Britain is slated to hold a crucial general election on Thursday (July 4th), a campaign marked by political scandals and gaffes ever since Chancellor Rishi Sunak suddenly called a surprise snap election outside No. 10 Downing Street on a rainy day in late May.
Experts and polling data suggest the election could be a landmark one, with Labour set to topple the Conservatives after 14 years in power, while the right-wing populist Reform UK has emerged as the opposition’s leading contender.
This election will be a key event in the country’s political landscape and will have a major impact on its future direction. It all comes down to the vote, but before that happens, here’s what you need to know about Election Day.
Timing, constituencies and voting process
The 2024 UK general election will take place on Thursday 4 July, with polling stations open from 7am (6am GMT) to 10pm PDT (9pm GMT). Registered voters in 650 constituencies will vote to elect their Members of Parliament (MPs) using the First Parties to Parliament system (FPTP).
In a single-member constituency system, the candidate who receives the most votes in each constituency becomes a member of parliament, regardless of whether he or she receives 50% of the vote. This differs from the proportional representation (PR) system used in many other European countries, which allocates seats to parties based on the percentage of the vote they receive.
Once polls close, the votes will be counted and the results are expected to be announced in the early hours of July 5. If a single party wins a majority of the 650 seats, its leader will become the new prime minister. If no party wins a majority, a hung parliament may be declared and the largest party may try to form a coalition government.
The two main candidates for prime minister are The Conservative Party and Keir Starmer Current Labour polls suggest the party will win a comfortable majority, but the final outcome may be different.
Why did Rishi Sunak call an election on the 4th of July?
Britain’s current Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, has announced that a general election will be held on July 4, 2024, even though the next general election is not needed until December 2024. Sunak’s decision remains a mystery to those outside his closest aides, and the decision has left political analysts perplexed.
FILE – British Chancellor Rishi Sunak speaks to media during heavy rain outside 10 Downing Street in London, Wednesday, May 22, 2024, as he announces that a general election will be held on July 4. (AP Photo/Khin Chun, File)
Here are some key points about the Prime Minister: Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s surprise decision to call a general election -:
1. Take advantage of the economic upside: Sunak’s bet is to use recent positive economic trends — falling inflation and a return to growth — to maximise the Conservatives’ chances of an election victory, despite fears that tougher economic times lie ahead.
2. Avoid further challenges: Calling an early election was seen as the “best option” to avoid further bad news that could damage the Conservatives’ chances of victory, such as more people facing higher mortgage payments or the continuing migration crisis.
3. The threat from Nigel Farage’s Reform Party: Calling early elections is also seen as a way to curb the influence of Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform Party, which has siphoned votes from the Conservative Party.
4. Intra-party dynamics: The call for an early general election was an attempt to halt internal fighting within the Conservative Party and stem the trend of Conservative MPs leaving the party.
5. Mr Sunak’s personal interests: The election is also of personal importance to Sunak, and a poor performance could lead to calls for him to be removed from his position as leader.
Major parties, candidates and issues
The main parties standing in the election are the Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Scottish National Party (SNP), Plaid Cymru, the Green Party and Reform UK. The Conservatives have been in power since 2010 and will have been in power for 14 years by the time of the election.
UK Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer speaks during a visit to the Caledonian Gladiators Stadium in East Kilbride, Scotland, during the general election campaign, Wednesday, July 3, 2024. (Andrew Milligan/PA via The Associated Press)
Leading candidates include Rishi Sunak (Conservative), Keir Starmer (Labour), Ed Davey (Liberal Democrats), Nicola Sturgeon (Scottish National Party) and Adam Price (Plaid Cymru) – this election will be a key test for these leaders and their parties.
The election comes amid significant economic and social challenges. Key issues include the rising cost of living, inadequacies in public services such as the NHS, rising immigration and a housing shortage. The cost of living crisis caused by high inflation and slowing economic growth has left many Britons feeling financially disadvantaged.
The NHS is plagued by long waiting lists and staff shortages, highlighting wider concerns about the efficiency of public services. Immigration remains a contentious issue, with debate ongoing about control and its impact on services and social cohesion. Rising house prices and rents have made affordability a key concern, particularly for younger voters. The winner will face the difficult task of battling inflation, reducing the budget deficit and improving public services.
Furthermore, this will be the first general election since Brexit in 2020 and the first under the Dissolution and Convocation of Parliament Act 2022, which introduces new rules for calling elections.
Why are the Conservatives doing so poorly in the polls?
The UK Conservative Party faces significant electoral challenges ahead of the general election on July 4th. Several factors have contributed to the Conservative Party’s poor performance in the opinion polls. The “Partygate” scandal, in which government officials were found to have violated lockdown regulations, severely damaged public trust in the Conservative government. Furthermore, the destructive economic policies of Liz Truss’s short-lived government in 2022 further eroded confidence in the party’s capabilities.
After 14 years in power, many voters are calling for a change of government. Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is seen as a more stable alternative. Opinion polls have consistently shown Labour to hold a large lead over the Conservatives, often by more than 20 points. The Conservatives have also been plagued by candidate scandals, with the UK Gambling Commission investigating party officials for alleged gambling activities related to election day. As a result, two candidates, Craig Williams and Laura Sanders, have been removed from the party’s shortlist.
Despite some positive economic indicators, such as falling inflation and unemployment, the Conservative Party has failed to deliver on key promises, particularly in areas such as the NHS and immigration control. This lack of progress has increased public dissatisfaction with the party. The 2024 general election will be the first to be held under the new electoral boundaries, which could be even worse for the Conservatives.
The Labour Party also faces challenges such as Starmer’s declining approval ratings and the party’s shift to the centre, but voters appear to be keen to see change after more than 10 years of Conservative rule.
Polls and forecasts
According to the latest opinion polls, the Labour Party is the favourite to win a majority in the UK general election in 2024. The Conservative Party is facing a very tough mathematical reality as it is facing its lowest polling numbers ever and its supporters are concentrated in the very constituencies it is trying to defend. Moreover, the rise of Reform UK will make it even harder for the Conservatives in these areas.
Reform UK Party leader Nigel Farage speaks to media during a visit to a boxing gym in Clacton-on-Sea, England, Wednesday, July 3, 2024. (AP Photo/Vadim Gilda)
Voter interest in this election appears to be less than in 2019, and there is some disillusionment with the two major parties, Labour and the Conservatives. Tonge, the politics professor, predicts a “landslide victory for Labour,” and turnout may be slightly lower than in the last election.
Tonge suggests that based on current projections, it would be a good result for the Conservatives to win more than 100 seats, a significant drop from the 365 they won in 2019. Such an outcome would trigger “an ideological and political debate that will shake the heart and soul of the British political right”, forcing the Conservatives to choose between going the “Farage route” of tougher policies on immigration and tax cuts, or trying to reinvent themselves as a centre-right party with no ties to Reform UK.
