The real power in Putin and Kim’s budding friendship is China

The 3am welcome hugs on the runway, the horse-mounted honour guard, giant portraits of Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin hung side-by-side in central Pyongyang – all of this was designed to unsettle the West.

Putin’s first visit to Pyongyang since 2000 was a chance for Russia and North Korea to show off their friendship – and they did, with Kim Jong Un declaring his “full support” for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Seoul, Tokyo, Washington and Brussels will take great risk in these words and the orchestrated meeting, but in reality, both leaders feel they need each other: Putin desperately needs ammunition to continue the war, and North Korea needs money.

But Pyongyang does not have this regional power, nor does it want to. Putin and Kim Jong Un have cultivated ties on China’s doorstep and would have been wary of provoking Beijing, a key source of trade and influence for both sanctions-hit regimes.

Putin boasts of his “strong friendship” with Kim Jong Un, but he must also know that it has its limits – and that limit is Chinese President Xi Jinping.

There are some signs that Xi is not a fan of the growing alliance between the two allies.

Beijing reportedly urged Putin not to visit Pyongyang shortly after his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in May, as Chinese officials did not want the trip to include any impressions of North Korea.

Xi is already under considerable pressure from the United States and Europe to cut back on aid to Moscow and halt sales of components that are fueling the war in Ukraine.

And he cannot ignore these warnings: Just as the world needs the Chinese market, Beijing needs foreign tourists and investment to counter sluggish growth and maintain its position as the world’s second-largest economy.

The country now offers visa-free travel to tourists from parts of Europe as well as Thailand and Australia, and its pandas are once again being deployed to zoos overseas.

Public perception matters to an ambitious Chinese leader who wants to assume a bigger international role and challenge the U.S. He certainly does not want to be an outcast or face new pressure from the West, while at the same time he is still managing relations with Moscow.

While Putin has not condemned the invasion of Ukraine, he has so far failed to provide Russia with significant military assistance and has been cautious in his response, in contrast to his flowery praise for Xi during their May meeting.

China has provided political protection to Kim’s efforts to build up his nuclear arsenal, including repeatedly blocking U.S.-led sanctions at the United Nations.

But Xi is no fan of the emboldened Kim Jong Un.

North Korea’s weapons tests have prompted Japan and South Korea to set aside bitter history and sign defense pacts with the United States, and rising tensions could see more U.S. warships appear in Pacific waters, raising concerns about Xi’s “East Asian NATO.”

Beijing’s disapproval could force Russia to reconsider further technology sales to North Korea, a possibility that is one of the biggest concerns for the United States.

NK News director Andrey Lankov is skeptical: “We don’t expect Russia to provide North Korea with significant amounts of military technology.”

He believes Russia “would not have much to gain from doing so and it could create problems in the future.”

North Korea’s artillery power would be an incentive for Putin’s war effort, but exchanging missile technology would not necessarily be a good deal.

And Putin may realize that it’s not worth angering China, which buys Russian oil and gas and remains a key ally in a world that has isolated him.

Pyongyang needs China more than ever. It is the only country Kim Jong Un visits. While a quarter to half of North Korea’s oil comes from Russia, at least 80 percent is traded with China. One analyst has described the Sino-North Korean relationship as a constantly burning oil lamp.

In short, no matter how much Putin and Kim try to appear allies, their relationship with China is far more important than what they share.

Despite professing to fight the “imperialist West,” this is a wartime partnership that may develop further, but for now appears to be little more than a transactional relationship, even if it is elevated to the level of an “alliance.”

The impressive Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement between the two countries, announced at a meeting between Putin and Kim Jong Un, is no guarantee that Pyongyang will be able to continue to supply ammunition.

Kim Jong Un needs supplies for himself because he must maintain his own front line: the demilitarized zone (DMZ) with South Korea.

Analysts also believe that Russia and North Korea use different operating systems, and that the North Korean one is of lower quality and outdated.

More importantly, Russia and North Korea have not prioritized their relationship for decades. When Putin was on friendly terms with the West, he twice imposed sanctions on North Korea and worked with the United States, China, South Korea and Japan to convince North Korea to abandon its nuclear program.

In 2019, Kim Jong Un met with Vladimir Putin just once during a flurry of diplomatic summits. The only time Kim flashed smiles, hugs and handshakes was for South Korean President Moon Jae-in. The two met three times.

He exchanged “love letters” with then-U.S. President Donald Trump before meeting him three times. The man he once called “an old man” had suddenly become “someone special.” He also held three summits with President Xi Jinping, the first international leader he ever met.

Putin is the new party member, after all, but while he’s not bringing the glamour, Kim is laying out the roses and red carpets in the streets.

In a column published in North Korea’s state-run newspaper, the Russian leader stressed their shared interest in “resolutely opposing” Western ambitions to “hinder the establishment of a multipolar world order based on justice and mutual respect.”

But it was missing the flattery for Xi, whom he described as “as close as brothers” and praised China’s slowing economy for “developing by leaps and bounds” – and said his family was learning Mandarin.

With China, both countries would be supplicants; without China, both countries and their governments would find themselves in a bind.

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