An analysis of the most underrated quarterbacks in the NFL can take as many different forms as there are quarterbacks.
You might approach these drills from a film perspective, taking into account the nuances of offensive and defensive formations. You might also emphasize pre-snap adjustments and a QB’s ability to manipulate defenders, as Tom Brady has done recently to wow football watchers. You might also base your analysis on dog levels, whether the QB is playing for a hometown team, and whether that team has won a lot of games in recent seasons.
You might not be surprised to learn that I’m approaching this analysis from a purely analytical standpoint, emphasizing metrics that capture a quarterback’s accuracy and efficiency. Some of you may not like this approach. That’s OK. I think there are statistical pieces here that suggest the 2024 campaign could be surprisingly good for some or all of the following four signal callers.
Geno Smith (SEA)
The reason the 2023 Seahawks offense was disappointing is because they were so good on first and second downs. Only the 49ers were noticeably better on early downs than Geno’s Seahawks offense last season.
Where the Seahawks fell apart was late, when defenses could tune out and attack with predictable dropbacks. Perhaps this has something to do with an offensive line that was rated the fourth-worst pass-blocking unit in the league by PFF. After all, Geno faced the fourth-highest pressure rate (25.5%) among 33 subject QBs.
I am (unfortunately) on record as saying that I thought Geno would be a huge flop in Seattle’s short time as a starter after they parted ways with Russell Wilson, and I never thought any QB could succeed in the Jets’ clown-like organization, which reminds me of Sam Darnold’s prospects as a starter outside of New York.
Geno has really changed my opinion of my harsh opinions over the past two years. On top of that, Seattle has the eighth-highest expected points added per play (EPA) since the start of the 2022 season and the second-highest dropback success rate, behind the Niners, who are also known as an EPA machine. Geno is arguably one of the top passers in the NFL, especially when the Seahawks use play-action. In 2023, only two quarterbacks had better net adjusted yards per play-action pass attempt than Geno: Lamar Jackson and Brock Purdy. Geno ranked fourth in completions above expectations (CPOE) on those attempts.
NBC Sports’ Chris Simms on Geno Smith Quarterback ranking: 19thsaid Smith’s arm strength and talent ranks just below Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. “They ask him to make a lot of big-time passes and plays,” Simms said, adding that unlike some of the game’s elite passers, Smith still throws head-scratching passes when he gets too aggressive or sticks to his initial reads. “He’s a little better when he’s a little less aggressive.”
Under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubbs, Geno and Seattle’s trio of receivers (and Noah Fant) will thrive. The offense Grubbs ran at Washington worked because Michael Pennis got the ball out on time and avoided negative plays. That’s exactly what Geno has done for two years as a Seahawks starter. Like Pennis, Geno doesn’t get sacked. His pressure rate to sack rate (14%) in 2023 was the sixth-lowest in the NFL. The Seahawks will attempt more passes between 10 and 19 yards this season. That’s a good range for Geno, and an underutilized range. Only 18% of his attempts in 2023 were between 10 and 19 yards.
Seattle’s miserable 2023 season overshadowed Geno’s solid play, and I’m not worried about Sam Howell taking Geno’s spot after he leaves the team. He made almost comical efforts to ensure Geno remained in the starting lineup.I think he’s significantly underrated heading into the 2024 season.
Brock Purdy (SF)
This is my official surrender to Purdy. Since coming on the scene in 2022, I have made thoughtless and spiteful comments on podcasts and social media about Purdy being Kyle Shanahan’s centerpiece. Sorry to Brock. By the start of the 2023 season, it was clear Purdy was not the second coming of Jimmy G. Purdy could move, create outside of structure, and save plays when things didn’t go according to Shanahan’s plan.
Purdy, like his predecessor Garoppolo, is a machine sent from the future to add expected points to the 49ers offense. I won’t bore you with various statistics and metrics, but trust me when I say Purdy is the NFL’s most efficient passer through his 27 starts in the NFL. The baby-faced Purdy is a dangerous guy in a San Francisco offense that has a more efficient rushing attack than most teams’ passing attacks. Classifying Purdy as a check-down artist was true in 2022, when he averaged 6 yards per attempt through the air. That classification was less true in 2023, when Purdy averaged 8.2 yards per attempt through the air. Not surprisingly, Purdy converted 64% of his passes through the air in 2023 for the best conversion rate in the league.
Chris Sims as Purdy 17th-best quarterback in the leaguePurdy is a “system quarterback, and a system plus,” an ideal formula for a modern offense based on station-to-station passing.
“He’s a really good athlete,” Sims said. “He can scramble, he can throw. … His feel, his touch is really good.”
Sims said Purdy’s “extremely long” throwing motion isn’t ideal and could get him in a tough spot when he’s under pressure or with his first lead covered. “It takes him a full minute to get the ball ready and throw it,” Sims said.
Purdy runs Shanahan’s offense as well as any quarterback. Last year, he was 16.5% better than expected on mid-range passes (10-19 air yards). No one else came close. His 55% dropback success rate led all quarterbacks, and his adjusted EPA per dropback is well above second-place Patrick Mahomes’ since the start of the 2022 season. And Purdy has also done a great job of avoiding negative plays, with only four quarterbacks in 2023 posting a lower pressure-to-sack rate.
The Athletic’s Matt Burrows was suggested We reported this week that Purdy’s impressive showing in 2023 may have earned him favor from the traditional run-first, run-addicted Shanahan, and Burrows said the Niners’ run in the playoffs last year wasn’t the same conservative offense they had with Shanahan as the play-caller.
If San Francisco’s offense becomes more Purdy-centric, he’ll have a real chance to become an elite QB. Or he’ll prove he doesn’t belong there. As a spreadsheet warrior, it annoys me that Purdy’s bad throw rate in 2023 is 16.4 percent, the same as Josh Dobbs and Will Revis.
Dak Prescott (DAL)
Prescott has been unfairly maligned by QB Wins advocates for a couple of mediocre games in the postseason, but he is undoubtedly an elite NFL quarterback and has been for a long time.
Only Patrick Mahomes has performed better than Dak in the composite EPA/CPOE metric since the start of the 2022 season, and no other signal-caller has had a higher dropback success rate (52.6 percent) than Dak over the past two seasons.
All of that faded away with the Cowboys’ humiliating loss to the up-and-coming Packers in last year’s postseason. In 2023, Prescott led the NFL in touchdown passes (36), third in adjusted yards per attempt (8.2), first in completions (410), third in yards (4,516), first in yards completed through the air (2,507), fourth in air yardage conversion rate (57%) and first in on-target pass rate (83%). Dak is a rare volume passer who happens to be efficient at that volume. If he gets it right, it’s a great combination.
You won’t hear any breathless critiques of Prescott as anything more than a borderline starter on the morning sports talk shows, nor will you hear talk about Dak in 2023 being a much improved mid-level passer, as measured by both CPOE and adjusted net yards/attempts (he was sixth in the latter category last season).
Freed from Kellen Moore’s deeply flawed and predictable offense, Prescott struggled in Mike McCarthy’s system last year and expects a similar outcome in 2024. What if Dallas continues to miss the Super Bowl? The Super Bowl is overrated.
Jacoby Brissett (NE)
As The Athletic’s Chad Graf reported last week, Brissett is projected to be the starter heading into training camp, according to Patriots coaching staff and reporters covering the team.
That probably isn’t a surprise, considering New England’s quarterback of the future, Drake Maye, was considered something of a developmental project for a team that will likely take years to regain its former glory. Unless Maye impresses the coaching staff during camp and the preseason, Brissett will likely be under center in Week 1 against the Bengals.
What can be said about Brissett is that he was pretty good the last time he was a starter. With the Browns in 2022, while the team awaits the suspension of Deshaun Watton, Brissett ranked third among eligible quarterbacks in completion percentage above expected, a marked change from when he was the starter with the Colts in 2019, when he was 28th among 30 eligible quarterbacks in CPOE. Perhaps this has to do with Kevin Stefanski’s quarterback-friendly offense, which has finally allowed Joe Flacco to become elite in 2023.
In 2022, Brissett was middling in dropback success rate (49%) and excelled on mid-range attempts (10-19 yards from the line of scrimmage). Only Lamar Jackson had a better QB rating on those attempts, and only Jackson and Tua had higher net adjusted yards per attempt on those attempts. He also excelled at limiting negative plays, with a low turnover-worthy play rate of 3% per PFF and the 12th-lowest pressure rate on sacks in the league in 2022.
Brissett struggled as a downfield player in the majority of his 48 games as an NFL starter and likely won’t mean much in check-down leagues, where New England’s offense doesn’t have many downfield burners.
Brissett was better than Watson in every way in 2022. The Browns were better because Brissett was a capable and strong game manager. I wouldn’t be surprised if Brissett remains the Patriots’ starter for a long time in 2024, unless New England’s season suddenly deteriorates and the coaching staff replaces Maye and tries to figure out what the young man has and doesn’t have.
