Welcome to the online edition From the Political Deskis an evening newsletter bringing you the latest coverage and analysis from the election campaign, the White House and Congress from the NBC News political team.
In today’s edition, national political reporters Bridget Bowman and Henry J. Gomez explore how key Senate candidates are reacting to Donald Trump’s conviction, plus senior political editor Mark Murray breaks down what early polls following Trump’s conviction tell us, and what they don’t.
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Hush-money ruling tests Senate nominees’ stance on Trump
By Bridget Bowman and Henry J. Gomez
Donald Trump’s conviction in the New York hush-payment case is shaping up to be one of the first big tests for lower-tier candidates trying to navigate the turmoil of running alongside a controversial former president.
Republican candidates across the Senate battlegrounds came out in support of Trump after a Manhattan jury found him guilty of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records last week, in a case that many criticized as “election interference,” “sham,” “fraud” and “political persecution.”
But while Republicans have rushed to back Trump, many Democrats, facing an uncertain political climate and knowing they will need the support of Trump’s supporters in key elections, want to focus on their own states and other issues rather than jumping on the conviction bandwagon.
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At least two Republican Senate candidates began running new ads Monday seeking to further push the ruling.
In Montana, Republican Tim Sheehy has released a new ad that claims his leading Senate opponent, Democratic incumbent Jon Tester, “supported the witch hunt against Joe Biden every step of the way,” and the ad will air on television, according to a source familiar with the strategy.
In Ohio, Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno released a digital ad criticizing Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown for “refusing to condemn the politically motivated witch hunt against Biden.”
It’s no coincidence that Moreno and Sheehy are leaning into the ruling to galvanize Trump supporters in Ohio and Montana. Following the vacancies in West Virginia, both states are prime opportunities for Republicans to retake Senate seats this year. Trump won Montana by 16 points and Ohio by 8 points in 2020. Republicans need a net gain of two seats to take control of the Senate (and one if Trump wins the White House, since the vice president holds the tiebreaking vote in the Senate).
Tester and Brown had similarly muted reactions to last week’s ruling.
“I am not a lawyer or a judge, but I have said from the beginning that no one is above the law,” Brown said in a statement. “Ultimately, our justice system will decide and the American people will decide in November.”
“Senator Tester respects the judicial process and believes everyone should be treated fairly in court, and voters will have the opportunity to express their opinion on the ballot in November,” a spokesman told the Montana Free Press.
Read more about how Senate candidates are responding to President Trump’s ruling →
What the first polls since Trump’s conviction show – and don’t show
Mark Murray
News organizations and polling agencies released multiple surveys over the weekend to gauge the political climate following Trump’s conviction.
In the wake of this historic ruling, here are three lessons learned from various national studies.
The majority agrees with the ruling. A CBS News/YouGov poll found that 57% of adults said the jury in the Trump trial reached the right verdict, a finding supported by a Morning Consult poll showing 54% of registered voters who agreed with the verdict and an ABC News/Ipsos poll showing 50% of adults said the verdict was correct.
These results are consistent with national polls taken before the verdict, which consistently found a slight majority saying the charges against Trump were serious and that he was being tried to the same standard as anyone else charged with those crimes.
The Republican Party remains firmly behind Trump. The headline of a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Saturday said one in 10 Republicans said they were less likely to vote for Trump after the verdict, but a frank warning: these voters are clearly a minority within the party.
In fact, the same poll found that 55% of Republican voters said the ruling had no impact on their vote, and 34% said the ruling made them more likely to vote for Trump.
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Moreover, the finding that 1 in 10 Republicans said they would be less likely to vote for Trump was roughly consistent with an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll conducted before the verdict: In that poll, conducted May 21-23, 10% of Republicans said they would be less likely to vote if Trump was convicted, 25% said they would be more likely, and 68% said it wouldn’t make any difference.
Don’t get me wrong: even a small percentage of Republicans defecting from Trump could have a decisive effect five months from now, but the key takeaway right now is that 9 in 10 Republicans support Trump in the Reuters/Ipsos poll.
The overall political environment hasn’t changed much. That may be the biggest conclusion yet from early post-conviction polls. Two polls, Reuters/Ipsos and Morning Consult, released results for the Biden-Trump race after the verdict. Both showed swings in Biden’s favor, but within the margin of error, they were similar to other national surveys seen before the verdict.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll of registered voters has Biden at 41% to Trump at 39% (previously Biden at 40% to Trump at 40%).
Morning Consult poll of registered voters: Biden 45%, Trump 44% (previously Trump 44%, Biden 42%).
Additionally, the ABC News/Ipsos poll found that favorability ratings for Trump and Biden remained essentially unchanged from a March survey.
Biden could see a 2-3 point uptick in support in November, which could prove decisive. Still, national polls showing 41%-39% or 44%-42% don’t tell us who will win; they only suggest it will be a close race (especially under the Electoral College). Moreover, a conviction of Trump is unlikely to be the last big development in the presidential race.
More lessons to learn from polls after Trump’s ruling →
🗞️ Today’s top news
- ⚖️ Another week, another trial: The Delaware trial of President Hunter Biden’s son, who faces three firearms-related charges, began with jury selection on Monday. Continue reading →
- ☑️ He is running: Indicted Senator Bob Menendez (DN.J) plans to run for reelection as an independent amid his bribery trial. Read more →
- 📝 Border Battles: Joe Biden is expected to sign an executive order on Tuesday to temporarily close the border if cases surge. Read more →
- 🛑 Wait a moment: A senior Israeli official said Biden’s description of Israel’s ceasefire proposal was “not accurate.” This came before the Israel Defense Forces announced on Monday that the deaths of four Israeli hostages held by Hamas had been confirmed. Read more →
- ⚠️ Warning: The new head of the National Security Agency told The Wall Street Journal he is concerned that China is preparing to launch future cyberattacks against the infrastructure of the US and its allies. Read more →
- ‼️Upset Alert: Puerto Rico Governor Pedro Pierluisi lost his primary election to Rep. Jennifer Gonzalez, the island’s resident governor and a non-voting member of the House of Representatives. Continue reading →
- 🏳️🌈 Barrier Breaker: This Pride Month, NBC News is highlighting 30 LGBTQ political leaders who are breaking historic barriers. Continue reading →
That’s all from the Politics Desk. If you have any comments, please email us here. politicsnewsletters@nbcuni.com
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