The issue for Massachusetts Republicans this year is what to do about a former president who has been impeached twice and faces criminal charges but is seeking re-election. (Matt Luke/Associated Press)
Local Republicans have been faced with the challenge this year of what to do about a former president who has been impeached twice and is seeking another term in the White House while also facing criminal charges.
Talking about Donald Trump is a double-edged sword.
Endorsing Trump risks alienating Democrats and independents who conservatives need to win over their opponents, but rejecting him risks angering right-wing voters who are part of the candidate’s base.
“Trump is a sensitive issue for Republican candidates in Massachusetts because Biden is likely to beat Trump 2-to-1 in the general election, and being too identified with Trump could become an anchor around the candidates’ necks,” said Rob Gray, a veteran political strategist who worked on the campaigns of former governors Charlie Baker and Mitt Romney.
Another option?
Others are urging current and aspiring politicians to use the election as an early referendum on Governor Maura Healey’s short tenure, which has already seen a number of crises emerge beyond the influx of new immigrants.
Candidates need to “run on the issues, not on the backburner,” said Holly Robichaux, a Republican strategist who has worked on several campaigns this season, pointing out that Sen. Peter Durant made the Healey administration’s handling of immigration a central issue of his campaign when he won last year.
“This is not Indiana. This is not Florida. This is not South Carolina. Republican candidates need to run on the issues to let people know where they stand, not on the backburner,” she said. “They will win if they make this a referendum on Maura Healey. Governor Haley has not acted on her promise to make Massachusetts more affordable housing and she has not delivered on that promise.”
A spokesman for Healey’s campaign declined to comment and referred the Herald to the Massachusetts Democratic Party.
“Voters understand that a vote for the Republican candidate is, simply put, a vote to bring Trumpism to Massachusetts,” Steve Kerrigan, chairman of the Massachusetts Democratic Party, said in a statement to the Herald this week.
Even if Republicans try to capitalize on the potential benefits of Trump coming out on top in the November general election, analysts don’t expect it to have much effect.
Costas Panagopoulos, chair of the political science department at Northeastern University, said that if the magnitude of Trump’s impact on lower-level elections in 2016 is any indication, the impact this year will be “very modest.”
“It all depends on how the election ultimately plays out and how big the margin is for whoever wins the election,” he said in an interview. “If the margin is larger, the impact tends to be more pronounced. But in recent election cycles, the margin has been very small and narrowing, and I expect that to continue in 2024.”
If Republicans decide to tie their campaigns to Trump, they may find it most beneficial to focus on the former president’s immigration policies, said Thomas Whalen, an associate professor of social sciences at Boston University.
Whalen said the influx of immigrants into Massachusetts and the cost of housing them in shelters has resonated strongly, “especially among blue-collar and working-class voters.”
“Especially in tough economic times with inflation, they feel like, ‘Why are we using our tax dollars to help these people?’ This is an issue that President Trump has emphasized across the country, and I think this issue will be a key issue here in Massachusetts this fall,” he said.
The Trump tightrope walk for Massachusetts Republicans will be an even tougher balance for local candidates such as John Deaton and Ian Cain, who are running federally to replace Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
“It’s going to be harder not to talk about Trump because you’re dealing with issues at the federal level, and a lot of that depends on who wins the next presidential election,” said Gray, who runs Gray Media Group. “The tap dance that local Republican candidates have to do is going to be like treading water on a hot stone for Republican House candidates.”
