The 49ers’ offense is unique in its ability to throw such a wide variety of pitches at opposing defenses that they can’t play as fast as they want or need to to counter San Francisco’s plethora of playmakers. Head coach Kyle Shanahan’s ability to understand what defenses want to do against certain offenses and then design play calls to counter those defensive calls is why the 49ers are able to lead the league on offense.
One trend from last season suggests the 49ers may be heading in a new direction.
To counter modern offenses that have moved to a faster, more horizontal approach, defenses have become smaller and lighter in an attempt to slow down the ultra-efficient modern passing attack.
San Francisco’s answer appears to be to get bigger.
Last year, the 49ers played 11-man formations (one running back, one tight end) just 38.4% of the time, the second-lowest rate in the league, and 42.6% in 2022, according to Summer Sports.
The 21-person lineup (two tight ends, one running back) continued to be the go-to with a usage rate of 37.8%, the second-highest rate in the league and tied with the league-best 34% from the year before.
However, the 49ers used the 22-man slack heavily (2 TEs, 2 RBs). Their 22-man slack usage rate of 9.1% was second-highest in the league and 7.8 percentage points higher than the NFL average according to Sumer Sports. It’s also 3.0 percentage points higher than the 2022 22-man slack usage rate.
This 22-man personnel composition is especially interesting given the 49ers’ free agent signing of tight end Logan Thomas. Thomas is a bona fide pass-catching tight end in the NFL, and he caught as many passes last season (55) as former 49ers backup tight ends Ross Dwelley and Charlie Warner did in their careers with San Francisco.
The 49ers, despite not having a secondary pass-catching threat at TE, finished first in overall expected points added with 0.41 EPA/play out of 22. Their EPA/pass was an astounding 1.01 and their EPA/rush was 0.09.
San Francisco has thrown just 34.8% of its 22 passes, so that could change this season.
Last season, all other TEs other than George Kittle only caught 4 passes on 5 targets for 44 yards. Of those, one catch for 20 yards came in the final game when Kittle did not play, meaning that all other TEs last year when Kittle was on the field had 3 catches for 24 yards.
Not only will the 49ers use the No. 22 more this year, but they should also expect to pass more out of these formations, as the versatility of Kittle, Thomas, fullback Kyle Jusic and running back Christian McCaffrey allow them to turn this run-heavy formation into an empty backfield with five wide receivers. They had success passing out of this formation last season with a second tight end who was powerless in the passing game. The addition of Thomas allows Shanahan to diversify his personnel group and make his play calls less predictable.
This will likely result in an increase in 12-man formations (1 RB, 2 TEs). Juszczyk’s versatility allows the 49ers to play a 21-man formation that looks like a 12-man formation because the fullback can essentially function as another TE. In a pure 12-man formation last season, which the 49ers played at the 8th-lowest rate in the NFL, San Francisco’s EPA/rush was negative. Perhaps that’s because the team was able to man up to stop the run knowing another TE wouldn’t be much of a threat, but there are a lot of factors that could lead to such poor production from one of the NFL’s best rushing attacks.
Shanahan’s offense has always been one step ahead of NFL trends and teams tend to move in the direction he does. Given what we know about defensive personnel changes, the 49ers’ success last year and what they’ve done this offseason, don’t be surprised to see San Francisco get ahead of the pendulum swinging back toward old-school smash-mouth football and become more size-oriented this season.
