The shift to the far right in the European Parliament elections | Commentary

The story so far:

aIn a marathon vote held in the 27 member states of the European Union (EU) from June 6 to 9, 51.1% of around 400 million European citizens voted, and the conservative center-right coalition led by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen managed to retain its position as the largest party in the European Parliament (EP). However, right-wing and far-right parties achieved their best performance in parliamentary history, while the liberals and the Greens suffered a humiliating blow. In response to the results, French President Emmanuel Macron called for early general elections in his country on June 30, which is seen as a political gamble to prevent the rise of the party of far-right firebrand Marine Le Pen, who is seeking the presidency in the 2027 elections.

Which countries have led the rise of the far-right?

While the far-right wave predicted by exit polls did not materialize, far-right parties made significant and historic gains in the key member states of France, Germany and Italy. In France, Le Pen’s nationalist, anti-immigration Rally National (RN) became the country’s largest party with 31.5% of the vote and 30 of France’s 81 seats in the French parliament, finishing in second place with more than double the votes of Macron’s centrist Renaissance party.

In Germany, the election results directly called into question the legitimacy of the ruling coalition, which still enjoys approval among only 30% of voters. But Chancellor Olaf Schulz, whose disapproval ratings reach 70%, ruled out early elections. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, tainted by a series of espionage and bribery scandals and facing nationwide protests, came in second with a record 16% of the vote, outnumbering Schulz’s Social Democrats (SPD). The SPD, which forms a governing coalition with the Greens and the Free Democrats, trailed the AfD in vote share. Former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its sister party, the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU), came in first with 30% of the vote.

In Italy, Prime Minister Georgia Meloni’s Italian Brotherhood party, which has neo-fascist roots, strengthened its grip, winning a quarter of the vote, while far-right parties also gained strength in Austria, Hungary and Spain.

Political parties from each country run for the 720-seat EU parliamentary elections every five years, but after the elections they join supranational political groups in the European Parliament. As of 9:00 p.m. on June 12, provisional results showed that center-right parties across Europe performed quite well, with the European People’s Party group, including the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), emerging as the first bloc with 189 seats. The Social Democrats (S&D), which includes Germany’s Social Democrats (SPD), barely managed to secure 135 seats, but the Regenerate Europe (RE) group led by President Macron’s Renaissance party saw its seats fall sharply from 102 in the previous election to 79. The Green Party, which promotes climate change measures, fell from 71 to 53 seats, moving from the fourth to the sixth-largest bloc. The far-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity Democracy (ID) groups, which include Meloni and Le Pen’s parties, each increased their combined seats in the lower house from 118 to 131. The rest of the far-right are in the Not Affiliated (NI) group, which includes the AfD (which was expelled from ID in May) with 15 seats and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz with 10 seats.

To what do we attribute the gains of the right?

In 2019, youth protests across Europe calling for climate action sparked a green wave in the European Parliament elections that shaped Brussels’ five-year plan, produced an ambitious “Green Deal,” and laid out a roadmap to the EU’s net-zero targets for 2040 and 2050. But that was before the COVID-19 pandemic, farmer protests across the continent, and Russia’s attack on Ukraine led to a spike in energy prices that plunged Europe into its worst cost-of-living crisis in years. Additionally, the steady rise of eurosceptic, populist, and anti-immigration parties across Europe, including several that deny climate change, also contributed to this year’s shift to the right.

For example, in Germany, which sends 96 seats to the European Parliament, a national survey showed a significant shift in voter priorities, with peace, social security and immigration taking the top spots and climate change dropping from first to fourth. The far-right AfD exploited voters’ fears about a surge in immigration numbers in 2023, as migrants and asylum seekers from war-ravaged Ukraine, Africa and West Asia are on Germany’s doorstep. While there have been anti-extremist protests against the AfD in West Germany, East Germany emerged as a natural base for the AfD, with many voters feeling left behind by the system after reunification in 1990. Another area where the AfD seemed to exploit voter discontent was clean energy legislation, where the ruling coalition would require homeowners to replace their fossil fuel boilers with expensive heat pumps in 2023, a move the AfD promised to block.

EU climate policy has become a new issue for some voters, with European farmers staging a record 4,000 protests so far this year. The EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which provides subsidies and protects farmers from foreign competition, has become a crucial voting issue for the large farm lobby. But agriculture’s emissions, which have not declined since 2005, account for 10% of the EU’s total emissions, and the agricultural sector is responsible for a quarter of global pesticide use. Agriculture accounts for just 1.3% of Europe’s GDP.

The protesting farmers are fighting back against Green Deal policies that call for the redesign of the EU’s greenhouse gas-intensive food system and setting aside land for biodiversity restoration – measures that right-wing parties like RN call “punitive ecology”.

Has the balance of power in the European Parliament changed?

In the outgoing parliament, von der Leyen’s European People’s Party, the Social Democrats, and Macron’s Euro Renewal Party (often referred to as the “grand coalition”) have formed and pushed through a government with a combined 417 seats, often with the support of the Greens. The European People’s Party and the Social Democrats will still retain most of the seats, but with the Social Democrats and the Greens weakening, the Commissioner may choose to work with the right-wing European Socialists and possibly even the European Socialists (ID) on issues such as immigration, climate restrictions, and defense.

However, the nationalist right-wing parties that gained power in this election have different positions on various issues and are unlikely to become a strong, collective, decisive force.

The immediate impact of the election result can be seen in the deals von der Leyen has made with the coalitions to be re-elected European Commission president in a secret ballot in July: she may be able to attract enough votes from the grand coalition, but historically there has also been a 10% defection, meaning she may be targeting the votes of right-wing lawmakers.

What impact will the results have on EU policy?

Political analysts do not expect any dramatic changes in EU policy any time soon, but the shift to the right over time that was already evident before the election remains a concern. Center-right parties in some member states have turned to incorporating right-wing policies into their own policies to counter the popularity of the far right. Von der Leyen has already indicated she is willing to work with Italy’s Meloni in the European Parliament.

The strengthened centre-right already aims to lift the EU ban on the sale of internal combustion engine vehicles in 2035, as reiterated by European People’s Party (EPP) leader Manfred Weber.

Earlier this year, the European Parliament also voted to review migration and asylum policy, which includes provisions on the controversial issue of rapid deportations and the relocation of asylum seekers. In fact, last year, the European Commission President, together with Meloni, signed an agreement with Tunisia to block asylum seekers at its borders in exchange for financial assistance.

The author is a former staff writer at The Hindu and is interested in geopolitics, global inequality and history.