ATHENS, Greece: Iranian reformist Massoud Pezechkian’s victory over hardline rival Saeed Jalili in Saturday’s presidential runoff election has offered a ray of hope to Iranians desperate for change, political observers said.
While many Iranians are too disillusioned with the government to be optimistic, some see Pezeshkian’s victory as a sign of the potential for reform in the midst of economic turmoil, corruption and a crackdown on dissent.
The first round of the election began on June 28, exactly one month after President Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash.
Newly elected Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian gestures during a visit to the shrine of Ayatollah Khomeini, founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran, in Tehran on July 6, 2024. (AFP)
But no candidate received more than 50% of the vote in the election, making turnout the lowest since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Videos circulating on social media platforms, including X, showed polling stations across the country nearly empty.
“How can you hold swords, gallows, weapons and prisons against your people in one hand and with the other hand place ballot boxes in front of those same people and issue deceptively false calls to vote?” jailed Iranian human rights activist and Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi said in a statement from Evin Prison.
Bio
- name: Massoud Pezechkian
- year of birth: 1954
- Hometown: Mahabad, Iran
- Profession: Cardiac surgeon
According to Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group (ICG), the disappointing turnout is part of a trend that began four years ago with the 2020 Iranian parliamentary elections.
“This clearly shows that the majority of Iranians have given up on the ballot box as a viable means for change,” he told Arab News.
“The head-to-head contest between Jalili and Pezeshkian in the second round was a contest between two extremes of the spectrum of system acceptance. Jalili’s hardline ideological approach and Pezeshkian’s moderate, liberal stance created sharp polarization that likely led to higher voter turnout. Jalili represents a confrontational foreign policy and restrictive social policies, while Pezeshkian advocates for moderate reforms and diplomatic engagement.”
Pezeshkian’s victory has left political analysts expressing cautious optimism.
“Pezezhkian won an election in which only 50 percent of voters cast their ballots. He does not have the kind of support that previous reform-minded presidents in Iran have enjoyed. But the boycott made his candidacy possible,” Esfandiyar Batmanghelizi, founder and CEO of the UK-based think tank Burus and Bazaar Foundation, told X on Saturday.
“Both voters and non-voters influenced this surprising outcome. Turnout was high enough to propel Pezeshkian to power, but low enough to delegitimize (the Iranian regime) and sustain political pressure for more significant change.”
Some Iranians say they don’t have high hopes for Pezeshkian’s rule but that they wanted change, even if it was small, and that’s why they decided to vote for him.
“I voted not because I have any particular expectations for his government, but because I believe that the explosive desire for change in society is now so strong, and is about to explode, that society itself would change a lot of things for the better, even if given a small opportunity,” Sadra Mohaqqi, an Iranian journalist who voted for Pezeshkian, said on Friday.
Pezeshkian, a cardiac surgeon and former health minister, is the first reformer to hold Iran’s presidency since 2005. His campaign promises include improving ties with the West and relaxing Iran’s mandatory headscarf laws.
Of mixed Azerbaijani and Kurdish descent, he also supports the rights of Iran’s ethnic minorities, who often bore the brunt of state-sanctioned violence during the 2022-2023 protests sparked by the death of Mahsa (Zina) Amini in police custody.
After Amini’s death, Pezeshkian said, “It is unacceptable in the Islamic Republic to arrest a girl simply because she was wearing a hijab and then hand over her body to her family.”
But just days later, amid nationwide protests and a brutal government crackdown, he warned protesters against “insulting the supreme leader.” It is clear to even the most optimistic of Iran observers that Pezeshkian must still defer to the head of state.
“Despite being a reformist, Pezeshkian is loyal to Iran’s supreme leader and Iranian reformists generally cannot pursue reforms that challenge the vision, goals and values of the Islamic revolution. The ultimate power lies with (Supreme Leader Ali) Khamenei, not with president-elect Pezeshkian,” Mohammed Albasha, senior Middle East analyst at the US-based Navanti Group, told Arab News.
Moreover, even if Pezechkian has demonstrated a strong will to push for reform, Iran’s political environment remains dominated by hardliners.
“Given Pezeshkian’s relatively low vote share, the continued conservative dominance of other government branches and the limitations of his presidential powers, he will face an uphill battle in expanding social and cultural rights at home and securing diplomatic engagement abroad, which he has stressed in debates and on the campaign trail,” Vaez said.
While Pezeshkian has voiced support for domestic reforms and improved international relations, he has also voiced clear support for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
He has denounced the former Trump administration’s decision to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization and has worn IRGC uniforms at public rallies.
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It is unclear how Pezeshkian will reconcile his views with his desire for cooperation with Western countries, especially given that the IRGC has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States, Sweden and Canada.
Increasing pressure for better ties with the West could also anger Iran’s strongest military and economic allies, including China and Russia.
But regardless of Pezechkian’s own wishes, he may not have much of a choice in the matter.
“The president in Tehran does not set the day-to-day agenda but is primarily responsible for implementing it. Nuclear policy, regional alliances and relations with the West are decided by the supreme leader and the Revolutionary Guards,” said Al-Basha of the Navanti Group.
Although Pezeshkian is not the head of state, he will undoubtedly have some influence over Iran’s domestic, foreign, and economic policies.
The government of Iran’s last reformist president, Mohammed Khatami, was marked by a degree of liberalization, including freedom of expression, a free-market economy and improved diplomatic ties with other countries.
Only time will tell how much change Pezechkian is willing or able to make.
ICG’s Baez said Pezeshkian’s election victory was not a turning point but “a new development in the complex political dynamics of a regime that remains divided between those who want to pacify the 1979 revolution and those who want to perpetuate it.”
