New Delhi: The political situation in Punjab has intensified with multi-party infighting as the LS elections play a crucial role for individual leaders.
Punjab politics is more about projecting power within the state than at the national level. In terms of national politics, Punjab has only 13 representatives in the Lok Sabha. Still, when it comes to Lok Sabha elections, it gets interesting as all the parties have their core votes in it, be it Ahmed Aadmi Party (AAP), Indian National Congress, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Siromai Akali Dal (Badal), SAD (Amarinder) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). Still, votes shift often in state elections. When it comes to political surprises, Punjab always brings surprises and in 2014, AAP won its first Lok Sabha member from Punjab.
Previously, Punjab had only two centres of power – Prakash Singh Badal of SAD and Amarinder Singh of Indian National Congress – and the contest was always polarised. But the victory of AAP and SAD(A) in the by-elections in Sangrur, Punjab, and the departure of the SAD-BJP alliance, has created a multi-party contest in Punjab for the first time. There is no NDA or INDIA in Punjab, and each party is contesting separately. This has resulted in various well-heeled leaders vying for the centre of power in the state. That is why state assembly elections have become crucial for individuals and not for political parties.
For Bhagwant Mann’s AAP, this election is all about not letting the anti-incumbent vote slip through the cracks as the party had won a landslide victory in the state assembly elections by winning 92 seats. However, its defeat in the Sangrur by-elections and the victory of Simranjit Singh Mann came as a surprise to everyone. AAP relies heavily on free services such as free electricity in the state. However, the drug problem, which remains a major issue in the state, has now become smaller. AAP, which has been vocal about the drug problem in Punjab, has been silent on the issue since coming to power. According to a professor at Punjab University, if AAP performs well in this election, it will be a test for Bhagwant Mann and his government. Punjab is not a state where AAP can lose votes and this will ultimately favor the Congress.
For the great traditional party, the challenge in Punjab is not from the BJP but from the AAP, its partner in the Indian Union. The Congress lost to the AAP in the state assembly elections, but it cannot afford to lose this time, as that would mean a setback in the state ahead of the 2027 assembly elections.
The Indian National Congress has a strong presence with popular candidates such as Amrinder Singh Waring, Charanjit Singh Chani and Sukh Pal Kaira. Despite having strong candidates, the Indian National Congress is struggling to compete against its arch rival, the AAP, in the state.
The elections could be a win-win situation for the saffron party, the BJP, as it is expected to increase its vote share and surpass its old partner, the Akali Dal, in both seats and vote share. It has also brought in big-name politicians like Ravneet Bittu and Sunil Jakhar to focus on the Jat and Sikh communities, which are considered powerful castes. The BJP already has a strong Hindu face, which is set to play a pivotal role in the 2027 state assembly elections. According to local experts, the BJP is expected to surprise the state with its performance.
The Shiromani Akali Dal, once a powerful force in the state, may end up being the worst performer in the state. In 2019, the SAD had the second highest vote share but its share dropped in the state assembly elections, making it difficult for the old party to repeat its 2019 performance. This could be a turning point for the SAD(A) in the Lok Sabha, while it may emerge as a challenger to the SAD. The prospect of an independent Amritpal will also define the debate in Punjab politics.
Traditionally, the results of the Lok Sabha elections have been reflected in the Punjab Assembly elections. After the Indian National Congress came to power in the 2017 state assembly elections, the party won eight seats in the 2019 general elections. The AAP, which had four Lok Sabha members in the 2014 elections, became the main opposition party in the state assembly in 2017. Therefore, political analysts predict that whatever the outcome of the 2024 general elections, it will definitely be reflected in the state assembly elections scheduled for 2027.
