The left-wing coalition has not yet supported a coalition that extends beyond its own camp, but Macron’s camp is betting on a split within it, for example between moderate socialists and the most radical elements of the Unbowed French Movement.
Coalition negotiations are largely uncharted territory in France’s recent history over the past two decades. Parliamentary elections typically see the government formed by an overwhelming majority of candidates from the same political camp as the president. This was complicated by Macron’s loss of the majority in his party in 2022. However, his camp still held the most seats, meaning he could appoint a prime minister from his own camp.
What’s next?
Mark your calendars: Starting Thursday, July 18th, things may start to become a little clearer.
On that day, lawmakers will gather in Parliament for the first time to vote to select the next Speaker of Parliament.
The president of the National Assembly has a key role in steering the debate and discussion. But these elections will be watched more closely than ever because they will provide the first signs of whether any alliances are forming. They may offer insight into how the French parliament will function in the future.
If an absolute majority of the National Assembly (more than half of the voting members) agrees during the vote, Look.There is a president. If you think it is more likely If no candidate receives an absolute majority on the first two rounds of voting, the candidate with the most votes on the third round becomes president.
At that point, the left-leaning New Popular Front should be able to pick someone from within the party, unless other groups converge on a different candidate. Keep an eye on this, as it could reveal another alliance to form a government.
