Whatever theatrics play out in the NBA, once 6 p.m. ET rolls around, once free agents start making contact with prospective teams and once a few more trades change the face of the league like a snow globe, July will provide the first case study of how front offices and agents navigate the new calculations and constraints that come with a robust second phase of the collective bargaining agreement.
That’s the ultimate reason Paul George declined his player option and hit the open market. It’s a cold truth that underscores Denver’s predicament in retaining Kentavious Caldwell-Pope after losing Bruce Brown a year ago. That’s why the Warriors, according to sources, tried to find a trade that would allow them to use Chris Paul’s nonguaranteed salary to acquire George, since Golden State would still have precious salary space for George and further bolster a roster centered around Stephen Curry.
It doesn’t matter if Steve Ballmer or Joe Lacob have unlimited pockets and are willing to pay the old luxury-tax-like fines that come with stepping into the NBA’s new second realm. Being able to make a down payment on that bill doesn’t give a front office a license to suddenly access mid-tier buying power, the ability to tally up payroll in trades, send cash, or use traded-player exceptions, much less frozen draft picks looming like a demon. It’s another thing when the Boston Celtics have six of their top eight players under contract and under 30. The Knicks’ menacing core is even younger and more team-managed. It’s another thing to build a team around aging star veterans who may be playing the final contracts of their illustrious careers.
A league source told Yahoo Sports that the Clippers have made it clear that they are not looking to sign any player, Kawhi Leonard, George or James Harden, for more than three years at this point, giving Los Angeles the flexibility to avoid the second apron penalty in the future. The two sides have spent months exploring an extension similar to the three-year, $153 million contract Leonard signed in January, exchanging various proposals, according to people familiar with the matter. But the crucial fact that the Clippers will not have a fourth year, with the difference being as much as $60 million, prompted George to listen to offers from the Philadelphia 76ers and Orlando Magic in addition to his current team, the Clippers, once free agency began, sources confirmed to Yahoo Sports. The reality that trading George to Golden State would bring in 75 cents on the dollar, but would still cost $1 and the second apron issue would remain, was a key deterrent to the failed trade talks.
According to sources, the 76ers and Magic are both willing to give George a four-year max contract, and the Warriors would do so if George exercises his $48.7 million player option for the upcoming 2024-25 season. There’s another team floundering around the periphery of this situation. The Utah Jazz have all the cap space, veteran salary and exorbitant draft capital to add a former Mikal Bridges-type co-star. Sources say New York spent six years’ worth of first-round draft pick assets on the Villanova product, which the team tried to acquire this week before rounding out a roster that already includes All-Star forward Lauri Markkanen. That seems to have been Utah’s dreamiest plan this summer, according to league figures with knowledge of the situation, to trade one or two real pieces and then lure George out of Los Angeles for Salt Lake City. It would be similar to how George ended up in Los Angeles in 2019 (the Clippers sent a purse to Oklahoma City for George, then brought Leonard with them to sign him), but it’s highly unlikely that George will make it happen.
George’s reluctance to leave Los Angeles isn’t due to a feud with president Lawrence Frank or disdain for playing with Leonard or Harden, sources say. It’s more that the 34-year-old All-Star, who can’t sign a five-year contract because of the NBA’s over-38 rule, is taking one last swing at the free agent market to cash in. If George leaves the Clippers, Harden is still expected to sign a three-year deal on his own, and Los Angeles is looking for a way to get under the second apron to free up access to a mid-level player for $5.2 million in taxpayer money, sources say. The Clippers will find a contract extension for center Ivica Zubac later, sources say.
What are the Golden State Warriors’ plans?
The Warriors are in a tough spot, having already agreed to push back the guaranteed date on the final year of Paul’s contract and bring his signing bonus down to $30 million, according to league sources. Golden State is also a trade target for Andrew Wiggins, so there’s still a lot of room for maneuver, according to sources. Options could range from releasing a pick for Brandon Ingram to potentially acquiring a pick for Zach LaVine, sources said. But if a deal doesn’t get done and the Warriors end up losing Klay Thompson, as Golden State and league sources currently envision, the Warriors are considering their best options, including a full mid-level exception that Golden State could potentially use, sources said.
This market is one of the interesting aspects of this offseason, as it seems like the majority of NBA teams plan to spend less than the full $12.8 million MLE. Another aspect of the new CBA is that front offices are allowed to not use their MLE this summer and use it as a traded player exception to acquire a new player with a salary at or below that amount. A player’s willingness to take $6 million could be the difference between whether a player like Buddy Hield gets a salary above the $5.2 million taxpayer MLE. If Hield were to take that amount from, say, Golden State, the Warriors could sign a player for $4 million above the NBA veteran minimum or pocket that extra space as a TPE.
And it’s becoming an attractive mid-market. Especially since rumors are circulating among league insiders that Thompson would be willing to accept that amount to join the Lakers or Clippers. That would be a significant drop from the two-year, roughly $50 million offer Thompson turned down at the start of last season. Sources say that if George turns down the Sixers, he remains on Philadelphia’s shortlist of potential No. 2 wing options. Dallas appears to be the one to consider if it doesn’t. of Sources say they are Thompson’s most likely candidates.
Dallas has a lot of work to do on the perimeter. The Mavericks already traded Tim Hardaway Jr.’s expiring $16.1 million contract to Detroit for three second-round picks and brought back 24-year-old swingman Quentin Grimes, who is in the final year of his rookie deal, on a $4.3 million deal. Adding Grimes, depending on how you look at it, could also allow Dallas to part ways with Josh Green and bolster the Mavericks’ championship-contender roster with more championship-caliber talent. In a sign-and-trade scenario that would pay Green’s exit salary, Dallas could also get a nice contract for Thompson.
The Mavericks have been thinking quite creatively about how to bolster their roster, with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving at the helm, who made it to the NBA Finals, and keeping excellent wing defender Derrick Jones Jr. The first step was to move Hardaway. Sources say that if Caldwell-Pope had agreed to a $15.4 million contract for the 2024-25 season, the Mavericks would have been in the running to acquire him in a trade with Denver. At this point, Thompson seems like the most likely veteran wing to join Dallas.
The arrangement was originally intended as a compensation package to get Jones out of his 2023-24 minimum salary contract, but the situation is likely to be complicated by the fact that the agile wing terminated his previous agent contract on June 26. According to players’ association documents, Jones technically cannot sign with a new agent until 15 days after submitting the paperwork to change agents, well after the NBA’s moratorium period has expired. This is an evolving situation worth monitoring.
The Nuggets’ optioning of the potential loss of Caldwell-Pope plays into all of the above. Denver was also a team that was looking at ways to sneak into contention to acquire George in an opt-in trade, a league source confirmed to Yahoo Sports. Sources said Denver is now prepared to lose the veteran two-way wing who was a crucial fifth starter for the Nuggets’ bid for the 2023 NBA title. Both Philadelphia and Orlando are said to have strong interest in Caldwell-Pope, and league sources said both teams could offer Caldwell-Pope a two-year, $50 million-plus deal.
The Nuggets are also considering a trade for backup big man Zeke Nnaji, sources said. Denver had taken a chance on the 23-year-old Arizona native as the obvious backup behind Nikola Jokic before trading up to select Dayton center Darron Holmes II as his replacement in Wednesday’s NBA draft. Nnaji’s $8 million salary, sources said, could be part of a release package to bring back Vasilije Micic, the Serbian point guard from Charlotte who Denver has been targeting.
If Denver moves Nagy, the Nuggets would be under the No. 2 apron and have access to a taxpayer $5.2 million MLE. One player the Nuggets were considering for the role was Russell Westbrook, according to sources, but the veteran opted to sign a $4 million contract with the Clippers.
Another veteran to consider in that ballpark is Dario Saric, who the Nuggets have coveted for a long time, according to sources.
With Denver not extending a qualifying offer to Collin Gillespie, the former Villanova University point guard is expected to draw two-way interest from Atlanta, Charlotte, Minnesota and Phoenix with a chance to go two-way and potentially make the roster eventually, sources said. NBA sources said the Suns have negotiated minimum salaries with everyone from Kyle Lowry to Monte Morris, including a possible reunion with Paul if he is ultimately waived by the Warriors.
