Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa is facing what experts say is the biggest threat to his rule yet as a succession battle erupts ahead of general elections scheduled for 2028.
Recent manoeuvrings by the president and his supporters to extend his rule to 2030 have led to calls and protests from within his party for the president to step down or be forced to do so. The upheavals have seen the dismissal of top security officials, a move experts say Mnangagwa is taking to avoid being overthrown in a coup.
The president has long faced criticism from Zimbabweans, but dissent within his ZANU-PF party is rare, and public calls for demonstrations against him are unprecedented. On Monday, demonstrators took to the streets in protests called by a top ZANU-PF member.
Zimbabwe has for decades been mired in political crises that have led to economic stagnation, a dearth of jobs, and general government dysfunction. Hyperinflation over the past two decades has pushed the South African country’s economy to its knees and wiped out the savings of common people.
“Zimbabweans are tired and need a messiah,” Blessing Vava, director of human rights group Crisis Zimbabwe, told Al Jazeera.
Here’s what to know about the latest crisis:
What’s the problem with ZANU-PF?
An internal split within the ruling ZANU-PF party, which has held power since Zimbabwe’s independence in 1980, is driving the current crisis.
Two main factions are at loggerheads, one supporting a prolonged term for Mnangagwa, 82, and another one supporting the ascendancy of Constantino Chiwenga, his 68-year-old vice president.
Mnangagwa came to power in 2017 amid promises of democratic and economic reforms. However, critics say corruption levels have remained high, the opposition has been targeted, and the economy has continued to slide.
Can Mnangagwa rule beyond 2028?
Zimbabwe’s constitution has a two-term limit for presidents. Mnangagwa is currently in his second elected term, which ends in 2028 when elections are due.
However, some members of the ZANU-PF party have been chanting a “2030 agenda” since last year, saying the president should stay in power for a third term to continue his reforms, although that would violate the constitution.
At a conference in December, the party officially adopted a motion to extend Mnangagwa’s rule till 2030. That’s subject to the approval of the Senate and a national referendum, but the motion has prompted nationwide debate and controversy.
Who is Blessed “Bombshell” Geza?
Within ZANU-PF, a dissenting faction led by Blessed “Bombshell” Geza, a liberation war veteran and senior party member, has since held conferences to speak out against Mnangagwa. He has accused the government of being corrupt and called on people to protest. In one video published on social media, he regretted supporting the president’s rise to power.
“As soon as he [Mnangagwa] had the taste of power, he escalated corruption, forgot the people, and only remembered his family,” Geza said. The politician said Mnangagwa would be forced out and accused him of “surrendering” power to his wife and kids, who he said are powerful behind-the-scene actors in the president’s third term bid.
First Lady Auxillia Mnangagwa, alongside her husband and several other government officials, were sanctioned by the United States in March 2024 for alleged involvement in illicit diamond and gold networks. In 2023, an Al Jazeera investigation revealed that Zimbabwean officials were using smuggling gangs to sell the country’s gold to soften the impact of sanctions.
However, Geza’s critics point out that he, too, is part of the establishment that has long controlled Zimbabwe. Analyst Takura Zhangazha told Al Jazeera that Geza’s opposition is gaining broader traction only because it comes at a time when the country’s national economy is also struggling – which Zimbabweans blame on the ruling government. Any support that Geza’s calls for Mnangagwa to resign gets is not because people believe he will fight for them, he added.
“Mr Geza is representative of [the government] in the public eye,” Zhangazha said. “So he does not have an organic or popular authenticity.”
ZANU-PF officials, as well as Mnangagwa, have called Geza’s taunts “treasonous”. The politician, who has now reportedly gone into hiding, was ousted from the party on March 7. He is wanted by the police on several charges, including “undermining the authority of the president” and for allegedly inciting public violence.
Meanwhile, Mnangagwa has shuffled the country’s national security leadership. General Anselem Sanyatwe, commander of the presidential guard, was fired last week. Earlier, Godwin Matanga, chief of police, and Isaac Moyo, head of the intelligence service, were dismissed.
What happened on Monday?
Geza had, in recent weeks, called for mass demonstrations this week against President Mnangagwa. By Friday, security officials had poured onto the streets, conducting stop-and-search on vehicles in the capital, Harare.
On Monday, some demonstrators gathered at the city’s Robert Mugabe Square, even as social media videos showed armoured tanks rolling down the streets as security was beefed up.
Most people, however, chose to stay at home to avoid potential violence. Businesses and offices were completely shut down across the country, as a result, although authorities had urged people to go to work. Vava, of Crisis Zimbabwe, said many Zimbabweans are fed up with ZANU PF’s power struggles, but that they had protested in their way.
“Zimbabweans feel cheated, and they don’t want to be used again,” Vava said. “But the shutdown was also a success. By choosing to stay at home, what we saw was also Zimbabweans demonstrating, saying that we don’t want to be dragged into your internal battles.”
Meanwhile, those who gathered were forcefully dispersed with tear gas. Police also arrested dozens of others. On Tuesday, officials said they had arrested 95 protesters on charges of “public violence” and “breaches of peace”. Officials said some people were arrested at the site of the demonstrations, while others were picked up because of their social media posts.
State-owned newspapers, such as the Zimbabwe Herald, reported that the protests were a “failure”. Reacting to the low numbers, government spokesperson Farai Muroiwa Marapira said in a post on X that the demonstrators were “put to shame”.
Good morning Zimbabwe. Another day to go forth and work and uplift our country. Already plotters and planners are put to shame. Like we said…
What is loud on social media is barely a whisper in real life.
Quasi journos creating none existant flight numbers and claiming Cde… pic.twitter.com/CvUZ6WzPyF
— Farai Muroiwa Marapira (@marapira_farai) March 31, 2025
Why is the current crisis evoking memories of Robert Mugabe’s ouster?
To many, the current crisis is reminiscent of the fall of the late Robert Mugabe, who held onto power for 37 years before being deposed in a coup in 2017.
Mugabe, who was forced out at the age of 93, led the country’s fight for independence. However, his subsequent rule was characterised by the repression of opposition members, election rigging, corruption and economic stagnancy. He refused to give up the presidency for decades.
Mnangagwa was a longtime ally of Mugabe and served as defence minister and then vice president in the final years of Mugabe’s rule. He had close ties to the military.
However, the two men fell out over who would succeed Mugabe: Mnangwaga was backed by the army on the one hand, while Mugabe wanted to hand over to his wife Grace Mugabe on the other.
On November 6, 2017, Mugabe dismissed Mnangagwa, triggering the beginning of his downfall. A week later, the armed forces seized control, and Mnangagwa took power.
Now, the president, too, appears caught in the same spiral. Although he had once promised to hand over power to Vice President Chiwenga, who was a major player in the Mugabe coup, Mnangagwa has since changed his tune, analysts say.
Chiwenga, who Geza claims to be speaking for, has not publicly stated his desire to run for president or spoken out against Mnangagwa.
Mnangagwa is unlikely to be successful in prolonging his rule because of a citizenry fed up with political machinations and because of the deep internal splits in ZANU-PF, Vava told Al Jazeera.
“People don’t want the 2030 agenda,” he said. “It will be a battle for survival for Mnangagwa.”
