Welcome to this edition of the weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s Political Risk Advisory Team.
This week, we’ll take a closer look at USA-Taiwan trade negotiations. meanwhile, Japanese The main opposition party won all three seats in the by-election. Türkiye’s Two leading presidential candidates declared victory in the second of three televised candidate debates, as the ruling coalition plans to launch new efforts to revise the constitution. Mexicoand south africa The ruling party’s approval rating is barely above 40%.Enlarge this week’s graph Respect political dissent.
global snapshot
we and Taiwanese Trade negotiators are scheduled to begin new negotiations in Taipei this week. Asia expert Gabriel Wildo analyzes the situation.
What will be discussed?
The negotiations will be based on a negotiating mission aimed at establishing a “21st century” trade agreement agreed in 2022. Tariff cuts are not on the agenda, but the two sides plan to discuss agriculture, labor, digital trade, the environment and state-owned enterprises.
How will the Chinese government react?
Beijing has criticized the talks, along with other forms of high-level official engagement, but the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative said the talks were “conducted in line with the United States’ One China Policy.” There is.
what to see
Asia Pacific
Japan
The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, won all three seats in the April 28 parliamentary by-election, putting further pressure on embattled Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party has already chosen not to defend Nagasaki’s 3rd ward and Tokyo’s 15th ward, and suffered an embarrassing defeat in the central Shimane 1st ward. Japan is currently in Golden Week, and Prime Minister Kishida will depart on a six-day tour of Europe and South America on May 1, so it is unlikely that there will be any immediate political impact. The prime minister is likely to face greater criticism from within his own party upon his return. , his hopes of winning a second three-year term as Liberal Democratic Party leader in September further faded.
Europe
Serbia
This week, parliament is expected to approve a new cabinet led by Miloš Vucevic (Serbian Progressive Party, SNS). The constitutional deadline to elect a new government after parliamentary elections in December 2023 expires on May 6, the Orthodox Easter holiday. Unless a new government is approved within this period, the constitution requires the president to dissolve parliament and hold an early general election. The governing social media has promised to meet the deadline, but neither the date of the vote nor the proposed composition of the cabinet is currently known.
turkey
Despite defeats in recent local elections, the ruling coalition plans to launch new efforts to amend the constitution this week. Turkey’s Grand National Assembly Speaker Numan Kurtulums is scheduled to meet with party leaders this week to begin the process. Meanwhile, the ruling coalition’s junior partner, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), has declared that it is preparing a 100-article constitutional proposal. This is likely an attempt to gain influence ahead of talks with senior partner President Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development. Party (AKP).
England
Voters will go to the polls in local elections in England and Wales on May 2nd. More than 2,600 local councilors, mayors and police chiefs will be elected, as well as one by-election for a parliamentary seat. Depending on the extent of the Conservative Party’s expected overall defeat, it could spark renewed speculation about a leadership challenge to Chancellor Rishi Sunak and a general election by the autumn. Meanwhile, the resignation of Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf has once again highlighted the plight of the ruling Scottish National Party (SNP), a key element supporting Labor’s steady lead in national opinion polls.
latin america
Brazil
Government provokes Senate President with action in Supreme Court. The issue refers to the expansion of salary benefits to 17 economic sectors and local governments, which parliament passed with a comfortable majority. The government vetoed the bill, but Congress overrode the veto. The government then issued an executive order blocking the extension, as if to extend negotiations with Congress, but the effective date was delayed. However, on April 24, the Attorney General’s Office challenged the constitutionality of the bill in the Supreme Court of Justice (STF), demonstrating the government’s continued determination to block the extension of benefits. In addition, the STF’s rapporteur on the bill immediately issued an opinion favorable to the government, and his four other judges also followed the rapporteur. Although the government insists on avoiding further burdens on the budget, the impact of the 9.4 billion reais (US$1.9 billion) tax cut for businesses and local governments on salary allowances will likely be offset by 10 billion reais (US$2 billion). right. income.
Mexico
Claudia Sheinbaum and Xochitl Galvez declared victory in the second of three televised candidate debates on April 29th. Galvez’s performance was certainly more combative as he sought to close Mr. Sheinbaum’s poll lead, which polls put at 10 to 20 points. Galvez claims there are “hidden votes” in his favor because the polls are not registered. Sheinbaum attacked Galvez as a candidate for PRIAN, a combination of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the National Action Party (PAN), which was sponsored by President Andres Manuel López Obrador (AMLO). , continues to project a disciplined image. His presidency was reprehensible. In particular, he said the PRI remains deeply distrusted. The final debate will take place on May 19th, ahead of the vote on June 2nd.
middle east and africa
South Africa
According to the latest Ipsos poll, support for the ruling ANC among registered voters is just 40.2%. The ANC’s approval rating is at a record low, showing that its support is under downward pressure just a month before the May 29 election. Nevertheless, there are still hopes that the ANC will win more than 45% of the national vote, although the possibility of the second scenario – lower than 45% – has increased in recent months. The main opposition parties, the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), have not recorded significant gains in the polls, but the biggest wild card remains former president Jacob Zuma’s MK party. The Ipsos MK poll is at 8.4%, but Zuma’s health, his ouster, the signature forgery allegations, and the Constitutional Court case (currently scheduled for May 10) examining his parliamentary qualifications Amid all the speculation surrounding this, the camp may be at a turning point. .
As increasing levels of polarization impact many countries, respect for counterarguments It has decreased over the past 20 years. Political elites are increasingly less likely to acknowledge or respect opposing views when considering important policy changes. This trend is evident across different regions and regime types, according to data from the V-Dem project, a detailed democracy index run by political scientists. Typical examples of this trend include countries such as Mexico, Sweden, the United States, Turkey, and Spain.
The views and opinions expressed in these articles are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Teneo. They are provided to stimulate thought and discussion and are not intended to constitute legal, financial, accounting, tax, or other professional advice or counsel.
