Commentary
The court is scheduled to hear cases on Tuesday involving Prime Minister Suretta Thavisin, the Forward Movement Party, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the Senate elections.
The future of Thai Prime Minister Surendra Thavisin and the main opposition party is likely to be decided this week in four key rulings that threaten to trigger a new political crisis.
The court is due to announce its ruling on Tuesday in four cases involving Mr Suretta, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the main opposition Forward Movement Party (MFP) and the process for electing a new Senate.
Thailand’s politics have long been marred by conflict between the military-backed conservative, royalist establishment and the populist, reformist parties backed by Thaksin Shinawatra and the MFP, leading to mass protests and military coups.
“These incidents highlight the fragility and complexity of Thailand’s political landscape,” ANZ Research said in a note, warning of a return to protests.
What about the Prime Minister?
Suretta, who made his fortune in real estate before entering politics, became prime minister in August last year after Pita Limcharoenrat, who led the MFP to victory in the May 2023 election, was blocked from forming a government.
On Tuesday the president could receive a ruling from the Constitutional Court, or a new hearing date could be set, on whether he violated the constitution by appointing people with criminal records to his cabinet.
Sletta denies any wrongdoing but could be fired if the court rules against him.
If he is removed, his Pheu Thai party will have to propose a new candidate for prime minister and parliament will have to vote on his appointment.
What is your reason for opposing MFP?
The second scenario could lead to the dissolution of the reformist Forward Party, which won the most seats and the most votes in last year’s election.
The Constitutional Court is due to announce its verdict on the Election Commission’s charges that the party broke the law by campaigning for reform of the royal insult law.
MFP denies any wrongdoing.
The institution withdrew its calls for reform after the Constitutional Court ruled in January that the calls amounted to an attempt to overthrow the monarchy.
Its predecessor, the Future Party, also performed well in the 2019 elections before being dissolved by a court ruling.
What about Thaksin?
Thaksin, a telecommunications tycoon who dominated Thai politics and was ousted in a 2006 military coup, returned to Thailand after the Suretta government took power last year.
On Tuesday, a criminal court in Bangkok is expected to formally charge him with royal insult in relation to a media interview he gave in 2015.
A court will then decide whether to grant bail to Thaksin, who maintains his innocence. “There is no basis for this case,” he told reporters earlier this month.
Thailand’s lese majeste laws are among the toughest in the world, carrying a maximum prison sentence of 15 years for each offence.
The 74-year-old returned to Thailand for a rock-star reception last August after 15 years in self-imposed exile.
What about the senators?
The Constitutional Court is also due to rule on the ongoing selection of 200 senators after receiving a petition questioning whether the three-week process was lawful.
If the process is halted or postponed, it would temporarily extend the terms of military-appointed lawmakers who play a key role in forming a government, including in last year’s maneuver that thwarted the MFP.
The current senate was selected by the military after a 2014 coup that ousted the elected Pheu Thai Party government led by Thaksin’s sister, who still lives in self-imposed exile.
The process of selecting the next senators began on June 9, with the third and final phase scheduled for June 23.
