Georgia Tech football is one of the least talked about teams heading into the 2024 season, but I think you’d be wrong. They’re going to have one of the best offensive lines in the ACC (maybe in the country?), and despite having the most brutal offensive line, they could be an ACC contender by overhauling the defensive side of the football. I hope so. This is a nationwide schedule. According to the latest SP+ rankings from ESPN’s Bill Connelly, Georgia Tech is projected to be a top-tier offensive player, but is lagging behind the Yellow Jackets in projected defensive rankings.
Connelly released his latest SP+ rankings today, with Georgia Tech ranked 63rd with a projected 35th offense and 99th defense, with a 68th special teams unit.
So what exactly is SP+ and what goes into creating these rankings? Here’s how Connelly formulated the rankings in his own words.
“I base my SP+ predictions on three main factors, weighted by their predictability.
1. Restart production. Production numbers returned are based on rosters updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. A combination of adjustments based on last year’s SP+ rating and production returns accounts for about half of the forecast equation.
2. Recent recruitment activities. This article will inform us of the capabilities of potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the team’s lineup. This is determined by recruiting rankings from past years in descending order (i.e., the most recent classes are given the most weight). Starting this season, we are incorporating transfers in a different way both in quality and quantity. After last season’s transfer-heavy recruiting shift, we now have a little more data on how to deal with it. This part occupies approximately one-third of the projection ceremony.
3. Recent history. Using a little bit of information from previous seasons (2-4 years ago) can give you a good idea of the overall health of your program. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to repeat that effort than a team that has played well for many years (and vice versa). This is a small piece of the puzzle (only about 15%), but the projection is better with it than without it.
A note about SP+: This is a measure of college football efficiency adjusted by tempo and opponent. This is a measure that predicts the most sustainable and predictable aspect of football, not a resume ranking. Similarly, these predictions are not intended to speculate on what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the day. Year. These are just early offseason power rankings based on the information we’ve been able to gather to date. ”
Here’s how ACC teams rank according to SP+.
1. Florida (12th in the nation)
2. Clemson (14)
3. Miami (19)
4.SMU (23)
5. Louisville (28)
6. NC State (29)
7. Virginia Tech (32)
8. Duke (47)
9. North Carolina (50)
10. Cal (52)
11. Georgia Tech (63)
12. Syracuse (64)
13. Boston College (75)
14. Virginia (77)
15. Wake Forest (78)
16. Pit (81)
17. Stanford (84)
According to these rankings, you might notice that Georgia Tech only faces one ACC team that is projected to be worse than it actually is, and that’s No. 64 Syracuse. While victory isn’t guaranteed, Georgia Tech doesn’t get the benefit of playing many teams ranked lower than it. They are in SP+.
The two biggest concerns facing Georgia Tech this season will be defense and an improved schedule.
Georgia Tech had the worst defense in the nation in 2023, but has worked to improve it this offseason. Coach Brent Key revamped his defensive staff this offseason, bringing in former Duke defensive coordinator Tyler Santucci and adding players like Jess Simpson (defensive line), Kyle Pope (outside linebacker/edge), and Corey Santucci. He will lead the defense along with Peoples (defensive back). They were active in the transfer portal during both the spring and winter periods, bringing in players at every level of their defense. How much can they improve? That question could determine the outcome of this season.
Schedules are always daunting, and 2024 will be no different. The Yellow Jackets are playing 11 teams that made bowl games last season, including rivals Georgia and Notre Dame. These won’t count toward your conference record, but they’ll still be very difficult. The opening game will be against defending champion Florida State of the Irish, and they will also face North Carolina State, Louisville, Miami, and Virginia Tech. With one of the toughest schedules in the country, every week will be a challenge for them.
Another thing they have to fix is turnovers on offense. Haynes’ King had a great season last year, but he also led the ACC in interceptions, some of which were big losses. If he can cut down on his interceptions, this offense could move forward even further.
If you’re still not sold on all of this, just listen to what Josh Pate, one of the leading voices in the sports world, has to say. On a recent episode of Late Kick, Pate called the Yellow Jackets one of the most underrated teams in the country heading into this year.
“I would say Georgia Tech is a little bit underrated. The difference with Georgia Tech is they have a pretty tough schedule. I’m not going to lie, they played Georgia every year. Last year. are 7-5, with 5.5 total wins, and I think it’s mostly because of their quarterback, with Haynes King still there. Their offense is top 10 in their return this year. The wide receiver room was 123rd last year.I think they had a lot of yards allowed last year, but they overhauled the defensive staff and the defensive roster as well. They’re the opposite of Nebraska in the sense that if you get that defensive play, that’s a good thing.”
It will be interesting to see how Georgia Tech does in SP+ this year. As of now, they will start the season in 63rd place.
