But the total nuclear arsenal is expected to remain far smaller than those held by the two largest nuclear powers: the United States has 5,044 warheads and Russia has 5,580, according to the report.
“China is building up its nuclear arsenal at a faster rate than any other country,” said Hans Kristensen, an associate senior fellow in CIP’s Weapons of Mass Destruction program, “but almost every nuclear-weapon state has plans or is making major efforts to build up its nuclear arsenal.”
As of January 2024, there are an estimated 12,121 nuclear warheads in the global nuclear arsenal, with Russia and the United States holding nearly 90% of all nuclear weapons. Of these, approximately 9,585 are in ready-to-use condition, and the rest are retired Cold War-era warheads that have not been fully dismantled.
02:01
North Korea’s Kim Jong Un leads country’s first ‘nuclear explosion’ mock drill
North Korea’s Kim Jong Un leads country’s first ‘nuclear explosion’ mock drill
Both countries’ nuclear weapons stockpiles remained relatively stable in 2023. Russia had 1,710 nuclear warheads deployed to its operational forces as of January 2024, up slightly from 1,674 the previous year, according to the report. However, the report said there was “no conclusive visual evidence” to support claims that nuclear weapons had been deployed in Belarus.
SIPRI said nuclear arms control and disarmament diplomacy “suffered another major setback in 2023” with Russia suspending the latest strategic nuclear arms control treaty with the United States, withdrawing its ratification of the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, and issuing nuclear threats in response to European and US support for Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the outbreak of war in Gaza has undermined efforts to bring Israel into Middle East nuclear talks and “apparently brought diplomatic efforts between Iran and the United States to an end.”
“As Cold War-era arsenals are gradually dismantled, the world’s total number of nuclear warheads continues to decline, but unfortunately the number of operational warheads continues to grow each year,” said Dan Smith, the institute’s director.
“This is a very worrying trend that is likely to continue and probably accelerate over the next few years.”
China is reportedly building around 350 new silos for its ground-based ballistic missiles.
If each of the new silos China is building is equipped with single-warhead missiles, the number of warheads that can be carried on an ICBM within the next decade will increase to around 650.
But the report said it was unclear what China plans to do with the silos, and that if they are used to store missiles with three independently targetable reentry vehicles that could strike multiple targets, the number of ICBM warheads could increase to more than 1,200.
A Pentagon report last year drew a similar conclusion about China’s nuclear arsenal, estimating that China has about 500 operational nuclear warheads and saying that could exceed 1,000 by 2030.
“[China’s] The expansion of ICBMs appears to be influenced by concerns that the United States has the capability to destroy a significant portion of its forces in a first strike. [and] “This is an effort to overcome the improving capabilities of the U.S. missile defense system to intercept intercontinental ballistic missiles,” Christensen said.
“[It is also] It is an attempt to strengthen its nuclear deterrent so that it can more freely conduct conventional strike operations without fear of U.S. intervention.”
China has not commented on its own nuclear arsenal, saying Washington’s estimates are being used as a “convenient pretext to expand its nuclear arsenal in pursuit of absolute strategic superiority.”
03:15
Mainland Chinese aircraft enter Taiwan’s air defense zone, Taiwan conducts nuclear emergency drill
Taiwan conducts nuclear emergency drill after mainland Chinese aircraft intrudes into Taiwan’s air defense zone
China has a “no first use policy of nuclear weapons” and possesses the minimum number of nuclear warheads necessary to meet its national security needs, Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said last week.
According to SIPRI, approximately 346 nuclear warheads are allocated to ground-launched ballistic missiles, accounting for up to 70% of China’s nuclear arsenal as of January 2024.
About 20 warheads are deployed with the Air Force and 72 are on China’s nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines.
The remaining 62 warheads are stored elsewhere and are used on missiles that are not yet in service.
Citing U.S. intelligence sources, Christensen said Beijing’s recent moves to store solid-fuel missiles in silos, conduct naval deterrent patrols and even potentially develop a warning launch capability suggest it “may be starting to pair a small number of nuclear warheads with launchers.”
Previously, China was thought to keep its nuclear warheads, missiles and launchers separate except in times of crisis.
01:27
Putin oversees nuclear strike drill by Russia’s Strategic Strike Forces
Putin oversees nuclear strike drill by Russia’s Strategic Strike Forces
“The Chinese navy has been conducting ‘near-continuous maritime deterrence patrols,’ which seems to suggest that the submarines at sea are equipped with nuclear-tipped missiles. Each submarine can carry up to 12 ballistic missiles, each estimated to be equipped with one nuclear warhead,” Christensen said.
“The missile brigades perform ‘combat readiness’ and ‘high alert’ missions, which include ‘keeping missile battalions in a position to launch quickly.’ We assume that this enhanced readiness is rotated within the ICBM force, with several battalions with six to 12 launchers on high alert at any given time.”
Christensen added that the deployment of warheads on the missiles could be motivated by “efforts to improve the military’s full operational capability,” including detailed procedures for “handling and protecting” nuclear warheads.
He said this has prompted the United States to consider expanding its nuclear presence in the Indo-Pacific region, adding: “An expansion of U.S. nuclear capabilities in the Indo-Pacific is clearly not in China’s interest, nor is an expansion of China’s nuclear capabilities in the interest of the United States or its allies in the region.”
But the report also said the reliability of China’s missiles has been “called into question” following reports of widespread corruption within the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Forces, which could undermine the modernization plans.
