“Houston, we have a problem!”
This message of desperation reverberated among Democrats after the first presidential debate, when four years of relentless attacks, from allegations of dictatorial government to questions about their mental and physical health to fears of national ruin, culminated in this showdown between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. And in a surprising twist, Trump unexpectedly appeared more presidential than Biden that night.
The debate, held on a hot June night in Atlanta, drew attention for its unusual timing and the decision to bypass the Commission on Presidential Debates and instead opt for a network-sponsored format. Historically, fall presidential debates have had a major impact on election outcomes, with memorable moments like the 1960 Kennedy-Nixon debate and Reagan’s 1984 quip about his youthful opponent shaping national perceptions and voter behavior.
These debates often serve as an important platform for candidates to present their vision, counter their opponents, and connect with voters on a personal level. The 2020 Biden-Trump debate was marked by interruptions and contentious exchanges, leaving many voters divided on the candidates’ performances. The two 2020 debates helped Biden present himself as the leader America needs to address the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath.
But that was four years ago when Biden appeared as a confident challenger eager to restore normalcy in the White House. Today, however, he struggled to defend his record and policies. His responses were inconsistent and incoherent, reinforcing concerns about his age and ability to lead. This sparked significant post-debate discussion about his viability as a candidate, with some analysts suggesting he should step aside in favor of a stronger candidate at the Democratic convention.
In contrast, Donald Trump emerged as the winner. His confident demeanor, sharp sarcasm, and assertive style resonated with many viewers, even though what he said was often factually incorrect. Trump’s performance was reminiscent of the 2016 election campaign, when his irreverence appealed to a base of voters looking for a non-traditional politician.
There are some fundamental principles that govern the candidates’ strategies and predictions in the presidential debates. Both Biden and Trump knew they were speaking to valuable independent voters in five key states that will decide the outcome of this election. Let’s evaluate both candidates and see how they fare.
Do no harm
The first ground rule for any candidate is to avoid gaffes. In today’s debate, Biden caused more damage to himself than Trump could have caused. Biden came across as a frail, demented old man. At one point, his incoherent speech prompted Trump to scathingly remark, “I didn’t get that last part of what he said. Maybe he doesn’t know what he’s talking about.” There was no audience in the studio, but I can picture Trump supporters across the country giggling and high-fiving in their living rooms.
Meanwhile, expectations for Trump were so low that his factual inaccuracies, repeated evasions, and vapid answers did him no harm. In fact, Biden’s weak performance made him look stronger. From the podium, Trump repeatedly spewed populist lies, ignored the moderator’s questions, and blamed Biden for his own shortcomings. But none of this seemed to hurt his image. Instead, he emerged stronger, more confident, and more decisive.
Winner: Trump
Present a clear vision
Candidates in these debates are coached to articulate their policies, vision for the country and plans to address key issues. Biden struggled to deliver a memorable speech, in part because he was unable to deliver his rehearsed lines effectively. He faltered, especially when touting and defending his record. Questions on inflation, immigration and the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza were opportunities to explain complex issues to voters and gain their trust. But Biden tried and failed.
He struggled to make his point, so he ended up saying his administration “defeated Medicare.” He was presumably trying to talk about how his policies reformed Medicare. Trump jumped on the remark, quipping, “He defeated Medicare. He defeated it like crazy.” Trump launched similar attacks when Biden spoke about inflation, the economy, immigration and foreign policy.
It was clear that Trump had no detailed vision and didn’t dwell on policy details. He knew his supporters didn’t want policy lectures. He made good use of the techniques he used in the 2015 campaign, presenting himself as an expert on issues like immigration, war, and climate, even if he lacked depth in his own thinking. He gave an impromptu speech, and it worked!
The ability to communicate effectively and persuasively is crucial in these debates – something Biden failed in and Trump succeeded in.
Winner: Trump
Refuting an Opponent
Debates provide an opportunity to directly challenge positions, records and statements. An effective rebuttal can sway undecided voters and strengthen the views of supporters. Trump employed this strategy. Remember in 2020, when Trump came across as annoying with his frequent interruptions? Not tonight. Trump was careful. He waited for Biden to finish his answers before challenging Biden on his record on issues ranging from immigration to the climate crisis.
At one point, Trump bragged that under his administration, America has the best water and the cleanest air. Biden didn’t even refute such an outlandish statement. His failure to fact-check Trump’s comments multiple times allowed Trump to win the debate and made Biden look ineffective as president. Biden missed the opportunity to counter Trump on his xenophobic views on immigrants, his plans for retaliation if re-elected, his lack of a strategy to end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and his approach to inflation and the economy.
Biden allowed Trump a brief “I’m done!” moment that would make even a high school student shiver. No amount of post-debate fact-checking can match the impact of looking your opponent in the eye and calling out their lies. A debate is your chance to show voters what you stand for and how you are different from your opponent. Unfortunately, Biden failed to do that. And even worse, he handed the spotlight over to Trump. It’s hard to imagine undecided voters being impressed by Biden tonight.
Winner: Trump
Connecting with voters
One of the most important aspects of these debates is the opportunity for candidates to connect emotionally and personally with voters, demonstrating empathy, understanding and relatability. This debate was a golden opportunity for Biden to speak directly to more than 100 million voters and address concerns about his age and ability to govern.
But when Dana Bash gave him the opportunity to address the issue, he failed. Biden’s age has been a central issue in this race, and many Democratic insiders have questioned his suitability since 2022. This was a moment that should have shown him as an experienced elder statesman who could handle a range of issues decisively. Instead, Biden appeared confused and disconnected, unable to connect even with his supporters.
In 2020, Biden spoke frequently about his late son Beau, connecting emotionally with voters who lost loved ones during the pandemic. But tonight he seemed detached, and his messaging on inflation, the economy and jobs was off-putting.
Trump honed his skills here. He spoke plainly and made his case to voters in an easy-to-understand way. He knew people in battleground states were unhappy with high food prices and job opportunities. He knew immigration was a big issue. He addressed these concerns directly, even when the question was irrelevant. Trump spoke directly to the public in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin, emphasizing how his presidency had been the best thing for jobs and the economy. Trump connected not only with his base, but also with the battleground voters who will decide the election on November 5th.
Winner: Trump
Staying true to your message
Candidates typically prepare key messages and talking points to ensure consistency and clarity throughout the debate and to strengthen their campaign narrative.
But apart from discussing abortion and January 6, Joe Biden struggled to get his message across. In stark contrast, Trump set a great example of focus: His message has remained the same since 2015: “Make America Great Again.”
His solution was simple: elect him. He promised a better economy, great jobs, a strong foreign policy without war, and immigration control, the root cause of many of America’s problems. Throughout the 90-minute debate, Trump repeatedly emphasized these points, arguing that the only obstacle to American greatness was Joe Biden.
Biden tried to stay true to his message, focusing on inclusivity, healthcare, women’s health (including access to birth control and abortion), building an international coalition to tackle global challenges, and immigration, but every time Biden tried to portray Trump in a negative light, Trump ended up taking center stage.
For example, when Biden highlighted his plan to reduce the cost of insulin from $400 to just $35 a month, Trump interjected that it was the first executive order he passed in 2020, stealing some of the credit from Biden.
Winner: Trump
Dealing with pressure
Campaigns spend weeks preparing their candidates to think on the fly, handle pressure, and answer unexpected questions or challenges from moderators and opponents. This is where the traditional “clack” moments come in handy: Think back to 2012, when Rick Perry couldn’t name a federal agency he’d abolish, or 2012, when President Obama was stumped by Romney on issues ranging from the economy to Russia.
Trump emerged undeterred and ready to fight, dodging questions about January 6 by highlighting his record as president and refusing to answer when pressed on whether he would accept the outcome of the upcoming election.
Biden, by contrast, struggled with the pressures of incumbency. His performance was so bad he couldn’t even remember there was a convicted felon on the debate stage, much less point out who it was. Crushed under the weight of expectation, Biden never recovered.
Winner: Trump
The impact of this debate on the upcoming election cannot be understated. With Trump using his signature style to dominate the narrative and Biden fumbling to respond, the debate sparked new debates about the direction of the Democratic campaign. The coming months will be crucial as both candidates refine their strategies and prepare for the next round of debates, traditionally held in September and October closer to the election.
This debate could be a turning point in this election cycle. History has shown that debates can have a major impact on public perceptions and election outcomes, and the recent exchange between Biden and Trump is no exception. A key takeaway is the importance of clear communication, empathy, and the ability to connect with voters – traits that Trump demonstrated effectively and Biden struggled to convey.
(Rohit Sharma is an award-winning journalist based in Washington, DC)
(The opinions expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author)
