Donald Trump and Joe Biden aren’t spending money to get Floridians to vote, but they desperately need your help.
“Without you, we’re finished,” one Facebook ad from May said. The Trump campaign presented to Floridians was: “Please keep the lights on for our campaign.”
“You guys know I hate asking,” one Biden campaign ad said before asking Facebook and Instagram users to donate.
Floridians on social media were far more likely to see ads soliciting donations from Biden and Trump than urging them to vote earlier this year: Both candidates solicited donations in 97% of the ads shown to Floridians on Facebook and Instagram this year, according to a Tampa Bay Times analysis of more than 10,000 Meta platform records from Jan. 1 through mid-June.
In a sign that Florida is no longer a battleground state, ads urging residents to vote have plummeted, while Biden and Trump are spending significantly less. Overall interest in Facebook advertising is higher this year than the same period in 2020, according to data from market research firm Sensor Tower.
The data analyzed did not include ads that ran since Biden’s debate performance last week. This has raised concerns among Democrats about his suitability as a candidate.
Florida has become more Republican than ever, and Biden said in April that the state was “winnable.” The Florida Supreme Court has allowed an amendment protecting abortion rights to appear on the 2024 ballot. But Sensor Tower analyst Abe Yousef said Biden has cut spending on Facebook ads in Florida while increasing spending in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Last month, Biden campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon said Florida is not a battleground state.
According to Sensor Tower data, Trump is spending less on Facebook ads in Florida than he did in 2020. Republican political consultant Steven Hilding of McShane LLC said that makes sense given Biden’s team is likely not focusing on the state this year.
“If I were President Trump, I wouldn’t be spending a lot of money on digital advertising right now outside of fundraising because I don’t think Florida is that competitive,” he said.
But Florida is a perfect target for donation ads. Its large population and wealthy donors make it one of the top three target states for political advertising so far this election season, according to Travis Ridout, director of the Wesleyan Media Project. While the party is directing fundraising ads at Florida, it is also directing almost entirely online persuasion ads at voters in battleground states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, Ridout said.
“Floridians are being asked to contribute to both digital and television advertising aimed at persuading out-of-state voters,” Ridout said.
Political experts say early advertising is often focused on fundraising. Still, the Trump and Biden campaigns Money is flowing into Florida at a higher rate than it did at this time last presidential election season.
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As of mid-June 2020, just under half of Facebook and Instagram ads were from Biden and Trump The ads shown at the Florida rally solicited funds, but instead, the majority of ads from that campaign cycle focused on engaging voters on issues like abortion, incarceration and race. (Unlike this year, Biden faced a competitive Democratic primary in 2020.)
Joshua Scacco, director of the Center for Sustainable Democracy at the University of South Florida, said ads are more likely to change voters’ minds when candidates are less well known, but that hasn’t been the case this year.
A New York Times analysis of ad-view estimates on Facebook’s platform found that Florida voters were much more likely to see Biden’s ads than Trump’s in this election because Biden initially raised more money while Trump was distracted by the trial, according to Sean Foreman, chair of the history and political science department at Barry University.
Foreman said the Biden campaign has been running digital ads in Florida to make its presence felt, in part because there hasn’t been as much physical activity.
“There’s a concern that Democrats aren’t doing enough in Florida, so I think this is a Band-Aid to at least show they’re continuing to promote it,” Foreman said.
Democratic political strategist Steve Scheer said Florida was attracting less attention than in past presidential elections, a sign the Biden campaign may be plotting a path to victory that doesn’t include Florida.
“We might call it a Tier 2 or even B state at this point,” Scheer said.
