Voters who might ditch Biden and Trump for RFK Jr.: From the Politico Desk

Welcome to the online edition From the Political Deskis an evening newsletter bringing you the latest coverage and analysis from the election campaign, the White House and Congress from the NBC News political team.

In today’s edition, national political reporter Ben Kamisher breaks down the latest focus groups with key groups of Georgia voters, plus chief political analyst Chuck Todd explores who stands to lose more in Thursday’s debate.

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Why fed-up Georgia voters are turning to candidates other than Biden and Trump

Ben Camisar

It’s not just a protest vote.

That’s one of the things a group of Georgia voters considering a third-party presidential candidate wanted to find out this week in an NBC News Deciders focus group produced in partnership with Engagious, Syracuse University and Sago.

Seven in 10 battleground state voters who participated voted for Donald Trump or Joe Biden in 2020 and now plan to support independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., while two are backing Professor Cornel West and one is backing Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver.

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But as Margaret Talev, one of the partners on the project, told me, “We’ve heard from voters interested in RFK Jr. before, but this group went further.”

“We’ve been asking focus group participants about RFK every month, and most of them admit that they’ve seen him as an alternative to Biden or Trump, or know the Kennedy name, but don’t know much about his record or policies. Georgia voters seem to be different,” Taleb said. “They’ve learned more about his positions on everything from vaccines to foreign policy, and they indicated they’d like to hear and see more from him.”

These voters don’t have very good things to say about Biden or Trump, and Biden’s age seems to be a big issue for them, as well as concerns (heard from both the left and the right) that as a candidate he’s not governing like he said he would.

And in Trump’s case, it’s not just his character but his actions surrounding the 2020 election, including the storming of the U.S. Capitol and his repeated false claims of victory, particularly in Georgia.

But the group also praised Kennedy for his outsider background, his environmentalism and his anti-establishment rhetoric — and even some who weren’t happy with his stance on vaccines saw reason to support him.

“A lot of people are voting no. They’re voting for the lesser of two evils. I don’t want to be that person,” said Shelley D., a 50-year-old from Roswell who supported Trump in 2020 but is now leaning toward Kennedy.

“I want to actually research and learn and vote for the person in my conscience. Even if that person has no chance of winning, or even if people think they have no chance of winning, I really want them to win,” she added.

Read more from our latest voter focus group →

Who has the most to lose from tomorrow’s debate?

Chuck Todd

The hardest part about gauging the potential impact of the first presidential debate is figuring out which candidate needs it most. A month ago, the answer was clear: Biden. His campaign wouldn’t have pushed for an early debate if it hadn’t concluded it needed something to shake up the race before the fall.

But with one guilty verdict on 34 charges, it’s less clear which candidate needs the debate the most. Why does it matter? Because if the debate doesn’t matter to a candidate right now, that candidate will be risk-averse in the debate itself.

Judging from my conversations with smart people on both sides, both campaigns seem quietly confident in their positions heading into the summer and this debate, something that wasn’t the case with the Biden campaign just a month ago.

A small but notable uptick in Biden’s support in various polls has given his campaign the first evidence that Trump’s legal troubles may be affecting his vote share. Add in recent favorable data showing a decline in violent crime in the U.S. and a robust economy, and you can see why Biden’s campaign is optimistic about reelection for the first time in more than a year.

But just as Biden has gotten stronger, so has Trump. Though he took a very small (and likely significant) hit in the polls after the conviction, his massive fundraising efforts over the last month helped him even the financial race with Biden much sooner than his campaign had anticipated.

Each side is hoping above all that the post-debate conversation will be about the other: The Trump campaign is hoping above all that Biden’s age will be the main talking point, while the Biden campaign is hoping above all that Trump’s erratic behavior will be the post-debate focus.

Continue reading Chuck →

This concludes the announcement from the Political Affairs Division. If you have any comments, please contact us by email here. politicsnewsletters@nbcuni.com

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