Turn right: About the European Parliament elections

Before the results of the European elections were counted, the first shock came when French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the French National Assembly. This resulted in a shocking defeat for Macron’s Renaissance party in the European Parliament to the far-right National Rally party, and he took the risky gamble of calling for fresh elections to be held on June 30 and July 7. Macron wants the French people to give his party a majority in Parliament, which could lead to another defeat and a blow to his own presidency, which currently runs until 2027. Although the final tally (still provisional and still being counted in many of the EU27 countries) is expected to give a coalition of centrist parties a majority in the 720 seats of the European Parliament, the result has given a boost to far-right and ultra-nationalist parties in Germany, France and Austria, shocked the governing parties and confirmed the support of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy party. In addition, the Green Party has also suffered a blow. Speaking at the launch of the election campaign for the European People’s Party, the largest party in the European Parliament, von der Leyen warned that “European values” were at risk in the elections. “A peaceful and united Europe is threatened more than ever before by populists, nationalists and demagogues, whether from the far right or the far left,” she said, pointing to threats from within Europe and Russia’s war in Ukraine.

For the world, the European vote may not change much in terms of policy direction. Still, it is important for the Indian government to watch more closely. Concerns over migration are widespread and the government needs to negotiate better terms for mobility agreements to control illegal migration leaving India as well as to facilitate employment for Indian experts and workers. The EU is India’s third-largest trading partner and a turn to protectionism in Europe now could derail negotiations on a delicate India-EU bilateral trade and investment agreement. While divisions within the European Parliament over conflicts including Ukraine and Israel will not directly impact the Indian government, larger trends of division and disunity within the EU will have implications for the international order. An EU-India summit is scheduled for early 2025 and India will seek closer engagement on all these issues. Closer to home, Prime Minister Narendra Modi leaves for Puglia, Italy on Thursday for the G7 outreach, where he will meet European prime ministers and EU leaders to assess not only the European Parliament elections but also the Indian elections, which have delivered unexpected results.