicization of justice in Thailand. Having said that, the Thai people have never seen such concerted support for politicians from key institutions, including the previous and current governments, and various state institutions such as the Department of Corrections and the Police General Hospital. It is important to emphasize that this is not the case.
Mr. Thaksin’s actions after his arrest only add fuel to the fire. Rather than remain silent to avoid criticism of him, the paroled Thaksin wasted no time in visiting major provinces in Thailand’s north and south. He was seen visiting development sites and mingling with political bigwigs, local officials and businessmen, effectively flaunting his regained influence.
Thaksin’s blatant disregard for ethical considerations led to the promotion of Phichit Chuenbang, a trusted lawyer of the Shinawatra family notorious for attempting to bribe Supreme Court officials, in Thailand’s recent cabinet reshuffle. It is no wonder that Thaksin is suspected of being involved.
Second, Thaksin is not afraid to engage unilaterally with foreign actors to pursue his political and business objectives. One might have hoped that Mr. Thaksin would at least limit his “power projection” into the domestic sphere, but those expectations turned out to be completely misplaced. Since his release in February, Thaksin has already met with former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, and factions competing with Myanmar’s military junta, making it clear he is playing a role as mediator in the country’s conflict. It seems like you’re asking for it.
All of this reflects poorly on Thailand. Allegations of conflict of interest are difficult to dismiss once a powerful individual with no formal role or authority is involved. These concerns come alongside growing doubts about what Saudi Arabia’s national interests are, who actually conducts its foreign policy, and whether it serves broader regional interests.
In the case of Myanmar, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has shown growing unity in its approach, and new informal initiatives have been established, as Thai security expert Panitan Wattanayagone highlighted. It should complement a formal framework. Thaksin’s opaque, casual, and perhaps belated entry into the Myanmar conflict, clearly lacking a comprehensive understanding of its complexity and increasingly zero-sum nature, is likely to bear fruit like a desert tree. would only complicate the administration of foreign policy and security experts.
Prime Minister Sureta Thavisin is already struggling to distinguish her leadership from Thaksin’s influence. Now, the just-restructured foreign ministry, led by Thaksin’s close aide Maris Sanjanpongsa, faces the same challenge. And I am concerned that Maris’ statement expressing comfort over Thaksin’s intervention in Myanmar does not give a good impression to anyone outside of Thaksin’s circle.
Third, political gaslighting increased with Thaksin’s return. To be fair, Thaksin is not personally involved in public gaslighting. But his confirmation will give power to those, including his daughter, who officially heads the Thailand Contribution Party.
Pethunthaan Shinawatra recently said that the independence of the Bank of Thailand (BOT) is an “obstacle” to solving the country’s economic problems. This controversially amplifies the Party’s already persistent and public pressure on the BOT to lower interest rates and justify the government’s rhetoric that Thailand’s economy is in crisis. Special borrowing for digital wallet benefits has become easier. This level of political encroachment on central banks is unprecedented even by global standards.
Paetontarn has every right to criticize BOT, but her argument is incredibly bold. Central bank independence is a universal norm and, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), must be upheld. In the words of the IMF, “Central bank independence is important for price stability, and price stability is important for consistent long-term growth.”
Further boosting the BOT’s credibility, experts largely agree with BOT President Sethaphut Sutiwartnarephut’s position that Thailand’s economic woes are rooted in structural deficiencies, and the Contribution of Thailand Party’s economic stimulus plan I continue to have doubts as to how exactly these measures will “solve” the issue. In fact, the party has not presented a convincing justification.
The problem is that there are definitely voices that are swayed by Mr. Petontarun’s message. This message will solidify the narrative that paints the BOT as an elitist organization filled with unelected technocrats and indifferent to the well-being of ordinary people.
As things stand, Thaksin’s dominance seems unstoppable. The military and conservative forces are now dispersed, with powerful pro-Thaksin and anti-Thaksin factions disappearing. As recent polls have shown, the Reform Progressive Party remains attractive and perhaps the only option left for disillusioned voters. Still, as I wrote earlier this year, the Move Forward leadership also has ties to Thaksin. This is worth noting.
Looking at this depressing situation, all I can say is, “I feel sorry for Thailand.”
