China “will probably experience the largest absolute population decline [of 204 million] “Between 2024 and 2054, potential losses for Japan and Russia reach 21 million and 10 million, respectively,” the report states.
However, longer-term population projections are more uncertain, the report adds.
China will report just 9.02 million births in 2023, the lowest level since records began in 1949.
The global fertility rate is 2.25 children per woman, but a replacement level of 2.1 children is needed to maintain a stable population size.
According to the United Nations, China, like about one-fifth of the world’s countries and regions, has what is known as an “extremely low fertility rate” – fewer than 1.4 children per woman in her lifetime.
China’s total fertility rate is expected to fall to 1.09 in 2022, according to estimates by the China Population Development Research Center, while that of Shanghai, one of China’s wealthiest cities, is expected to fall to 0.6 in 2023, the city said.
03:15
Amid population decline, young feminists oppose China’s pro-birth initiative
Amid population decline, young feminists oppose China’s pro-birth initiative
China did not officially release its total fertility rate for last year, but demographers said the country’s rate could fall below 1 in 2023.
The UN report estimated that Hong Kong and South Korea will have the lowest fertility rates in 2024, falling to an average of below 0.75 children per woman.
The UN added that world population is likely to peak this century sooner than expected, perhaps to about 8.2 billion people in the mid-2080s.
“The world’s population in 2100 is expected to be 6% lower, or about 700 million people, than projected a decade ago,” the UN report states.
“The earlier projected peak in world population is due to several factors, including lower than expected fertility rates in the world’s largest countries in recent years, particularly China.”
