What will be the position of political parties ahead of the Haryana Assembly elections scheduled for later this year?
What could work for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and what are the drawbacks of this possible move?
In the latest episode of What this means We discuss these aspects of Haryana politics with political commentator Rohit Pathania in our podcast, which you can listen to on Spotify. Swarajya App.
Highlights from the discussion include:
What is being done for the Congress in Haryana?
If we look at the results of this Lok Sabha election, we can see that in addition to the Jat vote, we are also seeing a departure of the Dalit vote in Haryana, which is like a traditional vote mix that the Bharatiya Janata Party has always had, at least under the Bhupinder Singh Hooda government, and which seems to have made a comeback.
And there is certainly discontent with the BJP, so much so that Dalit votes, plus some of the votes from other communities (not large numbers, but enough to make a significant difference), helped ensure the Congress’s comeback in the Lok Sabha elections.
But how will this translate into the Vidhan Sabha elections? The competition is very tight but as of now it looks like the Indian National Congress will be the leading party.
BJP’s Strategy and Shortcomings
1. OBC Voting: The BJP is betting on the fact that Nayab Singh Saini is from one of the OBC (Other Backward Class) communities, which could perhaps be the deciding factor in helping the BJP secure a large enough margin and a sufficient number of seats, at least in the Lok Sabha.
But Nayab Singh Saini is still seen by many on the ground as a chief minister controlled by a distance, with the real control being in the hands of Manohar Lal Khattar, who is currently an MP and minister in the central government. This perception that Khattar has a presence in state politics in Haryana works against the BJP.
2. Focus on core voters: There are other communities that are considered strong constituencies for the BJP, for example the Punjabi Khatri community, which is currently considered very close to the BJP in elections, and also communities like the Brahmin community in Haryana, which has a strong presence in areas like Bhivani.
3. Jatt’s vote: A lot of this dates back to the protests that a significant number of Jats staged in 2016 to get reservation status. At that time, some BJP leaders, who were later expelled from the party, made some very harsh remarks against Jats. So, it is in some ways a thorn in the side of the BJP, an image that is not easily wiped away.
Secondly, the BJP has always struggled to find a leader who belongs to Haryana’s Jat community and has worked his way up – a down-to-earth activist and face.
The BJP has never been seen as a natural Jat ally, and its attempted socially acceptable alliance with the JJP in 2019 clearly did not work, instead ultimately creating a perception that the BJP was being targeted and marginalised.
However, the recent joining of Kiran Chaudhary and Shruti Chaudhary to the BJP may help Kiran become more well-known than expected, despite her recent electoral defeat. If so, the BJP will clearly be hoping to capture at least a portion of the Jat vote.
The BJP would like to have a woman, a Jat face, as its CM candidate for Haryana, not this time, but maybe five years from now, so maybe that is the long-term plan.
The impression of inaction has been created towards the government, especially over the past five years, making the BJP increasingly unpopular.
First, what the BJP can certainly claim is that it has run a clean government with minimal reports of corruption and has tried to address many problems, especially in urban areas.
For example, there is the urban Aadhaar-like system for real estate, which has certainly caused a lot of confusion, but many in government see it as a success story in terms of making it easier to register and transfer property.
The second point that the BJP can certainly highlight is the issue of law and order and the social structure in terms of gender ratio – these two points have improved a lot under the BJP government.
The third, of course, is the fact that we have a chief minister from a traditionally non-dominant community, and so the BJP may want or choose to emphasise this point on the ground as well.
Frankly, the BJP really needs to wake up. Election time is fast approaching. But the BJP is nowhere to be found on the ground, let alone talking about elections. So, they seem to be in a limbo that they cannot get out of. It is unclear how well the BJP will be able to counter the Congress’s claims on the ground on issues like Agniveru.
The BJP’s silence on almost everything is likely to come back to haunt it in the near future unless it goes all out to counter the rhetoric and social media strategy being deployed against it by the Opposition.
Will JJP once again be the kingmaker?
Given the current state of the Indian National Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the biggest liability is likely to be Abhay Chautala’s Janayak Janata Party (JJP).
It is still possible that the Indian National Congress will be the number one party, the Bharatiya Janata Party will be the number two, and the Janata Janata Party will somehow assume the position of kingmaker across the board, resulting in a split in the Congress.
The alliance between the Indian National Movement (INLD) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is almost identical to today’s alliance between the Shiromani Akali Party and the BSP in Punjab.
In reality, the INLD is essentially divided – Dushyant’s uncle and father were both in the INLD, and it barely held onto its seat in 2019 – and Dushyant was seen as the heir apparent to the whole mess.
But fundamentally there can be no reconciliation between the two parties, because in the end it comes down to who is the absolute leader within the party, and no one is willing to give up that position.
Given this, frankly, the INLD-BSP has no chance of winning. If the JJP had been one of the parties in the alliance, they might still have had a shot at being a kingmaker group. But at this point, I don’t see them having any chance of winning, except maybe spoiling a few seats for the Indian National Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party.
