UK general election: Cost of living may trump pride of Rishi Sunak among British Indian voters

Britain’s historic general election on Thursday will be Rishi Sunak’s first real test at the ballot box, with pride as Britain’s first Indian-origin prime minister likely to be trumped by a cost-of-living crisis and fatigue after 14 years of Conservative-led government.

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The outcome will only be clear once the polls close, but the last major poll, conducted by YouGov for The Times on the eve of the election, suggested the opposition Labour Party could win what is known as a “supermajority”, meaning a parliamentary majority of 212 seats, its highest in decades.

But whatever the ultimate outcome, this pattern reflects the political turmoil that ultimately led Mr Sunak to No. 10 Downing Street, rather than a vote against his own leadership.

“For British Indian voters in particular, I think this election is like any other voter – they have the opportunity to choose whether to keep the government in power or remove it. After 14 years of Conservative government, there is a growing desire for change rather than retention,” said Sunder Katwala, director of the think tank British Future.

“There will be regret and disappointment that things haven’t worked out, something Rishi Sunak was very proud of, but people won’t base their vote on that. That’s why I believe Indian-British voters, while they recognise Sunak’s historic achievement of becoming the first Indian-British Prime Minister, are more likely to vote for change than to keep him in office,” he said.

Against this backdrop, the issues affecting Indian voters in the UK will reflect wider concerns such as the cost of living crisis, NHS waiting lists and a crackdown on illegal immigration.

Sunak has delivered on a pledge to bring down soaring inflation he inherited in the aftermath of the turbulent terms of his predecessors Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, but it may not be enough to win the vote.

“I don’t know why he doesn’t say to every Conservative in government, ‘I told you so’… Inflation has fallen from a high of 11% to 2% and the country’s underlying economic outlook has improved since Mr Sunak took office in October 2022.”

“But the problem we have is that people have long-held memories of a time when they forgot what it meant to be a Conservative member,” Andrew Boff, Conservative leader of the London Assembly, said at an election debate hosted by Eastern Eye earlier this week.

“Rishi Sunak was refreshing in some ways because he’s obviously a very intelligent, decent guy trying to do his best… [but] “Not much has changed since I became prime minister,” Sir Richard Newby, the Liberal Democrat leader in the House of Lords, said during the event.

For Anneliese Dodds, Labour’s chairwoman and shadow minister for women and equalities, Mr Sunak’s term in office marked “great continuity” with his embattled predecessors.

But if the results show a decisive shift towards Labour among British Indian voters, it will be seen as a vote for change, rather than a decisive vote in favour of party leader Keir Starmer, who is simply seen as a “selectable alternative”, according to polling analysts.

Once the final results are known on Friday, talk will immediately turn to the political future of Mr Sunak, 44.

The Conservative leader’s immediate resignation would only be expected if the party’s performance actually approaches the dismal levels predicted by some opinion polls.