Why most favor a future without Trump or Denmark

Greenland has been thrust into a geopolitical firestorm as U.S. President Donald Trump ramps up his threats to annex the self-governing Danish territory.

But, while Trump says the U.S. needs the huge Arctic island for its national security, and European leaders have responded that security is a collective endeavor, independence for the island of just 57,000 people remains a long-term goal.

Opinion polls have shown that Greenlanders overwhelmingly oppose U.S. control, while a strong majority support independence from Denmark.

The White House has said Trump and his national security team are “actively” discussing a potential offer to buy Greenland — and that while diplomacy is the first option, all options, including military force, were on the table.

“For many years, the majority of Greenlanders have been fighting for our right to represent ourselves,” Aaja Chemnitz, a pro-independence MP and one of two lawmakers in the Danish parliament representing Greenland, told CNBC by video call.

“We say nothing about us without us — and that’s why it’s important for us to still fight for making sure that we have even more autonomy in the time to come,” she added.

Chemnitz said the “U.S. used to be a very close ally just a year ago,” and that Greenlanders wanted to “make sure that we’re not dehumanized, which I think we have been in this whole situation.”

“Greenland never has been for sale and never will be for sale,” she added. “The people are resilient. And I think it’s important to remember that, of course, you can’t buy a country, but you can also not buy a population.”

Greenland was granted greater autonomy over its affairs through the Self-Government Act in 2009, a motion that enables the island the right to hold an independence referendum. Denmark, however, remains responsible for its foreign, defense and security policies.

Lawmakers presented a draft constitution in 2023 for an independent Greenland, but there were no immediate plans to adopt it.

To be sure, most Greenlandic political parties support independence, but disagree over when and how to reach it. Indeed, the independence movement has become something of a balancing act between the island’s ultimate goal of self-determination and the need for Denmark’s financial support for essential welfare services, such as health and education.

Last January, Greenland’s then-Prime Minister Múte Egede said that it was time to take the next step toward independence. His successor, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, who led the center-right Democrats to a surprise victory in parliamentary elections last March, favors a more gradual path.

Chemnitz, a member of the Inuit Ataqatigiit party and chair of the Greenland Committee, told CNBC that the Arctic island’s independence push is a long-term goal, given the need to be on “good economic terms” to maintain living standards.

Trump previously sought to buy Greenland in 2019 during his first term as U.S. president, only to be told the island was not for sale.

Now, the prospect of U.S. military action in Greenland has triggered a strong response from Denmark, with Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen warning that a U.S. attack would mark the end of the NATO military alliance.

The issue has raised alarm in Europe, particularly given that Trump’s renewed interest follows a U.S. military operation in Venezuela to depose that country’s president, Nicolas Maduro on Jan. 3.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday that he intends to hold talks with Danish officials to discuss the Arctic island.

Clayton Allen, head of practice at Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, said that like many externally governed territories, there would always be some political appetite for independence.

“I’m not sure that pressures from the U.S. for greater sovereign control of Greenland are necessarily going to be the way that they want to do that,” Allen told CNBC by video call.

“Put simply, I don’t know that people are going to want to trade one foreign power for another. If you want to be independent, you want to be independent,” he added.

Otto Svendsen, associate fellow with the Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, said external observers should tread carefully when assessing the impact of Trump’s takeover threats on Greenland’s independence movement.

He told CNBC the movement has been “present for decades” and has secured a commitment from the Danish government to respect the results of any independence referendum.

Svendsen added the feeling in Greenland’s capital, Nuuk, was that Trump’s “very overt attempts to bring Greenland closer to the United States” would harm the prospects of independence, as “one of the best cards up the sleeves of the government in Nuuk is to rely on the deterrent value of Denmark.”