The two immigration policies highlight the possibility that the problem will continue into 2024.

Welcome to the online edition From the Political Deskis an evening newsletter bringing you the latest coverage and analysis from the election campaign, the White House and Congress from the NBC News political team.

In today’s edition, Deputy Political Editor Adam Wollner reports that two immigration-related developments — One in Washington DC and one in Arizona — We highlight the importance of this issue ahead of the 2024 election. Plus, national political reporter Steve Kornacki analyzes how the shifting demographics of Donald Trump’s base could affect his Electoral College advantage.

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The two immigration policies highlight how this issue could have a major impact well into 2024.

Adam Wallner

The politically tricky battle over the U.S. southern border was thrust back into the spotlight on Tuesday, with Democrats in Washington aiming to turn the tide on an issue they’ve long been behind on and Republicans in key battleground states hoping to further exploit the situation.

President Joe Biden, who has faced harsh criticism over the influx of migrants at the border, has signed a long-awaited executive order to temporarily halt asylum applications if there is a surge in migrants crossing the border, NBC News’ Gabe Gutierrez and Monica Alba report. The suspension will take effect immediately, as the average daily number of migrants has already exceeded the 2,500 threshold.

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For Biden, the move marks a clear shift to the right on immigration, with restrictions reminiscent of those then-President Donald Trump tried to enact in 2018 but were blocked by the courts.

More than 2,000 miles to the west, Republican lawmakers in Arizona have taken steps this fall to put the border issue directly before voters in an effort to galvanize their base in a key battleground state.

The state’s narrowly Republican-controlled Legislature has passed a bill that would put immigration-related measures on the November ballot. According to NBC News reporter Alex Tabet, state and local law enforcement agencies do not have the power to detain and deport illegal immigrants, even though court rulings say that power resides with the federal government.

These two events underscore the importance of the issue to voters with just months to go until Election Day and the disadvantage Democrats are campaigning at.

In an April national poll conducted by NBC News, voters were asked what the most important issue facing the country was, and immigration and the border came in second (22%) to inflation and the cost of living (23%). Additionally, 20% felt so strongly about immigration that they would vote for or against a candidate based solely on immigration, second only to protecting democracy (28%).

Additionally, a staggering 69% of voters were dissatisfied with Biden’s handling of border security, the lowest figure of his presidency, and Biden narrowly trailed Trump in head-to-head polls.

Even against this backdrop, any move by Biden and the Arizona Republican to harden their stance on the issue still carries risks. The president received little praise from Republicans for his executive order, who called it “too little, too late,” and was panned by liberal Democrats.

And Arizona Democrats have likened the ballot measure to a heavy-handed 2010 state law that gave law enforcement more power to arrest individuals suspected of being in the country illegally, sparking a national uproar, and warned Republicans it could backfire.

Trump’s shifting base could weaken his Electoral College advantage

Steve Kornacki

In the last two elections, Trump had a clear lead in the Electoral College and the race for the 270 House seats was close, but both times he decisively lost the national popular vote.

If a similar split were to occur this November, the current polling figures, which are effectively tied, would mean Trump has a huge advantage over Biden, but a look inside the polls suggests his Electoral College advantage could be significantly reduced this time around, even as his popular vote standing improves.

This has to do with the changing demographics of Trump’s support: Polls have consistently shown that while his support among white voters has remained little changed since 2020, he has grown among non-white voters.

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The current polling numbers reflect an average calculated from a cross-tabulation of all major surveys conducted since April. Taken individually, they are small subsamples with large margins of error, so take them with a pinch of salt. But the consistency of similar results across multiple polls strongly suggests that real movement is underway.

The $64,000 question is whether this newfound support for Trump will show up on Election Day — and it’s fair to wonder whether it will — but if it does, it’s clear that it will be most noticeable in states with demographically diverse populations.

To see what this means for this election, let’s look back at the last election. In 2020, Biden won the national popular vote by a massive 7,060,401 votes over Trump, much of which came from huge victories in huge blue states. In California alone, where Biden won by 29 points, he won by 5,103,821 votes, and in New York, where he won by 23 points, he won by 1,993,597 votes. That means the total popular vote difference in just two states was 7,097,599 votes.

California and New York are not only Democratic strongholds, but also some of the most diverse states in the country — which means, if current polls are correct, they are states where Trump could significantly undercut Biden’s vote share.

Consider a recent poll from Siena College in New York. Biden leads Trump by just nine points, 47% to 38%, and most of that is from non-white voters. Trump received the support of just 6% of black New Yorkers, according to exit polls in 2020, but the Siena College poll put that figure at 18%. Similarly, his support among Latinos increased by nine points.

You can see how this plays out. It’s not that Biden is at risk of losing New York, but a narrowing of the margin of victory would have an impact on the popular vote. For example, let’s say Biden had won New York by just 12 points in 2020. That would have cost Biden nearly a million votes without losing a single electoral vote. A similar change in California, where half the electorate is non-white, would have narrowed Biden’s popular vote lead by several million more votes. A narrowing of the margins in other large, diverse, Democratic states, such as Illinois or New Jersey, would have narrowed the gap even further.

This could result in a close national popular vote this November, with a possible victory for Trump, which is exactly what current polls are showing.

But that doesn’t automatically mean a big improvement in his Electoral College standing. A big increase in non-white voters would certainly make Trump the favorite to win Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. Adding those to the states he won in 2020 would bring Trump’s electoral vote count to 268, just shy of the magic number. But from there he would need to win Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which have majorities of white voters and where Trump’s population growth would mean less.

All of this combined means that Trump may have very little of the Electoral College advantage he enjoyed the past two times.

That’s all from the Politics Desk. If you have any comments, please email us here. politicsnewsletters@nbcuni.com

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