Two armed members of Iran’s police special forces stand behind a country flag placed on an armored military vehicle during a pro-Government rally in downtown Tehran, Iran, on January 12, 2026.
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The U.S. Virtual Embassy in Iran issued a security alert early Friday urging American citizens to “leave Iran now” and prepare departure plans that don’t rely on U.S. government assistance.
The notice comes ahead of U.S. and Iran’s scheduled talks in Oman on Friday, with little indication that the two sides have found common ground over the agenda of the meeting.
U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, U.S. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, were due to take part in the meeting with a team led by Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, according to American and Iranian officials.
The talks on Friday would be the first official meeting between Tehran and Washington since tensions flared in June last year, when a 12-day war with Israel led to U.S. airstrikes that severely damaged Iran’s three main nuclear facilities.
Differences over the scope and venue for the talks have cast doubts on whether they will yield results, keeping open the risk of a U.S. military action.
The U.S. government has reportedly demanded Iran to discard its stockpile of enriched uranium, put limits on Tehran’s ballistic missile program and stop arming and funding militant groups in the Middle East. Trump has threatened military strikes against Tehran if it fails to agree to U.S. demands.
Iran has pushed back, saying U.S. demands are an unacceptable infringement on its sovereignty and has threatened to respond forcefully to any attacks by striking U.S. military targets in the region and Israel.
Little hope?
The diplomatic moves come against the backdrop of heightened tensions in the Middle East with the U.S. building up forces in the Gulf in recent weeks. Trump has sent what he called a “massive armada,” led by aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln to the Middle East in the lead up to the talks.
The odds for a deal or de-escalation from the talks are low, as the core demands of both sides remain “far apart and there is zero trust,” said Bob McNally, president at Rapidan Energy Group.
McNally projected a 75% probability that the U.S. and Iran will engage in military hostilities in the coming days, or weeks. Possible scenarios include a Venezuela-style blockade, selective or limited strikes and large-scale military conflict, he said.
The talks were originally slated to take place in Istanbul, given Turkey’s leading role as a mediator, with foreign ministers from regional Arab countries, including Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, invited to participate.
But on Tuesday, Tehran requested a last-minute change of venue and format, asking the meeting to be held in Oman and to limit attendees to Iranian and American representatives.
As Trump has put U.S. credibility on the line, if Iran refuses to make large concessions, the U.S, president will likely feel compelled to act, McNally said. On the other hand, if the U.S. stands down from attacks, Israel could launch strikes against Iranian missile, nuclear and regime leadership targets.
Tensions flared up earlier this year after a nationwide protest broke out in Iran. Tehran clamped down on protests, killing at least 6,883 people as of Wednesday, according to Human Rights Activists News Agency, a Washington-based group focused on Iran.
Trump had previously threatened to intervene in support of protestors in the country, but ultimately backed out of taking military action.
— CNBC’s Asriel Chua contributed to the report.
