- The UAE is strengthening ties with the Chinese Air Force.
- It is possible that the plan is to increase pressure on the purchase of the US-made F-35 stealth fighter jet.
- Experts say the UAE is pursuing a “strategy of balance” between the United States and China.
The United Arab Emirates is expanding its air force ties with China in what appears to be a plan to brighten the bleak prospects of acquiring F-35 Lightning II stealth jets from the United States. However, this developing cooperation is unlikely to result in Abu Dhabi ordering replacement fifth-generation fighters from Beijing.
Major General Saleh Mohammed bin Mejlen Al Ameri, UAE Joint Operations Commander, said: met On April 23, he met with the commander of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force to promote closer cooperation between the air forces.
The talks reportedly took place as prospects for the UAE’s F-35 acquisition “may be fading.” one analysis.another even number guessed Abu Dhabi may eventually seek China’s best stealth fighter, the fifth-generation J-20 Mighty Dragon.
In January 2021, the United States approved a $19 billion deal to sell 50 F-35s and 18 MQ-4B drones to the UAE. But the deal has not materialized amid growing Washington concerns and Beijing’s suspicions about China’s central role in the emirate’s 5G infrastructure. A military base is being built there. Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi has grown frustrated with US preconditions regarding the scope of technological cooperation with China.
UAE orders 80 aircraft Dassault Rafales It also purchased 12 L-15 trainer aircraft from Beijing and participated in joint air force exercises in China. first time Such moves did little to soothe feelings in Washington. Concerns On expanding defense ties between China and its Arab Gulf allies.
Nevertheless, Abu Dhabi’s new ties do not imply that the country will replace Western military equipment with Chinese alternatives.
“The key factor to consider here is that, unlike U.S. policymakers, the UAE does not view arms purchases from China as a zero-sum transaction,” said Chatham House Associate Fellow and Emirates Airlines said Ahmed Abdo, head of the China Research Unit. Policy Center told Business Insider. “Abu Dhabi’s first choice would be to obtain the sale of the F-35 over its Chinese counterpart.”
Abdou said approaching China to discuss procurement of advanced weapons would be a challenge to Abu Dhabi, which the UAE considers “important” based on “national security considerations and high instability in the region.” He pointed to the US’ reluctance to offer an alternative.
Furthermore, Abu Dhabi hopes that the “balancing strategy” between the US and China will work.
Sebastien Roblin, a widely published military aviation journalist, also sees Abu Dhabi’s balancing act as working.
“The nature of relations between Gulf states and the United States is such that they may cultivate secondary relations with China and Russia, as they may flirt with third parties to garner jealousy from their partners. , to put more pressure on the US to sell,” Roblin told BI.
Both analysts believe that the L-15 acquisition and joint exercises are of little importance.
“I see the bilateral relationship between the air forces as still very superficial and symbolic,” Abdou said. “Building strategic depth in a military partnership takes time, and I don’t see this relationship developing into something like the UAE Air Force has with France or even Russia anytime soon.”
Roblin said the L-15 is a “fine advanced trainer aircraft that sells at a bargain price,” but that it is in line with the F-16 and Rafale jets that Emirati fighter pilots will eventually be able to fly. He pointed out that the benefits of a “common system” were lacking. Furthermore, the Emirati Air Force’s fighter fleet is already large for such a small country, and the L-15 is unlikely to play a combat role.
“This sale therefore serves as a warning signal to the United States that the UAE may take its funds elsewhere, as is the case with regular exercises,” Roblin said. “Of course, if we get too cozy with China, there is a risk that it could backfire and convince the US government that our more advanced equipment, like the F-35, cannot be trusted.”
Abdou believes it is “difficult to predict” whether the UAE will eventually acquire fifth-generation Chinese aircraft.
“The main factor at play here is the US vision for military relations with the UAE,” Abdou said. “In other words, at a time when there are widespread discussions about a U.S.-Saudi defense agreement that could be signed soon, the UAE would also be interested in a similar deal. Do you think signing this agreement is strategically necessary to curb Abu Dhabi’s increased military cooperation with China?
Roblin also believes the “highly touted” Saudi defense deal could be crucial. If the deal goes through and leads to Saudi Arabia’s sale of the F-35s, the UAE would also eventually get a fifth-generation US aircraft, provided it “locks out certain interactions” with China, such as Chinese radar. It has the potential to “show potential.” and an aircraft that could expose the F-35’s stealth capabilities.
There is also the salient fact that China does not export stealth fighters and the Chinese government is unlikely to offer the J-20 for export. It is likely to sell the FC-31, an export version of the lightweight J-35 that Pakistan is reportedly interested in acquiring, but it has not yet entered service.
“The UAE also had an interest in Russia’s Su-75 “export stealth fighter” to be launched by 2022, but the risk of Western sanctions and Russia’s mass production issues related to the Ukraine war made it unattractive. That doesn’t seem to be the case,” Roblin said. .
He suggested that South Korea’s KF-21 and Turkey’s TF Khan fighter jet projects could offer the UAE “less geopolitically problematic options.”Emirates has already reportedly interested Regarding investment in KF-21.
The UAE also probably has no interest in procuring advanced Chinese-made fourth-generation fighter jets, especially considering the huge Rafale order it just signed.
Roblin also said why would the UAE buy jets like the J-10 and J-16 from China when it already has access to comparable or better jets from the West like the F-15EX, F-16V and, of course, the Rafale. questioned.
“Introducing such Chinese aircraft, which rely on a variety of weapons and communications ecosystems, would make no sense logistically unless there was a broader project to retrofit the Chinese fleet,” Robin said. .
“But I doubt whether the UAE will go all-out in that direction.”
