“Without a doubt, sports will be the next battleground for streamers, especially in the US.”
Netflix continues its push into live sports by announcing it will broadcast two NFL games on Christmas Day, a move that changes direction and highlights how streamers are targeting live sports as a way to retain subscribers.
The NFL deal follows news that Netflix has paid $5bn (£4bn) to stream WWE’s flagship weekly wrestling show, Raw, for 10 years from January next year.
Netflix isn’t the only one keeping busy in this area.
In an increasingly competitive field, Apple is close to a deal with FIFA to broadcast next summer’s first-ever Club World Cup in the U.S., Britain’s Sky Sports is rolling out a new streaming service that will broadcast up to 100 live events simultaneously and Amazon Prime is turning its attention to the NBA, with plans to show 17 Champions League matches from 2024 to 2025. Meanwhile, Walt Disney Co-owned ESPN is teaming up with Fox Corp and Warner Bros. on a new service called Venu Sports, which will launch later this year.
So why has live sports suddenly become so appealing, what has changed, and what’s next for streamers as they try to cash in?
In 2024, two NFL games on Christmas Day will be broadcast on Netflix (Adam Hunger/Getty Images)
Historically, Netflix has focused more on sports-related documentaries (notably the popular Drive To Survive series) than actual live action, but more recently it has begun to lean more into live action through one-off events like the Netflix Cup featuring Formula 1 racers and professional golfers, and the Netflix Slam in tennis.
The company then signed a lucrative deal in January to broadcast WWE Raw for 10 years, and on July 20 it will stream a boxing match between legendary former world heavyweight champion Mike Tyson and YouTuber Jake Paul.
But their first deal, to broadcast NFL games, one of the most prized assets in US broadcasting, was particularly significant as a break from the past.
“Last year, we decided to bet big on live, targeting huge fan bases across a broad range of genres including comedy, reality TV and sports,” said Bela Bajaria, Netflix’s chief content officer. “No other live event in the world, not even sports, can match the audience numbers that NFL football brings to the table annually.”
(Jeff Spicer – Formula 1/Formula 1 via Getty Images)
Sports rights consultant David Murray said Netflix is making the move because its subscriber numbers have plateaued and live sports is a way to attract new viewers.
“Netflix didn’t have any sports programming at first, then they started doing sports documentaries like Drive To Survive, but there’s an underlying trend that subscriber numbers aren’t growing,” he said. “Live sports can only be of real value if you provide a regular stream of content that people want to watch. It makes a lot of sense because sports brings in audiences and also brings uncertainty. But it would require significant changes to the business model, which could be huge.”
“Netflix is just dipping their toes in the water at this stage. The Christmas Day event is more of a marketing tool to get people to sign up for Netflix over the Christmas period, as it could potentially draw in a different type of audience. It will be interesting to see if this can be dammed up. Once it gets going, it could snowball, but we’re not there yet.”
(Mario Tama/Getty Images)
Jack Genovese, a sports rights expert and research manager at Ampere Analysis, agreed that the NFL deal was groundbreaking for Netflix because, unlike WWE, its shows are unscripted and more unpredictable, but it also signals a shift in the company’s strategy to place more emphasis on engagement.
“For many years, Netflix has been about subscribers, but now it’s much more about time spent watching content,” he said. “Sports can have a big impact on that, which is why their intention to invest in actual sports rights has been the worst-kept secret in the industry.”
He said that like other streaming giants, original sports documentaries have been Netflix’s main focus for growing subscribers, but as the space becomes saturated, broadcasting live games will help it differentiate and provide added value.
He added: “Some of the more established streaming platforms may be better served by single-match or exclusive packages rather than monopolizing the majority of the rights. It is not impossible to rule out Netflix seeking entry into the Premier League in future.”
He also highlighted the risk that it could alienate viewers who are frustrated with having to keep signing up to different platforms to watch their favorite teams or sports in full.
Paolo Pescatore, a media and technology analyst at PP Foresight, agreed that maintaining the support of sports viewers is a delicate balance as streamers turn their attention to live events: With the NFL now on Netflix, fans need seven different services to watch every NFL game.
“Netflix’s NFL deal is interesting,” Pescatore said. “They did a great job with the ‘Quarterback’ (documentary) series, but the NFL clearly needs to be careful not to disrupt the status quo too much, given the guaranteed revenue in a traditional contract. This is a stepping stone to the future. It will ultimately lead to fragmentation of rights, which as we’ve seen in the past, may not necessarily be a good thing for consumers.”
He added: “Without a doubt, sports is the next battleground for streamers, especially in the US. Sports is one of the few genres where people actually want to watch something live and will tune in at a specific time and day of the week. The challenge for streamers is that their business model doesn’t lend itself to live sports. If they’re serious about sports, this is a long-term endeavor.”
Beyond Netflix’s NFL deal, there’s plenty of competition in this crowded market.
Ampere Analysis estimates that streaming platforms will have spent a total of $9.8bn (£7.72m) on sports rights as of 2024.
Apple is reportedly on the verge of signing a $1 billion deal with FIFA for the broadcasting rights to FIFA’s upcoming Club World Cup, a new 32-team tournament set to take place in the United States from June 15 to July 13 next year.
If it goes ahead as expected, it would be Apple’s latest move into live sports, a process that began in 2022 when the company secured a seven-year deal to broadcast Major League Baseball and then Major League Soccer as part of a 10-year, $2.5 billion pact the same year, marking the first time a major U.S. league partnered fully with a technology company.
(Maddy Meyer/Getty Images)
For Murray, Apple is the company to watch, given its enormous wealth and shift towards providing services. “Apple is a company that could become really big one day,” he says. “There’s talk of a Club World Cup and Apple wants to get that. Apple wants global rights, that’s what’s most lucrative for them.”
“The obvious one would be the Premier League. It would cost a lot of money. The reason they didn’t bid last time is because they’re still in the preparation stages. To me, a joint venture between Apple and the Premier League makes a lot of sense, whether it’s the next bid or the one after that.”
Genovese said Apple paying for the FIFA Club World Cup rights would be a big gamble for the company.
“It’s certainly a great event, but I wonder if anyone on your team who isn’t participating will subscribe to Apple TV just to watch it,” he says. “How many people are actually going to say, ‘I’m going to subscribe for that month so I can watch that event’? It’s definitely going to require a massive marketing effort.”
Elsewhere, Disney+ will roll out live ESPN sports on its streaming service to U.S. subscribers next year, while ESPN, Fox Corp. and Warner Bros. in February announced a new sports streaming platform, Venu Sports, due to launch in the fall. Between them, the three companies own about 55% of U.S. sports rights, including the FIFA World Cup, Formula 1, NFL, NBA and MLB.
Live sports have already started to move to streaming services.
Peacock, for example, which is owned by US broadcaster NBC, has a deal with the Premier League, YouTube has acquired the rights to the NFL’s Sunday Ticket package in 2022, paying $14 billion over a seven-year deal, while Amazon has a 10-year deal with the NFL to stream 15 Thursday Night Football games.
(Nick Potts/PA Images via Getty Images)
As part of a rescue package earlier this year, Amazon agreed to invest $115m (£90m) in regional sports operator Diamond Sports Group, which oversees 37 MLB, NHL and NBA teams. It is also laying the framework for a deal to show a number of NBA games with ESPN as the two networks near the end of their nine-year contracts, which expire after the 2024-25 season.
Next season, Amazon will broadcast 17 live UEFA Champions League matches (the first match of which will air on Tuesday night) for three seasons through 2027, while TNT Sports will show 533 other matches. However, after showing 20 matches per season across two December slots in the current cycle, Amazon will no longer broadcast Premier League matches from 2025-26.
Perhaps this is a lesson for DAZN, the video streaming service launched by billionaire Sir Len Blavatnik, which lost more than $1 billion after failing to secure English soccer rights for 2022.
Meanwhile, Comcast-owned Sky has announced it will launch a new Sky Sports+ streaming service in August in a bid to grow its subscriber base. Sky will broadcast up to 100 events across a range of sports on the new service, as well as stream every EFL match on the opening weekend of next season. Sky hopes to feature all 72 EFL teams at least 20 times during the season.
The Premier League has remained loyal to Sky so far, mainly because Sky pays it a significant amount for domestic broadcasting rights in the UK. In the most recent auction, held in December last year, Sky and TNT Sports agreed a record 6.7 billion pounds (8.5 billion dollars) deal to broadcast the Premier League until the end of the 2028-29 season. Sky Sports will also show up to 44 Women’s Super League matches in the 2024-25 season.
But as streaming’s biggest behemoth finally enters the world of live sports, its rivals will be watching with keen interest and making careful plans. their Next move.
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(Top photo: Perry Knotts/Getty Images)
