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Christophe Barrault bases his predictions on a variety of indicators including betting odds, poll analysis, and financial market signals.
President Trump has all but erased the Democratic Party’s long-standing advantage among Hispanic men ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election in which he will face Harris. (Getty Images)
The “world’s most accurate economist” predicted that former US President Donald Trump would win on election day and that the Republican Party would return to power with a landslide victory.
Christophe Barrault, who has been named the best economic forecaster of the U.S. economy by Bloomberg every year since 2012, said U.S. economic growth will accelerate after the election.
“Looking at a variety of indicators, including betting markets, public opinion polls, election modeller projections, and financial markets, the most likely outcome at this point is a Trump victory and a landslide Republican victory,” said Barrow, chief economist and strategist at Market Securities. ” he said. Monaco said in an X post.
Trump vs Kamala
Barrow warned that if Vice President Kamala Harris is elected with a divided Congress, markets are already pricing in a Republican victory and could push yields lower. That will be fixed, he was quoted as saying fox news.
The move comes as the Democratic Party’s long-held advantage among Hispanic men has all but disappeared ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election in which Trump will face Democrat Kamala Harris. It was analyzed that there is. Reuters/Ipsos poll.
An analysis of more than 15,000 responses to Reuters found that among Hispanic men, Mr. Trump currently trails Vice President Harris by just 2 percentage points (44% to 46%) in 2020. compared to a 19-point lead over Democrat Joe Biden in the same period / Ipsos poll conducted in the month ending October 21, 2020, and during the same period.
Trump’s gains have been offset by increased support for Harris among white women, with Harris having a 12-point lead over Biden at the end of 2020, but now with a 12-point lead over Biden. 46% vs. 43%, a decrease of 3 points. The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted Oct. 16-21, shows the two candidates in an unusually close race, with Harris gaining just 46% to 43%.
long-standing edge
The change is part of a larger shift in the coalition that each candidate expects to win, with Mr. Trump increasing his lead among Hispanic and black voters, especially men, while Ms. Harris has lost ground. By consolidating it, they broke the Republican Party’s long-standing advantage with white voters. With women.
Trump has the support of 37% of registered Hispanic voters, up from 30% at the same time in 2020, according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll analysis. Harris got 51%, compared to 54% for Biden four years ago. Numbers are subject to sampling error, with a precision level of 2 to 6 percentage points.
According to a 2020 exit poll analysis by Pew Research Center, Mr. Trump won 38% of the Hispanic vote in 2020, 21 points less than Mr. Biden, but he was the first Republican candidate to receive 38% of the Hispanic vote in 2004. This was the highest percentage of votes since President W. Bush won 44%. Historical figures compiled by the American Enterprise Institute.
(With input from agency)
- Location:
Washington DC, United States (USA)
