Amidst the jubilation over the recent landslide victory of the TMC in the West Bengal Lok Sabha elections, there seems to be some concern among party leaders. The TMC camp is concerned that although the party won 29 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats to the BJP’s 12, its candidates trailed in several ministerial constituencies, and the opposition parties are ahead in many urban local body constituencies in the state.
In the Kolkata Municipal Corporation (KMC) area, out of the 144 wards, the TMC currently has 138 councillors, while the BJP has three and the Left-National Congress alliance has three. The TMC won both the Lok Sabha seats in Kolkata, but its lead in both seats was lower than in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The main opposition BJP was leading in 48 KMC wards, while the Left-National Congress alliance was leading in three. The TMC was leading in 93 wards.
“Our party is lagging behind in the constituencies of several strong KMC legislators. For instance, Mayor Debasis Kumar of ward 85 is a state legislator from Rashbehari assembly seat and also TMC district president for south Kolkata. Our party is also lagging behind in ward 8 of state minister Shashi Pandya and CM’s confidant Pooja Pandya,” a TMC leader said.
“The situation is the same in ward 31 of Paresh Pal’s Beleghata constituency. The BJP has also taken the lead in ward 70 of parishad member Asim Kumar Basu and ward 72 of mayor Sandeep Bakshi’s councillor. Interestingly, these two wards come under Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s Bhavanipur constituency and the TMC was trailing in five wards and leading in only three,” he said.
He added, “The BJP also led the TMC in the constituencies of senior legislators and ward presidents like Jui Biswas (Tollygunge Assembly constituency, ward 81), Sushanta Ghosh (Kasba, ward 108), Sudeep Porre (Behala Purba, ward 123), Sadhana Bose (Jorasanko, ward 38) and Sushmita Bhattacharya (Bhabanipur, ward 63). It also led TMC MPs Sudarshana Mukhopadhyay in ward 64 (Bhabanipur Assembly constituency) and Bishwarup Dey in ward 48 (Chowringhee Assembly constituency).”
Despite winning the Kolkata Uttar Lok Sabha constituency by a margin of 92,560 votes, the TMC trailed by 7,401 votes in Industries Minister Sashi Pandya’s Jorasanko assembly seat. In Bhabanipur assembly seat too, the TMC’s lead has shrunk to 8,297 votes from the 58,835 votes Mamata had bagged in the 2021 by-elections.
An analysis of election data showed that the BJP was also leading in many municipalities, including Bolpur, Gobardanga, Krishnanagar, Balughat, Raiganj, Bardhaman, English Bazar and Jhargram.
North 24 Palgans
Apart from Kolkata, the ruling party is also concerned about the results in suburban areas, including the four municipalities under the Barasat Lok Sabha seat. Of the 35 constituencies in Barasat Municipal Corporation, the TMC was ahead in only six. In Ashokenagar Municipal Corporation, it was ahead in only six of the 23 constituencies. In Habra Municipal Corporation, the parliamentary constituency of jailed former food minister Jyotipriya Malick, the TMC was trailing in all constituencies. In Madhyamgram Municipal Corporation, the party was ahead of the BJP in only 18 of the 28 constituencies.
The ruling party is also facing poor support in all 22 wards of Bangaon city, whose former mayor Shankar Adhya is in jail in an alleged ration scam case, which several TMC leaders believe could be the main reason for the party’s demise in the city.
In Gobardanga municipality in North 24 Palghanth district, the TMC is lagging behind in 15 of the 17 wards. Besides corruption allegations against some of its members, TMC leaders believe the party has failed to deliver public services in the region.
South Bengal
In Bardhaman-Poorba assembly constituency, the TMC’s Sharmila Sarkar won by a margin of over 160,000 votes, but she lost ground in all three urban areas of the constituency – Katwa, Kalna and Dainghat – which the party attributed to organisational weaknesses as well as voter dissatisfaction with public services.
Apart from this, the TMC is also lagging behind in several other key municipalities, right from Jangalmahal in Jhargram (under Jhargram Assembly constituency) to Alipurduar and Balughat Assembly constituency in north Bengal.
Of the 17 wards in Jhargram city, the BJP was leading in 11 wards while the TMC was leading in just six.
Four TMC members, Partha Chatterjee, Jyotipriya Malick, Jibankrishna Saha and Manik Bhattacharya, had been in jail in connection with an alleged school staff recruitment and distribution scam. Saha was released on bail just before the Lok Sabha elections, in which the TMC won the Baharatpur Lok Sabha seat by 85,022 votes, while the BJP led by 558 votes in Saha’s Bharwan parliamentary constituency.
The same was repeated in Malik Assembly constituency in Habra where the TMC trailed behind by 19,933 votes despite winning the Barasat Assembly seat by a margin of 1,14,189 votes.
However, the TMC managed to grab a lead in the constituencies of Partha Chatterjee (Behala Paschim MP from South Kolkata Assembly constituency) and Manik Bhattacharya (Parasipara MP from Krishnanagar Assembly constituency).
North Bengal
North Bengal had been slipping away from TMC control since the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Though it made some recovery in the 2021 state assembly elections, the latest Lok Sabha poll results showed the TMC losing all but one seat (Cooch Behar) while the BJP won six seats in the region.
In Malda district, where the BJP and Indian National Congress won one seat each, the TMC is trailing in all 12 assembly constituencies despite winning eight seats in the 2021 state assembly elections. This includes Minister of State for Home Affairs Sabina Yasmin’s Motabari constituency, where the ruling party is trailing by 45,688 votes, and Minister Tajmul Hossain’s assembly constituency Harishchandrapur, where it is trailing by 4,343 votes. The Indian National Congress is leading in six constituencies in the district, while the BJP is leading in the other six.
Commenting on the micro-analysis highlights of the polls, BJP leader and KMC MP Sajal Ghosh asserted, “Most of the TMC politicians are not liked by the common man. The BJP has won more votes wherever it cannot buy voters, especially in urban areas where the people are economically better off than rural areas and are also more aware of what is happening in India and the world.”
Reacting to this, TMC leader Shantanu Sen said, “The situation in state assembly elections and Lok Sabha elections is different. This result will not be repeated in state assembly elections. But the party must investigate why this happened.”
Sujan Chakraborty of the CPI(M), who lost in the Dum Dum Lok Sabha constituency, said, “Urban people are more independent-minded and voted against the TMC but most of them went to the BJP. It is our fault that they did not choose us as an alternative. But this has been a trend since the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the BJP is getting more votes in urban areas than rural areas.”
