Trump looms over Chinese smartphone players’ successful global push

BARCELONA — U.S. President Donald Trump’s continued clashes with China over tech and trade looms heavy over Chinese smartphone vendors who have grown globally in the past few years, creating uncertainty over whether some of these companies may be targeted by Washington, similarly to Huawei.

At the Mobile World Congress (MWC) in Barcelona, Chinese electronics players from Xiaomi to Honor and Oppo were out in force, showing off their latest devices. Xiaomi even had its latest electric vehicle — the SU7 Ultra – on show as it looked to create a buzz.

Xiaomi also launched a high-end smartphone while Honor announced a $10 billion investment in AI. Oppo touted its AI privacy features and other lesser-known players like Tecno, owned by Transsion, unveiled products like AI glasses.

Huawei was also in attendance, and showed off the Mate XT, a trifold smartphone which it has launched in international markets as it charts a very cautious comeback to the global sphere.

To some extent, Huawei serves as a cautionary tale to other Chinese players. The Shenzhen-headquartered firm was once the biggest smartphone vendor in the world until U.S. sanctions crushed its handset business.

Just as Huawei is looking to dip its toe into international smartphone sales again and other Chinese players are growing quickly, Trump is back in the White House, which is likely to overshadow these companies’ presence at MWC, according to Ben Wood, chief analyst at CCS Insight.

“I think also unfortunately for Huawei, just as they are starting to get back on their feet, the re-emergence of Trump and his overall strategy with regards to ‘America First’ and placing pressure on the Chinese, not only affects Huawei, but it affects all of the Chinese manufacturers that will be at MWC,” Wood told CNBC.

“I think it’s very much going to be the elephant in the room at MWC with regards to a huge amount of investment and lavish spending by the Chinese manufacturers, with the shadow of what’s going to happen in coming months hanging over them.”

Xiaomi, Oppo and Honor were not immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC.

Chinese players have been a feature of MWC for several years as they’ve expanded their footprint globally. Now eight of the top 10 smartphone players are headquartered in China, according to Canalys data. Xiaomi for example is the world’s third-largest.

Xiaomi has grown its presence in Europe while others, like Transsion, have focused on emerging markets. With that success also comes the potential for further scrutiny, Wood said.

“The danger for these manufacturers is if they put their head too far above the parapet, they’ll start to get scrutiny from the U.S. administration,” Wood said.

“So I think they have to tread a fine line in Barcelona and make sure that they don’t make too much noise because the last thing they want is to be the poster child for Chinese technology and become the latest focal point for Trump and his advisors.”

So far, Trump has focused on raising tariffs on Chinese imports. But there has been little action on the technology restriction front. Under the previous President Joe Biden, Washington brought in several rounds of restrictions that looked to cut off China’s access to advanced technology in areas such as semiconductors.

Other analysts agree there is a risk of increased scrutiny but point to a couple of key reasons why other Chinese manufacturers may not be restricted the way Huawei was.

Francisco Jeronimo, vice president for data and analytics at International Data Corporation (IDC), said that the Chinese brands are focusing their efforts on Europe rather than the U.S., which could help deflect scrutiny from Washington.

“They [Chinese players] definitely don’t have a chance selling in the U.S., but if they continue targeting Europe as they are, I don’t think that’s a risk and I don’t think it will come to a point where the U.S. administration will tell whatever countries in Europe they need to stop selling Xiaomi or Honor or any other brand,” Jeronimo told CNBC.

“I don’t think there’s a massive risk because at the end of the day as they are not targeting U.S. consumers.”

Another reason why the U.S. may not target Chinese firms as heavily as Huawei is because it could harm American tech firms, according to Neil Shah, partner at Counterpoint Research.

“It’s hard to say how much Trump will tighten the screws on Chinese players because they’re dependent on Google, Microsoft and Qualcomm,” Shah told CNBC.

Chinese players selling outside of China run Google’s Android operating system on their smartphones. Meanwhile, many of them rely on chips from U.S. firm Qualcomm. Many Chinese smartphone makers also sell laptops and tablets which may run Microsoft’s Windows operating system.

Restricting Chinese companies’ access to this technology could harm U.S. firms, Shah argues.

“Qualcomm will lose out, Microsoft will lose out and eventually Google will lose out as well,” Shah said.