US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said war with China is neither imminent nor inevitable.

US News

From the Associated Press

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told a meeting of top security officials on Saturday that war with China is not imminent or inevitable despite rapidly escalating tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, and stressed the importance of renewed dialogue with Beijing to avoid “miscalculation or misunderstanding.”

Austin’s remarks at the Shangri-La Defense Forum in Singapore came a day after he met with Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun on the sidelines of the forum for more than an hour. It was the first face-to-face meeting between defense officials since contact between the U.S. and Chinese militaries broke off in 2022 after then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, infuriating China.

Both countries have maintained their longstanding positions on Taiwan, which China claims as its territory and has not ruled out the use of force, and on China’s broader territorial claims in the South China Sea, which have brought China into direct confrontation with other countries in the region, particularly the Philippines.

Austin declined to reveal details about the conversation, but said the most important thing was that the two had started talking again.

“As long as we’re talking, we can identify the issues and we want to put guardrails in place to prevent misunderstandings and miscalculations that could spiral out of control,” he said.

“That can only happen when you’re talking.”

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., speaking at the same forum on Friday night, was blunt about what could be at stake, saying that if China were to confront the Philippine coast guard or merchant fleet to assert its territorial claims in the South China Sea and Filipinos were killed, “that would be very close to what we would define as an act of war and we would respond accordingly.”

Marcos added that he assumes that the Philippines’ treaty partners, including the United States, “are held to the same standard.”

In his speech, Austin praised President Marcos for “speaking forcefully last night about the Philippines’ assertion of sovereignty under international law,” but when pressed later, he did not say how the United States would respond if Filipinos were killed in a clash with China, saying it was hypothetical.

He said the U.S. commitment to the Philippines as a treaty party is “ironclad” and reiterated the importance of dialogue with China.

“We know that things can happen at sea and in the air,” he said, “but our goal is to make sure things don’t get unnecessarily out of control.”

Beijing has rapidly expanded its navy in recent years and has strengthened its claim to almost all of the South China Sea.

Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Richard Marles noted that not only have Philippine ships been rammed and subjected to water cannon fire by China, but also that earlier this year Chinese military aircraft dropped flares on an Australian helicopter and in November a Chinese naval vessel used sonar to injure an Australian diver in Japanese waters.

“In the face of these multiple sources of tension, it is even more important that countries play their role in managing growing strategic risks,” he said.

Meanwhile, the United States has been stepping up military exercises in the region with its allies to highlight its “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” vision, which aims to emphasize freedom of navigation in disputed waters, including the Taiwan Strait.

Senior Colonel Cao Yan, a researcher at the China Institute for War Studies, asked Austin whether the United States, with its emphasis on partnerships and alliances, was trying to create an Asian version of NATO, as China has called it.

He cited NATO ally Russia’s claim that NATO’s expansion eastward is a threat and suggested it could spark conflict with China, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has used as a pretext for invading Ukraine.

“NATO’s eastward expansion led to the Ukraine crisis,” Cao said. “What impact do you think the strengthening of the U.S. alliance system in the Asia-Pacific region will have on security and stability in the region?”

Austin rejected Kao’s interpretation of the causes of the Ukraine war, saying the US was simply working with “like-minded countries that share similar values” and was not seeking to create a NATO-like alliance.

“The Ukraine crisis clearly arose because of President Putin’s decision to illegally invade a neighboring country,” Austin said.

Indonesian scholar Dewi Fortuna Anwar expressed concerns among some in the region, saying any de-escalation would be “very welcome for the region” but questioned whether the United States would allow China’s aggressive military posture to expand unchecked if it placed a premium on dialogue.

“We’re worried that if you all get too close, we’ll get trampled on,” she said.

Austin said many of these issues are best resolved through talks, but he also assured that Washington would continue to ensure that the rights of countries in the region were protected and that access to their exclusive economic zones was maintained.

“In my view, war or combat with China is neither imminent nor inevitable,” Austin said.

“Leaders of major powers need to continue to work together to reduce the opportunities for miscalculation and misunderstanding,” he said. “Not every conversation will be a pleasant one, but it’s important that we continue to talk to each other. And it’s also important that we continue to support the interests of our allies and partners.”