A week ago, the spectacular Northern Lights stunned millions of Americans. Experts and aurora trackers say this was likely just the beginning of the spectacle as the sun heads toward its so-called “solar maximum.”
But when exactly will the aurora appear again? Experts say conditions are ripe for the aurora to appear in the coming years, but it remains difficult to predict exactly when and where it will occur. is. Even the best forecasts are accurate only days or hours in advance.
Aurora tracker Melissa F. Kaelin told USA TODAY in an email a few days after the event. The dramatic appearance of the aurora borealis last week near Dexter, Michigan, “is comparable to anything I’ve seen in the 12 years I’ve been chasing the aurora, and the excitement still gives me chills,” she said.
Amazingly, the Northern Lights were visible in all 50 states of the United States, all over Europe, and even in Australia last week.
Experts say now is the best time to chase the Northern Lights.
“Solar maximum has definitely arrived,” SpaceWeather.com astronomer Tony Phillips told USA TODAY in an email this week. Phillips said the solar maximum could last two to three years.
“The May 10 superstorm may have been just the first of several spectacular events we will experience between now and 2026,” he said.
So what’s causing this excitement? Why are the Northern Lights suddenly so visible? Experts say it’s all to do with the sun, the solar cycle, and solar maximum. Here are the details:
What is the solar cycle? What is the solar maximum?
The solar cycle tracks the activity level of our closest star, the Sun. Periods are traditionally measured by increases and decreases in the number of sunspots, but they also coincide with increases in solar flares, coronal mass ejections, radio emissions, and other forms of space weather.
“The sun has an 11-year cycle of periods of maximum and minimum,” Shannon Schmoll, director of Michigan State University’s Abrams Planetarium, told USA TODAY in an interview last year. “This determines the number of sunspots we see on the sun. Sunspots originate from areas of the sun with strong magnetic fields.”
The number of sunspots on the sun’s surface changes in a fairly regular cycle that scientists call the sun’s 11-year solar cycle. Sunspot activity, and therefore auroral activity, tends to peak every 11 years.
Sunspots cause solar flares and coronal mass ejections, which trigger geomagnetic storms that cause the appearance of auroras on Earth.
“We are entering the peak of solar cycle 25.” Erica Grow Saya National Weather Service spokesperson told USA TODAY in an email this week. “This period of high activity is expected to continue into the first half of 2025,” she added, meaning further opportunities to see the aurora borealis will continue for at least next year.
Mr Kaelin said the solar maximum, which occurs once every 11 years, “has great potential for aurora chasers, but until Friday (May 10), I fear it will be a quiet year.” “I was there,” he said. She said that although there have been many impressive solar flares, “the solar wind jets that these eruptions generate have mostly been directly away from the Earth. Until now!”
One solar flare that exploded from the sun this week was the strongest in seven years, but it moved away from Earth, scientists said.
When is the next aurora show? We don’t know until a few days or even hours in advance.
What will the Northern Lights look like in the coming days and months?
“Even more opportunities may be waiting for us in the coming days as we watch the number of sunspots explode,” Kaelin said in an email this week. “But we can only predict these effects with certainty up to about three days in advance, and that is an emerging science.
“Humanity still has much to learn about space weather,” she acknowledged.
True, aurora predictions are fickle. Unlike terrestrial weather, scientists predicting space weather, including the aurora borealis, must rely on observations of the sun 93 million miles away to make their predictions.
“There’s so much uncertainty that it’s hard to predict,” Space Weather Prediction Center program coordinator Bill Murtagh told USA TODAY last year. And just as it is difficult to predict the weather here on Earth, “we are decades behind the predictive ability of our meteorology colleagues,” he acknowledged, referring to space weather.
The solar cycle dates back to colonial times.
How are solar cycles measured? “The timing of solar cycle maxima and minima is predicted primarily based on past values and verified through observations,” Shi told USA TODAY. Ta.
“This cycle is about 11 years and is very predictable in that respect. This solar cycle is known as the 25th cycle because it has been tracked for a long time, going back to colonial times,” she said. Ta.
“Here’s a graph of the current cycle. You can see that it’s hotter than originally predicted,” Cei said.
Aurora also poses a danger to the power grid
However, along with the exciting news about the increase in aurora sightings, there are also worrying aspects of increased solar activity. Solar activity can interfere with power grids, degrade GPS signals, increase orbital drag for satellites, and pose radiation risks to airline crews and astronauts. The Space Weather Prediction Center warned.
As the solar cycle strengthens, more powerful solar storms will emerge, posing greater risks to these critical technologies and services, the prediction center said.
Minor disruption from last week’s geomagnetic storm
The solar storm, which prompted NOAA to issue its first warning in 19 years, disrupted the power grid and caused interference with GPS signals and even farm equipment.
But “based solely on the impacts reported to us, the disruption was minor,” Cei said this week. “While we may be able to provide more details in the future, many stakeholders have asked us to share this information in general terms, so we are unable to do so at this time.”
In general, the preparation paid off, she added. “Based on the information we’ve collected so far, which will be an ongoing process, it’s been a combination of infrastructure improvements over the past decade or so, coupled with better predictive information and decision support.” Space Weather Prediction Center Information from the United States led Americans to experience a low-impact event. ”
more:NOAA discovers another solar flare following solar magnetic storm: ‘It’s not over yet’
What is the Northern Lights?
The aurora is a natural light phenomenon that appears in the Earth’s skies and is famous for being most commonly seen in high latitude regions.
Auroras are formed when particles flowing from the sun get caught up in the Earth’s magnetic field. According to NASA, the particles interact with molecules of atmospheric gases, causing the aurora borealis’ famous glowing green or reddish colors.
According to the University of Alaska Fairbanks, the color of the light is determined by the composition and density of the atmosphere and the height of the collision. “The aurora borealis is often seen as a striking green color, but occasionally it can also display other colors, from red to pink and blue to purple,” the university said on its website.
