President Biden’s declining support among black voters is raising alarm bells among Democrats and raising hopes among Republicans that Donald Trump can achieve historic gains among a key segment of the opposition base.
But a new exclusive USA Today/Suffolk University poll of Black voters in the key battleground states of Michigan and Pennsylvania reveals more complex trends within the demographic group that could have unexpected implications for the November election.
The survey, conducted June 9-13 among 500 black voters in each state by landline and cell phone, had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Here are seven takeaways.
Exclusive Survey:Black voters are less pleased with Biden, but dislike Trump more
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1. Yes, Biden has problems.
The president has lost significant support among Black voters who supported him in 2020.
Seventy-six percent of people in each state said they voted for Biden four years ago, and his support is now down 20 points in Pennsylvania (56%) and 22 points in Michigan (54%).
In 2020, exit polls showed Biden winning 92% of the black vote in each state, and his drop in support was even steeper.
The top reason volunteered by survey respondents was dissatisfaction with his job in the White House, followed by concerns about his age and mental health. In third place was concern about the war, including his support for Israel in the Gaza conflict.
Biden won Michigan 61% to 31% and Pennsylvania 59% to 33% — positive overall results, but glaringly low numbers for some voters who have overwhelmingly supported Biden’s party for decades.
By comparison, former President Barack Obama, the nation’s only black president, had approval ratings of 88% to 9% in Michigan and 84% to 11% in Pennsylvania.
2. But black voters are still not convinced by Trump.
Biden’s big loss resulted in a small gain for Trump.
The poll found that 15% of Black voters in Michigan supported the Republican front-runner, up from 9% who said they voted in 2020. And in Pennsylvania, 11% supported him, up from 8% in 2020.
Exit polls from the last election showed Trump winning 7% of the black vote in each state.
Of course, in a very close election, even small shifts in support can make a difference.
Trump outnumbered black men by more than two to one in Michigan, 22% to 9%, and in Pennsylvania, 16% to 6%.
Overall, Trump was viewed much more negatively than Biden. In Michigan, Trump’s unfavorable rating was more than three to one, 72% to 23%, and in Pennsylvania, Trump’s unfavorable rating was even higher, more than five to one, 79% to 15%.
3. Kamala Harris is less popular than Biden
Kamala Harris made history in 2020 when she became the first woman, Black person and Asian American elected vice president.
Despite her groundbreaking status, she is slightly less popular than Biden among black voters in those two states, but she also has slightly lower unfavorable ratings: 60% to 24% in Michigan and 55% to 30% in Pennsylvania.
If Biden did not enter the presidential race for some reason, Harris was favored as a possible nominee over several other prominent Democrats, including 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, California Governor Gavin Newsom and Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock.
Harris came in second in Pennsylvania and third in Michigan, where her home state’s governor, Gretchen Whitmer, was the runner-up.
Topping the list in both states is former First Lady Michelle Obama, who has made it clear she has no interest in running for office or returning to the White House.
4. For Trump, choosing a black person as his running mate could backfire.
A majority of black voters (55% to 59%) said they would be less likely to vote for Trump if he chose one of three black men frequently mentioned as potential running mates: former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott or Florida Rep. Byron Donald.
This negative reaction dwarfed the number of people who said they were more likely to support the Republican candidate because of these potential vice presidential candidates: 17% for Carson, 10% for Scott and 7% for Donald.
5. Is Trump a victim of fraud? Not really.
Trump has speculated that his legal troubles, including a 34-felony conviction in New York and three other criminal indictments, have boosted his support among black Americans who see him as another victim of an unfair justice system.
This argument bore no weight in the poll: black voters in Michigan opposed it by a 5-to-1 margin, or 79% to 15%, and in Pennsylvania by a 7-to-1 margin, or 84% to 12%, they opposed it.
Additionally, 55% of Michiganders and 64% of Pennsylvanians said they were personally upset by Trump’s comments.
Not everyone surveyed believes the criminal justice system is fair: More than 7 in 10 people in each state said it is unfair, and majorities said they personally know someone who has been wrongfully convicted.
6. Verdict: Send him to prison.
Nearly two-thirds of black voters in each state — 64% in Michigan and 65% in Pennsylvania — said Trump’s conviction in New York for falsifying business records in a hush-money fraud scheme made them less likely to vote for him.
In Michigan, 51% and in Pennsylvania, 61% said that if they were the judge in the case, they would impose the harshest penalty, prison time.
7. Third parties have new appeal for dissatisfied people.
In 2020, only 1% of people surveyed said they voted for a third-party candidate. Now, with Biden defections, that number has risen to 15% in Michigan and 16% in Pennsylvania.
In Michigan, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 8% of the vote and Cornell West received 6%. In Pennsylvania, West received 8% of the vote and Kennedy Jr. received 7%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein received 1% of the vote in each state.
A significant proportion of third-party supporters named other independents as their second choice. West supporters in both states, for example, were most likely to choose RFK Jr.
But the findings underscore Biden’s chances of winning over or regaining the support of black voters who have drifted to third parties: In both states, and among independents, supporters were more likely to choose Biden over Trump as a second choice.
For example, Kennedy supporters in Pennsylvania gave Biden a victory over Trump by 27% to 11%. In Michigan, the margin was 48% to 13%.
The question now is whether Biden can win them back.
