London is known for its open intellectual climate, where no idea is off limits. But even in this dynamic city, and even in Washington, it is almost blasphemous to suggest that Russia and the West can be partners, or that the United States and China can coexist as world powers. Recently, Nigel Farage, leader of the UK’s Reform Party, faced heavy criticism for calling the Ukraine war a “total stalemate” and urging the West to negotiate sensibly with Russia. People accused Farage of “playing along with Russian propaganda.”
It is often said that India has not fostered a society where all ideas are welcome. However, by proposing a new chapter,Hindi – Chini bhai-bhai“(India-China brotherhood) is not seen as sacrilege. The strong anti-China sentiment after the Galwan Valley clash in 2020 seems to have subsided. We are buying more Chinese products than ever before. Bilateral trade will cross $136 billion by 2023. Even those who burned Chinese goods in Gujarat and Delhi after the border clash are hopefully more open to the idea now.”
Sure, it may sound strange to suggest that India and China should become trusted partners like the US and India, or Russia and China, but it is not entirely impossible.
Major geopolitical changes
India’s rise to global power is unstoppable. Even China knows it. When I talk to Chinese scholars and journalists, I get the impression that they are open to building a long-term relationship based on mutual respect. They like India and want more people-to-people contact, one of them even wondering recently why India doesn’t try to cast a spell on the dragon through the soft power of Bollywood.
Both countries have a responsibility to lift millions of their combined population of 2.8 billion out of poverty. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged to make India a developed country by 2047, a huge task. Despite the challenges, if India and China work together and leverage each other’s strengths, it could be a major geopolitical shift with far-reaching implications for world politics.
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The United States and its allies may be shocked and deeply concerned by the close cooperation between India and China. Western countries have benefited from the competition in line with their strategy to counter China’s rise. Cooperation between the two Asian powers could undermine Western strategic interests in the region. Former Singaporean ambassador to the UN Kishore Mahbubani has said on multiple occasions that much of Asia would rejoice if this were to happen.
So, can India and China find common ground despite the tensions over the border dispute? Mahbubani believes that the two countries may never be best friends, but they can have a good working relationship. He even goes so far as to say that the 21st century will be the century of the CIA (China, India, ASEAN) countries. As the power of the US declines, these countries will drive global economic growth.
A rollercoaster ride
The idea that India and China are close friends is not new. Historically, the two countries have been like contentious neighbours, quarreling and reconciling. The two countries share a long history of cultural and economic exchange dating back more than 2,000 years. The Silk Road facilitated trade, and Buddhism, which originated in India, gained many followers in China. These ancient links laid the foundation for mutual respect and cultural affinity. During the colonial period, both countries faced conquest by Western powers, fostering a common sense of struggle.
Since gaining independence from Britain, India has faced border disputes with China, and relations between the two countries have remained tense. In the early 1950s, the relationship between the two countries wasHindi – Chinese Bhai-BhaiHowever, this cooperation did not last long: a border dispute escalated into an all-out war in 1962, leaving a permanent scar on the bilateral relationship, especially the disputed border between Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh, which remains a contentious issue.
Before the Galwan incident, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was naturally leaning towards building ties with China. As Chief Minister of Gujarat, he visited China four times to attract investment. As Prime Minister, he visited China twice, and President Xi Jinping reciprocated with two visits to India. The two countries have emerged as global economic powers and are engaged in significant economic competition and areas of cooperation within multilateral frameworks such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
Strategic competition
Strategically, India and China are suspicious of each other. China’s closer ties with Pakistan, its infrastructure projects in South Asia under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and its military presence in the Indian Ocean raise India’s security concerns.
Conversely, India’s growing ties with the US and its participation in the Quad (Quad Security Dialogue) have raised concerns from China. The Galwan Valley clashes in 2020 have exacerbated tensions and highlighted the fragility of relations between the two countries. Despite several rounds of military and diplomatic talks, a comprehensive resolution to the border dispute remains elusive.
Mumbai’s Shanghai Dream
Many young Indians may not know that not so long ago, India compared itself to Pakistan in every respect. This attitude changed around the turn of the millennium, when the Maharashtra state government launched a massive project to makeover Mumbai in 2004, based on the Vision Mumbai report by Bombay First, an organization made up of Mumbai’s super-rich stakeholders. The report outlined a strategy to turn Mumbai into “another Shanghai.” While the Mumbai makeover project is still “in progress,” it was this project that started the comparison of India with China. Today, China sees India as a great rival, at least in Asia.
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Projections suggest that by 2027, India will overtake Germany and Japan to become the world’s third-largest economy. However, today, India’s economy is only 19% of China’s, despite feeding roughly the same number of people. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India’s nominal GDP in 2023 will be $3.5 trillion, compared with China’s $18.2 trillion. India’s per capita income will be $2,411, compared with China’s $12,720. Last year, China’s exports exceeded $3.38 trillion, while India’s exports were $778 billion.
Collaboration possibilities
Since China opened up its economy in 1978, it has lifted 800 million people out of poverty, a feat unmatched by any other government in history. India has also succeeded in significantly reducing poverty. Both countries have the capacity to help millions more. Cooperation in economic development, technology, infrastructure, environmental initiatives, health care, cultural exchanges and geopolitical stability will benefit both countries and the world. It is crucial that we overcome historical tensions and build trust through consistent dialogue.
Intense competition between the United States and China will continue, and India will continue to face pressure from the United States to remain a reliable partner in efforts to manage China. However, India’s strategic positioning between the United States and China could work to its advantage. Ultimately, New Delhi’s strategic interests will be best served by a balanced approach that navigates the complex dynamics of U.S.-China relations while advancing its own national objectives.
India knows that border neighbours sometimes fight with each other, but it can still continue to believe in the adage “love your neighbour”.
(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a senior London-based Indian journalist with 30 years of experience in the Western media.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.
