British Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt is fighting for his political life in Godalming, a wealthy town in southeast England where a growing number of voters say they no longer identify with the values of his Conservative party.
If Hunt loses Thursday’s election – and some opinion polls predict he will – his fate would symbolise not only a change of government but also the collapse of Conservative support in the Home Counties around London, which has been solid for more than a century.
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The 57-year-old was appointed in 2022 to stabilise the economy after former Chancellor Liz Truss caused the bond market crash and has focused as much on local issues as national ones in his election campaign, including backing a new cancer centre.
This is hardly surprising given the nationwide resentment towards the Conservative Party, which has been in power for 14 years.
According to polling firm Ipsos, 78% of voters say it’s time for change.
“Unfortunately, all the good he accomplished at the local level has been undone by his support for a harmful government.”
Julian Humphreys, 66, from Godalming, said of Mr Hunt: “And what matters now is what happens at national level.”
The new Godalming and Ash constituency in Surrey, created by boundary changes, is typical of the “stockbroker belt”, a collection of prosperous towns and villages within commuting distance of London.
In Godalming, where the downtown area was still decorated with flags commemorating the Normandy landings, voters who wanted competent government, low taxes and good schools have historically voted for the Conservative Party, or the party known as the Tories.
But that bond has been undermined by the turmoil caused by Brexit (Surrey voted to remain in the European Union), the turmoil of Truss and Prime Minister Boris Johnson and stagnant incomes, leaving many once-loyal voters exhausted by the party.
Tough times
Opinion polls suggest Labour will win comfortably nationally, but will face challenges from the centrist Liberal Democrats in areas like Surrey.
Pollster YouGov predicts the Liberal Democrats are ahead with 67 seats, with 57 likely to be lost from the Conservatives, including 24 in the south-east of England.
Mr Hunt, a senior minister for 11 of the past 14 years, including six as health secretary, told the rally in Godalming that while the Government “doesn’t get everything right”, it could be trusted to take tough decisions when they were needed.
“The Conservative party will fix the economy and that’s what I’ve set out to do as chancellor,” said the moderate Conservative who challenged Johnson for the leadership.
Hunt, a successful businessman before being elected in 2005, has never received less than 50% of the vote in his constituency.
YouGov predicts his approval rating will fall to 29% in Thursday’s election, with the Lib Dems on 46%.
A Hunt campaign source said it was a very close call.
“The job Jeremy has done as a local councillor is well respected locally, but the question is how much of it offsets the difficulties nationally,” said Adrian Gosling, a 60-year-old teacher from Cranleigh. He said bigger issues were foremost in his mind, including Conservative policies such as deporting illegal immigrants to Rwanda.
“The Conservative party is no longer the Conservative party it was 10, 15, 20 years ago,” he said. “People are looking to the Liberal Democrats, and perhaps other centrist candidates, to put the country back on track.”
Liberal Democrat candidate and local council leader Paul Follows said Surrey voters are “centre, moderate, progressive” and want a well-run government.
“Their values haven’t changed, but they’ve seen the parties they’ve voted for over the last 20 or 30 years move rightwards, in some cases very rapidly,” he said.
Labour and Green supporters had told Trump they would lend him their votes to oust the Conservatives, but there was no room for complacency: “This is going to be a fight to the end,” Trump said between door-to-door canvassing.
Strategic Voting
Linda Davis, a 74-year-old retiree, said her grandson had been advising her about strategic voting – voting for the party most likely to beat the Conservatives, even if she personally preferred a smaller party.
“We’ve all spoken to each other about it,” she said on the doorstep. “This year is different. I don’t want to waste my vote and I know that voting for a particular party will only waste it, so I’m going to vote Lib Dem.” The Liberal Democrats, who want higher health spending and eventually a return to the EU single market, are campaigning energetically to oust Mr Hunt in Godalming.
Other voters said they were moving away from the Conservatives but not because they were embracing an alternative.
“I’ve voted Conservative for most of my life but I’m not going to vote this time,” said Claire Lillywhite, from Whitley, adding that the party seemed to have “given up”. But she was not convinced by the Lib Dems.
Chris Hardy, a security trainer at Heathrow Airport, is also struggling with the decision. “I’ve been a Conservative all my life and I’d love to tell people to vote, but who else is there?” he said over a beer at the Greyhound pub in Ash.
He said his pencil “might hover over another candidate” when he goes to the polls, but “I think it’s going to come back to the Conservatives,” and that he can see “a pattern forming that’s sort of heading in the right direction.”
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