Why the EU vote is just the first step in political change

Good morning. Today the European Commission will inform member states that Ukraine and Moldova have met the conditions for starting formal accession negotiations. However, this does not guarantee that Hungary will agree.

Today, our elections team hears from a veteran Member of the European Parliament about the looming battle following the EU election results, and I report on a forthright message on supporting Ukraine on the anniversary of D-Day.

Have a nice weekend.

Party People

Voting is underway for the European Parliament elections, but party dynamics are likely to continue to shift until the results are known on Sunday night. write Andy Bounds and Alice Hancock.

Background: Citizens across Europe are electing a new parliament that will have a say in approving the next EU leaders and shaping future policy in hot-button areas such as enlargement, competitiveness, migration and climate.

Voting began in the Netherlands yesterday, and exit polls showed that the far-right Freedom Party had jumped from one to seven seats, while the joint Labour and Green candidate came out on top with eight seats, one less than in 2019.

But even after all the votes are counted, the political situation will not be clear.

The centre-right is likely to win a slim majority, the far right will gain and the Greens will lose. But a key question will be which candidate the “core” votes for as the new European Commission president, with Klaus Welle, who was secretary-general of the parliament from 2009 to 2022, saying Ursula von der Leyen is the favourite.

Welle, who previously led the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), told the Financial Times that some national parties will be looking for new European allies, with the big question being whether the far-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and the far-right Identity and Democrats (ID) party could join forces and have any real influence.

Vere considers these parties “products of instability.” Marine Le Pen in France, whose National Rally has a majority in the ID, wants to “move to a more respectable political environment” and has reached out to the ECR and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Italian Brothers party.

Welle suggested that von der Leyen’s European People’s Party should cooperate with the European Commission but alienate its more right-wing members. “If they say that constructive people on the right are going to be excluded, [single] “I think the bloc on the right is something we’re all going to regret,” he said.

Another notable group is the liberal “Renewal” group, which Welle considers a “weak formation.” Valérie Heyer, leader of France’s Onward party, wants to expel the Dutch VVD for joining the Dutch Party for Freedom-led government. “Heyer says Onward cannot sit in the same group as the VVD. So Onward has to find something new?” Welle asks.

After the European party shuffling, von der Leyen will need to convince enough “friends and foes” to secure a second majority. Support from mainstream centre parties seems likely, but all eyes will be on the Greens and the European Liberals.

Chart of the Day: Musical Chairs

Polls predict that a centre-right majority could be achieved in the European Parliament for the first time. Click here for the full interactive graph and five things to watch as the results start to come in.

Echoes of history

Eight decades after US, British and allied troops landed in Europe to battle a vengeful dictator, US President Joe Biden has made it clear the US has no intention of doing so again.

Background: Leaders gathered in Normandy yesterday to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings that ultimately liberated Western Europe from Nazi Germany. Also in attendance was Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whose country faces an invasion by Russia in February 2022.

“Ukraine was invaded by a tyrant hell-bent on control…. We cannot imagine bowing to a tyrant, we cannot imagine bowing to a dictator,” Biden said in his speech, “and we will forget what happened on these hallowed shores.”

The Normandy landings, the largest naval assault in history, “were a powerful demonstration of how alliances, true alliances, make us stronger,” Biden said. “It’s a lesson that we as Americans must never forget.”

The underlying warning was stark: His rival in November’s election, former President Donald Trump, has vowed not to defend European allies that don’t spend enough on their defenses, and his longstanding isolationist rhetoric has frightened EU leaders who worry he will sever transatlantic ties forged in World War II.

“Isolationism was not the answer 80 years ago, and it’s not the answer today,” Biden said.

President Zelenskyy, who shared an emotional moment with Normandy landings veterans at a ceremony yesterday, is due to discuss Europe’s current war with French President Emmanuel Macron today, who is expected to outline France’s future military involvement in Kiev.

President Macron said last night that this would also include Mirage fighter jets.

What to see today

1. French President Emmanuel Macron hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

2. Voting in the European Parliament elections in Ireland and the Czech Republic.

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