The Omaha Stakes: The ultimate political showdown in 2024 | Opinion

Fasten your seat belt: I’m about to tell you a chilling story about how one man’s vote could determine the outcome of the 2024 Presidential election.

The 2020 census results caused blue states to lose their electoral votes. So by 2020, a Democrat could win the presidency with more than the magic 270 electoral votes needed to win, combined with wins in Democratic-held states and the so-called “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. But after the census, wins in Democratic-held states and the “blue wall” are shaping up to be President Joe Biden’s only path to reelection, but with only 269 electoral votes to gain.

Where will that one vote come from? The only state that can carry Biden to victory is Nebraska. How can a solidly Republican state do that? Because Nebraska is one of two states in the country that select their electors through electoral college districts, the other being Maine. Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District is Democratic for Obama and Biden, and current polls are leaning toward Biden, though by a smaller margin than in 2020.

The danger is that Nebraska’s Republican governor has called a special session of the Nebraska Legislature and signaled that a top priority will be changing the state’s electoral vote selection process. A winner-take-all system based on statewide results would deprive Biden of the final electoral votes he needs to win the presidency. The Nebraska Legislature tried this earlier this year without success, but the stakes are now huge, given the perception that Biden, and any Democrat who replaces him if he leaves office, has only one path to 270 votes. So Nebraska Republicans are eager to change the rules.

Nebraska is also unique in that it has a unicameral state legislature. There is no House of Representatives like other states, only a state senate. Republicans need 33 votes to block a Democratic filibuster. Currently, it appears Republicans have 32 votes. Republican state senators, some of whom were once Democrats but switched parties, have resisted the change in the past, but will now face significant new pressure.

One of them is Nebraska Senator Mike McDonald, who is running for mayor of Omaha, the largest city in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. Biden isn’t winning the district handily — Omaha’s current mayor is a Republican, and so is the 2nd Congressional District representative. But Omaha residents clearly like the political influence the current electoral process gives them, and McDonald is caught in the middle.

The timing of any changes to the current system is another big variable. According to Nebraska law, changes to the current voting system cannot be implemented for 90 days, so any changes to the Electoral College would have to be signed into law by August 4 to apply to the November election. There is an exception to this, however, if a bill is passed with an emergency clause, in which case the 90-day rule does not apply. However, passing an emergency clause is subject to a filibuster, which also requires 33 Republican votes to pass.

The timing issue is further complicated by the fact that Maine has threatened to switch to winner-take-all if Nebraska takes this step, which would undermine Nebraska’s attempt, as Maine is a blue state with one Republican-leaning district. The caveat here is that Maine has until August 4 to act on its state law in order to hold its November election, making the timing very tight.

So if Nebraska wants to take steps to avoid a Maine backlash, it would have to adopt the changes after the Aug. 4 deadline, which would require the passage of additional emergency provisions.

But Republicans would likely need an emergency clause to win anyway. Former Democratic state senator Adam Morfeld runs two organizations that oppose the change in the Legislature, Civic Nebraska and Nebraska Votes. They have vowed to launch a petition drive to gather the 120,000 signatures needed to put the issue on a referendum if the bill passes the Legislature. A referendum would postpone the effective date of the change until after the 2024 election. Still, an emergency clause would overcome that tactic.

It is no exaggeration to say that a balanced district with one legislative district, one electoral vote, and one state senator’s vote represents America’s last hope of preserving democracy as we know it.

They desperately need funding to make their voters heard and convince McDonald or several moderate Republican senators with term limits to build a wall to stop Biden from passing emergency provisions that would block his reelection. The stakes in Omaha couldn’t be higher, and Morfeld and his organization’s efforts in this crucial political showdown are desperately needed.

Tom Rogers is chairman of Orbit Gaming and Entertainment, managing editor of Newsweek, founder of CNBC, a CNBC contributor, founder of MSNBC, former CEO of TiVo, a member of Keep Our Republic, and a member of the American Bar Association’s Democracy Task Force.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own.