Afghanistan’s Acting Minister of Refugees and Repatriation Khalil-ur-Rehman Haqqani revealed some startling details in a documentary released on December 29, 2023. He revealed that Pakistani forces had supported the release of former Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud and several other prominent terrorist leaders. This highlights the dual nature of Pakistan’s security agencies. Security agencies claim to be facing challenges due to rising terrorism, especially with security force casualties increasing substantially, yet they continue to support the release of terrorist leaders.
In 2023, Pakistan saw a surge in terrorist activity, with security force casualties reaching their highest level in the past eight years. The collapse of a ceasefire between the government and the TTP in November 2022 frustrated Islamabad. The brief ceasefire was a haphazard attempt by Pakistani authorities to end the 14-year-old conflict with the TTP. After the ceasefire failed, a wave of violence erupted, exemplified by the devastating TTP attack on a mosque in police jurisdiction in Peshawar in January 2023, which claimed nearly 100 lives and sent shock waves across the country.
The TTP’s resurgence underscores the group’s ability to coordinate and reassert its influence in Pakistan. The boldness and frequency of these attacks suggest a carefully planned strategy that tests the effectiveness of Pakistan’s counterterrorism efforts. The rise in terrorist attacks is not only straining Pakistan’s security apparatus but also raising public insecurity. In an atmosphere of uncertainty, the government’s task of maintaining stability in Pakistan becomes more complex and challenging.
The TTP has adopted a new strategy of centralized command but decentralized operations to sow confusion, protect its operatives, and garner political support for its terrorist activities. U.S. Defense Department and UN reports estimate the TTP has between 3,000 and 6,000 fighters in Afghanistan, but its actual strength is unclear due to the group’s scattered cells in Pakistan’s urban areas. According to its annual report last year, the Pakistani Taliban Movement (TTP) claimed responsibility for 881 attacks across Pakistan, killing at least 2,193 Pakistani soldiers.
The TTP’s decentralized operational model allows the group to be evasive and unpredictable, posing a major challenge to Pakistan’s security forces. This approach not only helps it avoid large-scale clashes but also lends itself to effective guerilla warfare. The shift from territorial control to a fluid, cell-based operational approach makes it difficult for Pakistani forces to locate and neutralize TTP members. This shift in tactics reflects the TTP’s ability to adapt and its understanding of evolving security dynamics.
On July 14, 2023, the Pakistan Army’s media wing, the Interservices Public Relations (ISPR), issued a strong statement expressing concern over the safe haven and freedom of operation enjoyed by the TTP in Afghanistan. The statement came following a series of deadly incidents, including the July 12, 2023 TTP attack on a military base in Zhob district, which left nine soldiers dead. Despite Pakistan’s intelligence efforts against terrorists, there has been no significant improvement in the security situation, and attacks by the TTP on Pakistani security forces continue unabated.
The ongoing attacks have exposed weaknesses in Pakistan’s security architecture and placed a heavy strain on the military. The ISPR statement highlights the frustration of the military and the daunting task it faces in countering the TTP’s activities. The inability to find a lasting solution has not only dented military morale but also shaken public confidence in the government’s ability to ensure their security. The relentless nature of these attacks demonstrates the TTP’s operational effectiveness and ability to sustain a protracted insurgency.
In response to the growing terrorist threat, the Prime Minister of Pakistan approved the launch of Operation Azam-e-Isteqam on June 22, 2024. This nationwide counter-terrorism operation involves all stakeholders and covers Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistan-Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoJK). This operation follows an earlier effort launched by the PDM government in April 2023, which did not yield the expected results.
The situation in 2024 is very different from that in 2008, when the TTP was the target of a large-scale military operation for the first time. At the time, the TTP held vast territorial territory. Pakistani security forces conducted operations to eliminate the militants and regain control of the state. However, the TTP no longer maintains the same degree of territorial control, and its fighters are dispersed across the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. This makes a large-scale military operation less feasible. Financial constraints faced by the Pakistani government also limit its support for such a large-scale military operation.
It is clear that the dispersion of TTP militants and Pakistan’s economic challenges have severely limited the military’s ability to conduct large-scale operations. Unlike previous operations that targeted TTP strongholds, the current situation calls for a more complex and strategic approach. The focus is now on intelligence-led operations aimed at dismantling the TTP’s distributed network. However, the effectiveness of these operations is limited due to resource constraints and the difficult terrain of the border areas.
Public support for the military operations against the TTP has also declined significantly. Previous military operations against the TTP have led to widespread displacement. Many displaced people had to be relocated to unfurnished refugee camps. Widespread destruction of homes and loss of livelihoods have infuriated the Pashtun community. Protests directed at both the TTP and the military intervention in areas such as Swat have highlighted this sentiment. The emergence of the Pashtun Tahfuz Movement (PTM), which criticizes military strategies and highlights the suffering of Pashtuns, has further complicated efforts to garner public support for government-led military operations.
