The big question coming from abroad this week is what the results of recent global elections suggest about the U.S. election in November. Will U.S. politics become embroiled in the anti-incumbency, anti-establishment sentiment seen elsewhere in the 2024 election cycle, upending a long-held American conventional wisdom that incumbent officeholders are hard to replace? And what will this mean for the presidential race and the contested presidential election? Joe Biden Former President Donald TrumpWas it the excitement from last week’s debate?
Already this year, incumbents have lost their majorities in South Africa and India, and Senegal’s elections have brought an outsider to power. Claudia Scheinbaum This week’s French elections, and a British election that almost certainly marks the end of Conservative government, are shaping a fundamental shift in incumbent politics that looks set to be a key guidepost for the US elections in November.
It seems clear that the story emerging from the current election cycle is one of the long COVID pandemic. Persistent inflation, prolonged high interest rates, cost of living pressures and soaring unemployment rates are shaping voting behaviour. Whatever politicians and Treasury statistics tell us, voters around the world are finding themselves with looser purse strings than before the pandemic. In 2024, that perception will become reality, spelling crisis for incumbents.
The rethinking of post-pandemic economic recovery is taking place this election season, but it may be pushing voters from the center to the extremes. One of the headlines from last month’s European Parliament elections was the retention of the center, but from another perspective, the rise of the right is hard to miss. Whether you call it pragmatism, tactical populism, or whatever, far-right and far-left parties and politicians are finding their way into governments from Italy to Argentina. These movements are now targeting France, the UK, and the US.
The British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak He called a general election for July 4, but there was something sinister about choosing a date that would likely mark “independence” from 14 years of Conservative rule – a startling period that masks a downward trend since 2021 that began with the 2016 Brexit referendum. Sunak’s sudden call Nigel Farage and the right-wing Reform England Party. Latest Pollis on the brink of overtaking the Conservatives into second place, meaning that while Labour is gearing up for victory, the most dominant party for nearly 15 years is facing a political event of near extinction.
While the US party system may be on firmer footing in this election than in the UK, parallels can still be drawn with the US election. It has long been said that US politics is becoming more polarised, with the rift between left and right becoming deeper and with fewer points of convergence.According to a poll conducted 10 years ago,In 2014, the percentage of Americans expressing consistently conservative or consistently liberal views doubled in 20 years. The story of 2014 was not only a story of polarization, but also a partisan story. A decade ago, people identified more strongly as conservative (or liberal) and Republican (or Democrat) than ever before. Jump to today and it is almost self-evident that there is little in common between the two political sides and the gap is widening. According to the American National Election Study,Latest DataPolarization of sentiment has accelerated over the past decade: Currently, only 21% of Democrats have favorable feelings toward Republicans, and only 18% of Republicans have favorable feelings toward Democrats.
As a result of these trends, President Joe Biden He is attempting to move left on certain issues, addressing the risk of younger, more progressive voters as well as “apathetic” voters. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trumphas stuck to its (economic) “bloodbath” message that appeals to its base, rather than trying to appeal to more moderate voters. In a sign of the times, vote A May survey found that “political extremism and threats to democracy” ranked second only to the economy as the most important issue facing the country ahead of the November election, and, in worrying news for Biden’s reelection campaign, voters tend to trust Trump more than the president, at least when it comes to the economy.
Politics may be cyclical. But cycles can span generations. With nearly half the world’s population voting this year, who becomes a leader and what policies they enact at home will have repercussions beyond borders for years to come. The post-pandemic reckoning taking place in India, South Africa and Mexico is gathering momentum and will hit Europe this week. By November, the United States could be caught up in this global tide, pushing disaffected voters from their familiar middle to the poles and spelling bad news for incumbent administrations.
Dr Lindsay Newman is Head of Global Macro and Geopolitics at Eurasia Group and is based in London. She writes the “Views on America” column for GZERO.
