Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Chinese counterpart Dong Jun each spoke at the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual international security forum in Singapore that’s one of the few times the two rival military leaders can socialize over panels, dinners and cocktail hours at luxury hotels. Austin and Dong also met on the sidelines of the summit on Friday, their first face-to-face meeting in two years.
The arguments at the weekend debate, many of which referenced recent events including major military exercises carried out by China around Taiwan less than two weeks ago, underscored the impression of increasingly escalating tensions in the region.
The dialogue also allowed the two countries to make their case before an international audience that included defense officials from neighboring countries South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines and Cambodia — nations that are targets of U.S. and Chinese influence operations and often uncomfortable bystanders in the global strategic power struggle.
At a meeting that revolved almost entirely around U.S.-China relations, Austin and Dong called for respect for shared values and international law, without naming either country.
In his speech at the conference on Saturday, Austin highlighted America’s extensive and growing network of security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region, which observers said was a clear warning to Beijing that further Chinese military aggression in the region could prompt a U.S. response.
“We are working with our allies and partners like never before,” Austin said, noting that the U.S. recently “secured a series of historic agreements with allies and partners to transform our force posture across the Indo-Pacific.”
He said the U.S., Japanese and South Korean militaries are training together in an “unprecedented” way. The U.S. and the Philippines, along with Australia and France, recently completed Balikatan, the largest annual joint naval exercise. The U.S. is also building new levels of defense cooperation with Australia, Japan, South Korea, Papua New Guinea and the Philippines.
And this is “just a starting point,” Austin added, as “U.S. force posture in the Indo-Pacific is on the brink of even greater change.”
Dong’s comments on Sunday largely mirrored Austin’s rhetoric, but reversed claims of respect for the international order and illegal aggression, blaming Washington and its allies and partners. Dong said it was China that was committed to peace and had exercised great “restraint” in the Asia-Pacific region, and implicated the United States (without naming it) as a malevolent outsider seeking to influence affairs in a region where it is not a part.
Dong said China also has extensive strategic partnerships around the world and is able and willing to arm and train other countries in the region. “China has a well-established military education system and is ready to provide further assistance to other countries in training their personnel and provide courses tailored to different needs,” he said.
In remarks that aligned with Beijing’s usual talking points, Dong described China’s desire to live in a “multipolar world” rather than one dominated by the United States, and appealed to the “unique Asian wisdom” of regional countries and their shared experience of “imperialist” attacks by outside powers.
He said China’s disputes with Taiwan and the South China Sea were regional issues best resolved among regional countries and should not be resolved by outsiders, again without mentioning the United States.
“Those who try to separate Taiwan from China will end up destroying themselves,” Tung warned.
A subtle regional shift – towards China
Growing frustration among many of China’s neighbors over China’s maritime assertiveness, as well as criminal and cyber threats from Chinese state-run enterprises, was also on full display over the weekend, as scholars and representatives from other Asian countries that have forged closer ties with the U.S. in recent months dissected Dong’s claims and accused China of bad faith.
In his opening address on Friday night, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. cited “illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive actions” in waters claimed by the Philippines that threaten regional security in what many interpreted as a warning to China. This was likely a reference to escalating attacks by the Chinese coast guard and maritime militia, which have routinely blocked Philippine ships from sailing near the disputed islands in recent months.
Marcos’ comments mark a sharp about-face by the Philippine government over the past two years as it moves closer to align with the United States and move away from the previous administration’s more subservient stance toward China. He said any “deliberate” act that results in the death of Filipinos during a standoff with China would be considered an “act of war” and trigger a U.S. military response under the mutual defense treaty between the two countries.
Others disagreed.
During a question-and-answer session after Dong’s speech on Sunday, Jeong Min Lee, an expert on Korea and Northeast Asia security at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, sharply rebutted the minister, pointing out the contradictions between the peace and cooperation he advocated on the podium and China’s state-sponsored cyber attacks on its neighbors, its support for the North Korean dictatorship, and the Chinese coast guard’s aggressive actions in disputed waters.
“How can we trust you when your work and actions are the complete opposite?” Chung asked, drawing applause from the multinational audience.
Meanwhile, when Senior Colonel Cao Yan, a Chinese military official and scholar at the China Institute of Warfare, suggested Saturday that NATO’s expansion into Europe “led to the Ukraine crisis,” Austin drew applause when he said he “respectfully” disagreed with the assertion.
“It was striking that there was spontaneous and widespread applause,” said Sen. Chris Coons (D-Delaware), who attended the meeting after meeting with officials from Taiwan and the Philippines. The idea that the U.S. and NATO provoked the Ukraine war “is a common story in the Global South,” he said.
Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), a member of the Singapore Senate delegation, told reporters that the United States has been able to expand its strategic alliances in the Indo-Pacific region “in large part because of Chinese aggression.”
For smaller Southeast Asian countries, China is an inescapable “geopolitical fact,” Bilahari Kausikan, a former special envoy for Singapore’s foreign ministry, said in an interview. But there is also a growing, implicit recognition that the United States is also “an indispensable part of the security balance,” he said. “This is a failure of Chinese policy, not a success of U.S. policy.”
While some Asian officials have accepted that public opposition to China is stronger than usual, many have been careful not to go too far in their criticism.
Wang Dong, a Peking University scholar and member of the Chinese delegation to Singapore, said no other country had spoken out as strongly as Marcos. “The lack of public support for his position speaks volumes about what other countries in the region consider to be a realistic approach.”
Indonesian scholar Dewi Fortuna Anwar expressed concern during a Q&A session that the twists and turns in U.S.-China relations could leave the rest of the region “trampled under the carpet.” Singapore’s Defense Minister Ng Eng Hen also stressed that the region “can take comfort” in Washington and Beijing’s stated aversion to conflict, but added that “most people here would agree that the United States and China are the main factors in determining the fate of Asia this decade and beyond.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who arrived late to Sunday’s meeting, also treaded carefully with China, criticizing China’s alleged arms support to Russia while calling for Beijing to participate in a planned Ukrainian peace summit in Switzerland.
“We need the support of Asian countries,” Zelensky said at a news conference. “We respect each voice, each territory. … We want Asia to know what is happening in Ukraine.”
